连锁零售业库存／配送一体化决策优化模型与算法

针对在一个区域内拥有一个配送中心和n个在地理位置上分散的连锁分店的连锁零售业．建立VMI思想下适合于A类商品和一些重要的B类和C类商品的单一商品确定型需求的库存／配送一体化优化模型，并采用逐步迭代的方法对模型进行求解，可得出使系统在一定时期总成本最小的经济订购批量，最后用一个算例使连锁零售业库存，配送一体化决策在物流成本节约方面的优越性得以验证。     

基于加权Kendall相关系数和序贯代理模型的有限元模型修正

为了提高桥梁结构有限元模型修正的效率和效果，提出基于加权Kendall相关系数和序贯代理模型的有限元模型修正方法。首先，建立基于目标响应误差和待修正设计参数灵敏度的加权Kendall相关系数指标，并采用凝聚层次聚类算法，合理确定待修正设计参数的数量和位置，保证待修正设计参数对目标响应具有合适的解耦能力；其次，为解决传统一次性代理模型法在构造代理模型过程中产生的欠采样或者过采样的问题，采用基于FLOLA-Voronoi通用序贯设计策略的序贯代理模型法，提高构造代理模型过程中试验设计样本的利用率和模型修正效率；最后，根据一座斜拉桥的静动力荷载试验数据进行有限元模型修正。结果表明：基于FLOLA-Voronoi算法的序贯代理模型能够合理地确定构造代理模型所需的样本数量和位置，使得在相同样本数量的情况下，序贯代理模型比一次性代理模型具有稍好的精度指标；采用加权Kendall相关系数指标的聚类方法可以得到具有合适解耦能力的待修正设计参数，使得修正前大误差目标响应的误差显著下降，小误差目标响应的误差基本都处于合理范围内，有效地降低了目标响应的整体误差；同时，有限元理论静动力响应与实测静动力响应的平均误差分别由5.56%、8.43%降低至1.87%、3.41%，并且相较于常规方法，修正精度更好，所提方法可以用于桥梁结构有限元模型修正，可得到准确的桥梁结构数值模型。     

铁道车辆轴箱弹簧断裂故障对动力学性能的影响

车辆运行过程中,当轴箱弹簧突发断裂故障,会造成动力学状态和性能突变,一系悬挂刚度突然减小,暂时失去承载能力,会威胁车辆行车安全。结合整车的动力学仿真,建立了轴箱弹簧断裂过程的力学模型,对整个断裂过程进行仿真,模拟了轴箱弹簧突然断裂工况下车辆动力学性能变化,分析了轴箱弹簧断裂条件下车辆直线行车安全性以及曲线通过安全性。计算分析结果表明:轴箱弹簧突然断裂导致一系悬挂刚度剧变,引起轮轨垂向力先减小后增大,轮重减载率、脱轨系数等参数增大直至超限,但对轮轨横向力影响不大。     

基于深度学习的破碎带盾构施工沉降预测分析

为进一步提高复杂地层条件下盾构沉降预测的准确性，以广州地铁7号线1期工程谢村站-钟村站区间盾构工程为依托，针对破碎带盾构隧道沉降控制难题，提出基于深度学习的人工智能预测模型。通过分析开挖面破碎带分布规律，确定将破碎带面积比作为地层特性参数。采用相关系数矩阵分析不同施工参数与破碎带面积比的相关性，确定采用刀盘转矩代表破碎带面积比实时描述地层分布特性。以刀盘转矩、盾尾间隙与注浆量作为输入值，地面沉降作为输出值训练深度学习模型，并利用训练后的深度学习模型进行沉降预测分析。通过分析预测结果与沉降实测值的对比验证预测模型的有效性。     

对于现行公路隧道工程定额的思考和建议

针对在设计及后续服务过程中关于隧道造价方面发现的问题和争议,对2007版《公路工程预算定额》、《公路工程概算定额》提出了笔者的想法,对定额修编工作提出了一些建议。     

Prioritizing bicycle paths in Belo Horizonte City,Brazil: Analysis based on user preferences and willingness considering individual heterogeneity

