Bayesian estimation of multinomial probit models of work trip choice

In this paper, we estimate a multinomial probit model of work trip mode choice in Seoul, Korea, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. This method constructs a Markov chain Gibbs sampler that can be used to draw directly from the exact posterior distribution and perform finite sample likelihood inference. We estimate direct and cross-elasticities with respect to travel cost and the value of time. Our results show that travel demands are more sensitive to travel time than travel cost. The cross-elasticity results show that the bus has a greater substitute relation to the subway than the auto (and vice versa) and that an increase in the cost of an auto will increase the demand for bus transport more so than that of the subway.     

铁路客票系统的席位管理研究

在讨论使用计算机售票席位管理所面临的问题的基础上,分析了解决问题的方案,并介绍了由铁道部客票总体组开发的向全路推广的客票预订与发售软件系统中对客票席位管理的具体实现方案。     

编制国省道改建项目可研报告的几点心得体会

通过对近年来山东省国省道改建可研报告编制工作中常见问题及设计对策的总结,用工作实例提出了解决问题的思路和方法。     

Non‐compatible chemicals as cargoes in industry,on road,rail, and water

Toronto is to have an urban transit system with a passenger carrying capacity which fills the gap between the capacity of the subway and the capacity of the car and bus. Correspondingly, in the words of the Premier of Ontario, the system will “make possible an attractive alternative to high‐rise, high‐density living and urban sprawl. . . .” Furthermore, the new system is sufficiently economical to provide “. . . an encouragement to growth in appropriate areas, rather than merely responding to growth as it occurs . . .”

The decision to have such a system is the culmination of some years of major transportation activities in the Province, which included the Metropolitan Toronto and Region Transportation Study (MTARTS) of 1962. This study pursued both urban expressways and public transport solutions to the movement of people in Metropolitan Toronto.

The urban expressways programmes ran into difficulties, on environmental terms, when strong opposition from community groups was met on proposed routes. A climax came when the Ontario Government halted the construction of the controversial Spadina expressway in June 1971. However, the programmes of public transport solutions met with great success. The Toronto subway and its extensions, together with the change in land values along the route, has become a classic success story. So, too, has the introduction of the GO Train Service (Government of Ontario train service). This pioneered a combination of commuter rail service and integrated feeder buses and today replaces some 14,000 cars each day along the lakeshore highways.

The success of the subway and the GO train coupled with the difficulties experienced by the urban expressways programme, gave rise to the realisation that a better city through public transport rather than the car, was practicable. However, subways were too expensive and they needed a large patronage in a narrow corridor. Accordingly, an intermediate capacity transit system was sought.

The paper describes the programme of activities involved in the choice of the system and describes the technical specification which the system will enjoy. In particular, the demonstration installation which is to be set‐up in Toronto is described in detail, together with the plans to instal some 56 miles over five routes in Metropolitan Toronto.     

Bottleneck congestion and distribution of work start times: The economics of staggered work hours revisited

Since the seminal work of Henderson (Henderson, J.V., 1981. The economics of staggered work hours. Journal of Urban Economics 9 (3), 349–364), a number of studies have examined the effect of staggered work hours by analyzing models of work start time choice that consider the trade-off between negative congestion externalities and positive production externalities. However, these studies employed flow congestion models to describe traffic congestion. This study develops a model of work start time choice with bottleneck congestion and discloses the intrinsic properties of the model. To this end, this study extends Henderson’s model to incorporate bottleneck congestion. By utilizing the properties of a potential game, we characterize equilibrium and optimal distributions of work start times. We also show that Pigouvian tax/subsidy policies generally yield multiple equilibria and that the first-best optimum must be a stable equilibrium under Pigouvian policies, whereas the second-best optimum in which policymakers cannot eliminate queuing congestion can be unstable.     

基于Matlab的公路养护作业区长度优化方法研究

公路养护工作是维持道路正常运行的基本保证,设置养护作业区往往需要封闭部分车道,这常会给道路上的交通流带来不利影响,对养护作业长度进行优化设计可以减少这些负面影响。在考虑道路交通流量的时间变化特性基础上建立了养护作业费用模型,利用Matlab工具初步实现了在道路交通流随时间变化情况下的作业区长度优化计算,并给出了具体算例。     

钢结构厚板母材及其焊接影响区的Z向冲击性能试验

为研究厚板及其焊缝在z向下的冲击性能,积累Z向冲击功的数据,为今后衡量评价z向性能提供实验依据,采用Q345B结构钢材,针对厚度60一165mm的板,在不同尺寸焊缝的十字形连接下沿轧制方向和板厚方向（z向）取样,在常温和低温下进行夏比y形缺1：2冲击试验。分析冲击功的变化规律,并用Bohzman函数进行拟合并分析韧脆转变温度。对试样断1：2进行电镜扫描分析。研究结果表明：z向取样,温度降低皆会对冲击韧性产生较大的影响,板厚及焊缝尺寸的增加也会对冲击韧性产生不利的影响,但相对较低。     

浅谈《目标地图》对企业管理的助益

目标地图管理系统是一种将工作目标进行可行性分解并制订计划、定期跟踪管理、反馈结果、解决问题并最终达成目标的过程管理工具。文章通过对比使用目标地图前后的管理优势,介绍目标地图具体的使用办法,应用目标地图管理系统,来解决各类管理弊端,有效避免管理拖沓等问题。     

多孔玄武岩沥青混合料配合比设计方案

沥青混合料配合比设计中关于最大理论相对密度的计算,新规范中引进矿料的有效相对密度,考虑材料的吸水率。关于高吸水性多孔玄武岩配合比设计中体积指标的测算,更易出现不满足规范要求的问题。采用多孔玄武岩石料,通过标准马歇尔击实试验及试件体积参数的计算,探讨多孔玄武岩混合料配合比设计中体积参数获取时击实功的选择,确保数据的准确性并满足规范要求。     

智能公交一体化系统研究

综合考虑智能公交系统和公交一体化系统,将二者作为分系统,提出智能公交一体化系统的构想,并利用系统工程理论进行初步研究。一方面,智能公交系统作为ITS的一个重要子系统,为解决城市交通问题提供了一条全新且有效的途径;另一方面,公交一体化系统作为城市公交系统的一个必然发展趋势,可以更有效地满足城市居民多元化、多层次的出行需求。从区域调度和票制一体化两个分系统的热点问题入手,论证了在我国城市建立完善的智能公交一体化系统的可操作性,给出了解决该问题的思路,也为智能公交一体化系统在实践中应用提供了一种有效途径。