Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

Using GPS-data to determine optimum electric vehicle ranges: A Michigan case study

Fuel-switching personal transportation from gasoline to electricity offers many advantages, including lower noise, zero local air pollution, and petroleum-independence. But alleviations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more nuanced, due to many factors, including the car’s battery range. We use GPS-based trip data to determine use type-specific, GHG-optimized ranges. The dataset comprises 412 cars and 384,869 individual trips in Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. We use previously developed algorithms to determine driver types, such as using the car to commute or not. Calibrating an existing life cycle GHG model to a forecast, low-carbon grid for Ann Arbor, we find that the optimum range varies not only with the drive train architecture (plugin-hybrid versus battery-only) and charging technology (fast versus slow) but also with the driver type. Across the 108 scenarios we investigated, the range that yields lowest GHG varies from 65 km (55+ year old drivers, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid) to 158 km (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only). The optimum GHG reduction that electric cars offer – here conservatively measured versus gasoline-only hybrid cars – is fairly stable, between 29% (16–34 year old drivers, overnight charging, battery-only) and 46% (commuters, ultrafast charging, plugin-hybrid). The electrification of total distances is between 66% and 86%. However, if cars do not have the optimum range, these metrics drop substantially. We conclude that matching the range to drivers’ typical trip distances, charging technology, and drivetrain is a crucial pre-requisite for electric vehicles to achieve their highest potential to reduce GHG emissions in personal transportation.     

栏杆基石对闭口箱梁桥梁涡振性能影响的机理

为研究检修道栏杆基石对桥梁涡激振动性能的影响,依托中国某主跨808 m的超大跨度闭口箱梁加劲梁悬索桥,通过主梁大比例节段模型弹性悬挂测振测压风洞试验获取模型风致振动响应和表面各测点压力时程数据,测试原设计断面在±5°攻角范围内的涡振性能,对比分析3种不同栏杆基石位置和高度工况下主梁涡振响应性能和桥面测点脉动压力系数均值、均方差、压力功率谱以及局部气动力和总体气动力的相关性。研究结果表明：依托工程主梁设计断面发生了显著的竖向和扭转涡激共振,且扭转涡振显著超出规范允许值,主梁涡振性能随来流风攻角的增大而变差。主梁表面实测脉动压力数据分析显示,由于栏杆和基石的阻挡,箱梁上表面气流分离后在后部再附,导致上表面前部和中后部发生了强烈的压力脉动。上表面前部、后部以及下表面迎风区斜腹板局部气动力与总体气动力具有很强的相关性,这也是导致主梁发生显著扭转涡振的根本原因。将栏杆基石移至桥面板边沿显著减小了上、下表面压力脉动,上表面前部和后部气动力相关性被破坏,可以大幅抑制涡振;将栏杆基石移至桥面板边沿,并降低栏杆基石高度抑制了气流在上表面后部的再附现象,断面压力脉动被削弱,局部气动力和总体气动力相关性被完全破坏,从而有效抑制涡振。     

中心城区路网优化策略研究 ——以沧州市为例

为解决中心城区道路拥堵问题,分析了城区交通拥堵形成的主要原因,并基于此提出中心城区路网优化策略。以沧州市中心城区为例,详细阐述了其路网优化设计的基本思路和路网布局,最终得出沧州市中心城区路网优化设计方案。     

泡沫轻质土在路桥衔接处路基处理中的应用

泡沫轻质土作为近年来常用的一种新型材料,具有轻质性、整体性、抗压性、耐久性、环保性等良好的工程特性。与传统填料相比,泡沫轻质土的抗压及高强特性,对工后沉降的控制更具优势。特别当采用泡沫轻质土对路桥衔接段路基进行处理时,可大幅降低填土荷重,减少工后沉降及影响深度。现结合工程实例,详细阐述了泡沫轻质土在路桥衔接处路基处理中,采用的主要设计技术指标、设计要点及施工要点,为该材料在工程领域推广应用提供参考。     

基于体能消耗规律的游憩道路规划建设

随着当前社会经济的进步,我国旅游行业发展极为迅速,人们休闲意识的提升,旅游以及游憩活动在人们日常生活中逐步增多,而游憩作为人们旅游的重要组成内容,游憩道路必须结合人们体能消耗规律进行实时规划建设,虽然目前人类交通方式的多元化使得游憩活动空间障碍得以有效减少,但徒步游览仍是大部分观光型景区及游憩区的主要活动方式,这个过程中人们游憩道路过长,体能消耗所带来的疲劳感往往会导致其自身游览满意度降低,甚至对自身健康带来一定安全隐患,且老人和幼儿等特殊人群活动时间及活动方式有限,也使其对游憩道路要求更高。对基于体能消耗规律的游憩道路规划建设,进行分析探讨,并对其做相应整理和总结。     

西安北辰大道北延快速化改造总体方案研究

对西安市北辰大道北延伸快速化改造进行了总体方案研究。从快速路功能定位、建设条件、控制因素等方面对渭北片区交通进行了分析,并对交通量进行预测。结合大西安快速路体系规划及西铜一级路在路网中的功能定位,进行线位方案论证。根据现状控制因素,结合规划红线,确定横断面设计方案,并对沿线主要相交道路进行节点方案研究。     

武汉市老旧社区海绵化改造经验总结

老旧社区海绵化改造是民生工程和生态工程,但也是海绵城市建设过程中的难点。通过总结武汉市青山试点区海绵城市建设经验,提出老旧社区海绵化改造需要重点关注的五大要点:问题导向和目标导向相结合;深入开展现场调研;先民生再提升;加强宣传沟通;加强后期运维管理。以期为其他城市提供参考。     

城市道路网可行性研究中CIVIL 3D应用浅谈

以武汉航空企业总部区域市政配套工程(四期)为例,采用AutoCAD Civil 3D计算道路和场地土石方,并与传统设计软件EICAD进行了比较。对Civil 3D的运用进行了简单的探索。     

宜昌市夜明珠路总体方案研究

结合宜昌BRT(快速公交系统)建设对宜昌市夜明珠路进行改造,受众多因素控制,道路改造难度较高。介绍了工程建设条件及总体设计方案。总体方案结合路线两侧现状地形、控制因素等不同特点,将路线分为沿河线段和合流线段两个典型路段,并进行方案比选,综合各方面因素,得出了推荐方案。