Limits to resources, economic growth and happiness

Terrible scenario for the future aspect of our society was issued by “The Limits to Growth”. Basic problems that we confront are the restricted natural resources and the environment. Regarding the resources, the overall average of the reserve/production ratio is predicted to fall below 10 years by 2040. Aggressive developments of mines based on the sense of urgency for metal resources cause strong confliction with the environment and the people living there. Resultantly, urban mine becomes more realistic than before. From the view point of ecological foot print, 5.3 globes are needed if all the people living in the world attain the affluent life same as USA. On the other hand, it is clear that we can get larger utility by smaller goods if our scale of satisfaction is reduced. We have to notice that happiness is our ultimate purpose, economy and industry are intermediate, and natural resources support the all from the basis.     

人力资本对经济增长影响的动态分析

随着高新技术经济和知识经济的发展,人力资本对经济发展的作用越来越重要。以内生经济增长理论为基础,通过建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,对江西人力资本对经济增长的影响进行了动态分析。分析结果表明:江西人力资本对经济增长的影响具有一定滞后性和阶段性,并且人力资本的贡献与其投入是不对称的。     

农村基础设施投资对农村经济增长作用的实证分析

农村基础设施投资是促进我国农村经济增长的重要推动力量,因此在农村经济建设方面,农村基础设施的建设有着举足轻重的地位。长期以来,我国农村基础设施建设相对来说比较落后,完善我国农村基础设施建设成为当前改善农村经济方面的一项重要举措。本文从农村基础设施建设对我国农村经济的影响入手,通过对农村基础设施建设各要素投入与经济产出的回归分析,得出农村基础设施投资对农村经济的增长具有很大影响,并提出相应对策与建议。     

吻合血管腓骨移植在股骨头颈部的生长变化

作者对1981～1989年112例股骨头无菌性坏死及陈旧性股骨颈骨折施行了股骨头颈部自体吻合血管的游离腓骨移植术。对其中44例进行了3个月～8年随访发现:带血管的腓骨移植到股骨头颈部后,在生长过程中逐渐改建塑形,将自身的形态结构转变成为类似股骨头颈部骨骼的形态与结构,以适应新的环境及功能。此过程约需3年～4年。     

基于层次分析法的中国邮轮母港综合评价

在国际邮轮市场东移的背景下,我国沿海城市纷纷打造邮轮母港抢占邮轮经济的“蛋糕”,只依靠港口建设和政策扶持是很难达到邮轮母港的要求。我国目前的所谓邮轮母港已经远远超过邮轮公司的航线需求,地区间竞争大于合作。基于增长极理论下应当优先发展重点潜力地区,通过层次分析法的运用,量化比较各城市的邮轮母港竞争力,最后形成我国邮轮母港建设框架,避免同质化竞争。     

Do changes in neighborhood characteristics lead to changes in travel behavior? A structural equations modeling approach

Suburban sprawl has been widely criticized for its contribution to auto dependence. Numerous studies have found that residents in suburban neighborhoods drive more and walk less than their counterparts in traditional environments. However, most studies confirm only an association between the built environment and travel behavior, and have yet to establish the predominant underlying causal link: whether neighborhood design independently influences travel behavior or whether preferences for travel options affect residential choice. That is, residential self-selection may be at work. A few studies have recently addressed the influence of self-selection. However, our understanding of the causality issue is still immature. To address this issue, this study took into account individuals’ self-selection by employing a quasi-longitudinal design and by controlling for residential preferences and travel attitudes. In particular, using data collected from 547 movers currently living in four traditional neighborhoods and four suburban neighborhoods in Northern California, we developed a structural equations model to investigate the relationships among changes in the built environment, changes in auto ownership, and changes in travel behavior. The results provide some encouragement that land-use policies designed to put residents closer to destinations and provide them with alternative transportation options will actually lead to less driving and more walking.

西部地区增长极培育与公路重点线路

以增长极理论为基础,以西部大开发为背景,提出欠发达地区通过培育增长极来带动区域经济发展的非均衡发展模式,进而分析了公路交通在促进西部大开发中的重要作用。针对西部地区的实际情况,本文提出在西部地区培育国家级、省级和县级经济增长极,探讨了相应的选择条件,并据此确定了在不同范围内具有带动作用的增长极。结合西部地形、交通区位等因素,规划布局了配套的公路重点线路,并对其布局效果进行评价,进一步说明公路交通对经济发展的巨大促进作用。     

加载波形对LZ50车轴钢疲劳裂纹扩展行为的影响

在三角波、正弦波、方波3种加载波形下对LZ50车轴钢紧凑拉伸试样开展疲劳裂纹扩展试验,采用扫描电镜观察断口形貌,并结合试验数据分析加载波形对裂纹尺寸增量和扩展速率的影响。结果显示:加载频率较高时,疲劳裂纹扩展行为对波形的敏感性较低,断口形貌基本相同;加载频率较低时,波形对疲劳裂纹扩展行为的影响增大,断口形貌出现差异;稳态扩展区以疲劳条带为主要扩展机制,三角波加载下的疲劳条带间距明显小于其他2种波形,其失稳扩展区形貌以韧窝为主,且韧窝较其他2种波形下的小且浅。同时,基于LS-DYNA软件和节点位移外推法对CT试样在3种加载波形下的应力强度因子进行计算和分析。结果表明:仿真分析波形对疲劳裂纹扩展的影响机制与试验结果基本一致。     

我国铁路建设与经济增长的关系

对中国1953—2007年的铁路建设和经济增长的样本数据进行实证分析,通过单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验主要步骤对数据进行分析。研究结果表明:铁路建设对我国经济增长具有正向的推动作用,并间接提升了工业化水平,但是,经济增长不是铁路建设的直接原因,是因为近年我国经济建设增长大力推动了公路航空等基础设施的发展而对于铁路建设的推动力度不够;铁路作为我国重要的基础设施一部分,铁路的发展速度关系到我国经济建设能否在我国基础设施平台上充分稳定的向前发展,因为滞后的基础设施建设对国民经济建设不利,需要加大基础设施建设投资力度特别是铁路建设以适应经济增长的需要。     

欧洲机车车辆厂商的演变

介绍了近 10年来世界上主要机车车辆厂商的重组演变过程 ,着重介绍了阿尔斯通、西门子、AD tranz和庞巴迪公司经过合并重组发展成国际跨国集团的经过 ,预示着机车车辆领域的发展趋势是研发资源的集中化、生产基地的集约化和降低产品价格