Using bicycles as a commuting mode has proven to be beneficial to both urban traffic conditions and travelers’ health. In order to efficiently design facilities and policies that will stimulate bicycle use, it is necessary to first understand people’s attitudes towards bicycle use, and the factors that may influence their preferences. Such an understanding will enable reliable predictions of bicycle use willingness level, based on which cycling facility construction can be reasonably prioritized.As people often have different perceptions on exercising, green transportation, and traffic conditions, effects of potentially influencing factors on people’s willingness of using bicycles tend to be highly heterogeneous. This paper uses a random parameter ordered probit model to analyze how travelers’ willingness of using bicycles is influenced by various socio-economic factors in Belo Horizonte City, Brazil, with the consideration of individual heterogeneity. The data was collected through the 2010 bicycle use survey in Belo Horizonte City. Results show that, first, the willingness of using bicycle is favored by middle income class household, and negatively related with commuting time. Second, people who rent apartments tend to be more willing to use bicycles. Third, if a person is currently walking a long time to work, he/she would be most willing to commute with a bicycle in the future. Those currently commuting a relatively short distance by motorcycle and bus follow this group in terms of willingness to commute by bicycle in the future. Car users seem to be difficult to convert to bicycle users. Moreover, the estimation shows clear evidence that significant individual heterogeneity indeed exists, especially for education level, necessitating the consideration of such an effect. With the calibrated model, residents’ willingness of using bicycle commuting is then estimated for the entire Belo Horizonte City using the 2010 Census and the 2012 O/D survey data. The results are cross validated using the bicycle path preference information, also obtained from the 2010 bicycle use survey.     

Safety modeling for two‐way left‐turn lanes and a procedure to identify two‐way left‐turn lane segments with safety concerns

In the past, two‐way left‐turn lane (TWLTL) median treatments have been frequently used in Florida to inexpensively improve traffic and safety performances. In order to identify factors that may have significant impacts on safety operations in TWLTL sections and to identify TWLTL locations that present existing and future safety concerns, a research project was carried out and results are summarized in the paper. In the research, a three‐year crash history database with crashes and section characteristics from a total of 1688 TWLTL sections all over Florida was developed and used. A negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the statistical relationship between the number of crashes per mile per year and several variables such as traffic volume, access density, posted speed, and number of lanes. In regard to the methodology, in order to identify locations with safety concerns, several steps are needed: development of real crash data distribution, determination of statistical distribution models that better represent the actual crash data, determination of percentile values for the average number of crashes, estimation of crash rates for sections with the same characteristics, estimation of critical values for the variables corresponding to the percentile values for average number of crashes, calculation of tables of critical average annual daily traffic values, and generation of a list of TWLTL locations with critical safety concerns. Results presented in the paper have been used in real applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

旅客购票模式与渠道关联选择行为的建模分析

为分析多元化售票渠道下旅客购票选择行为的影响因素及交互特征，解析了多渠道情境下旅客购票过程的 3个阶段，辨识了旅客购票的 3类典型模式；运用协同进化分析思想，建立了购票模式与渠道关联选择的协同进化 Logit模型；基于道路客运联网售票信息系统数据，进行了模型的实证应用，分析了特征变量对旅客购票选择行为的影响，揭示了渠道与模式间关联选择行为特征.研究表明：性别，年龄，提前购票时间，出行时间，出行里程，发车频率等因素对旅客购票行为有显著影响；旅客购票模式和渠道选择间存在相关性，某一决策选择受另一决策结果的影响；考虑两者的交互作用有助于提高分析预测精度，2类决策模型的精度分别提高了5.98%和5.72%.     

Expanding scope of hybrid choice models allowing for mixture of social influences and latent attitudes: Application to intended purchase of electric cars

Recently, policy makers’ expectations about the role of electric cars in reducing emissions have risen substantially. In parallel, academic research on purchase intentions has dramatically increased. Originally, most studies have focused on utility attributes and price. More recently, several hybrid choice models have been estimated to include the impact of attitudes on choice probabilities. In addition, a few studies have caught the attention to social influence. In contributing to this line of research, this paper reports the results of an expanded hybrid choice, which simultaneously estimated all these different effects in a single integrated model of purchase intention. Results indicate that the model performs well. Costs considerations contribute most to the utility of electric cars. Social influence is less important, but there is also evidence that people tend to take it into consideration when there are positive public opinions about electric cars and the market share becomes almost half of friends of their social network. The intention to purchase an electric car is also influenced by attitudes about environmental concerns and technology acceptance.     

公路隧道CFD建模火灾研究与实验验证

以一段实体隧道为背景，建立计算流体动力学模型，模拟了60 L汽油火灾产生的温度场及其变化，并通过实验进行了比较。温度的模拟值和试验值无论是同一高度不同地点，还是同一高度不同时刻，在总体变化趋势上基本是一致的，而且模拟值相对试验值而言，对工程实际是偏于安全的。实验证明所建立的CFD模型是可靠的，可用于下一步大规模火灾的研究。