Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes?

Air traffic has an increasing influence on climate; therefore identifying mitigation options to reduce the climate impact of aviation becomes more and more important. Aviation influences climate through several climate agents, which show different dependencies on the magnitude and location of emission and the spatial and temporal impacts. Even counteracting effects can occur. Therefore, it is important to analyse all effects with high accuracy to identify mitigation potentials. However, the uncertainties in calculating the climate impact of aviation are partly large (up to a factor of about 2). In this study, we present a methodology, based on a Monte Carlo simulation of an updated non-linear climate-chemistry response model AirClim, to integrate above mentioned uncertainties in the climate assessment of mitigation options. Since mitigation options often represent small changes in emissions, we concentrate on a more generalised approach and use exemplarily different normalised global air traffic inventories to test the methodology. These inventories are identical in total emissions but differ in the spatial emission distribution. We show that using the Monte Carlo simulation and analysing relative differences between scenarios lead to a reliable assessment of mitigation potentials. In a use case we show that the presented methodology can be used to analyse even small differences between scenarios with mean flight altitude variations.     

基于ANSYS的公路隧道衬砌结构安全分析

文章基于大型通用软件ANSYS,以深埋条件下隧道为例,采用荷载结构法,对考虑仰拱作用的各级围岩两车道公路隧道衬砌结构进行计算,求解其强度安全系数并进行相关安全分析,所得结论可为工程人员参考。     

(Unintended) Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka

Motor vehicles are one of the major sources of air pollution in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The government took various policies to convert the petroleum vehicles on road to run on compressed natural gas (CNG), which allows both air quality improvements and energy security benefits. One of the market friendly policies to encourage the fuel switch was to increase the price differential between CNG and petrol and diesel. This has allowed a wide-scale adoption of CNG as the fuel of choice. However, several years into the policy, there is now a widespread belief among the policymakers that the CNG conversion may have increased car ownership and car travel due to their lower running costs, resulting in more congestion and a reversal of the strategy is on the cards. It is therefore important to test the hypothesis whether CNG conversion had genuinely increased car ownership and car travel in Dhaka city. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey and an econometric intervention analysis to understand the impact of CNG conversion on car ownership and car travel in Dhaka. Attention is also given to disentangle the self-selection and price-induced travel effects of CNG conversion. Results show that ownership did not increase, but travel of on-road vehicles increased due to the CNG policy. However, additional congestion costs are still around one half of the health benefits brought about by the policy.     

小净距空间交叉隧道台阶法施工安全性研究

为分析小净距交叉隧道台阶法施工过程中新建隧道和既有隧道的衬砌安全性,基于断裂力学的Griffith准则,提出了判定衬砌开裂的开裂安全系数CF,并假定CF>1时衬砌开裂,CF<1时衬砌安全;依托实际工程,结合开裂安全系数和规范中的衬砌截面安全系数,采用有限元软件ANSYS分析交叉隧道的衬砌安全性。分析发现： 施工过程中,交叉断面新建隧道衬砌环向安全系数小于纵向安全系数,但基本满足规范要求;既有隧道二次衬砌开裂安全系数CF远小于1,其开裂安全系数CF云图关于新建隧道轴线对称。分析结果对新建隧道的施工和既有隧道衬砌的防护具有重要意义。     

地铁盾构机掘进对周围环境影响的现场测试研究

研究目的:盾构机在城市地铁建设中得到了广泛的应用,但在盾构掘进过程中会引起地层损失,过大的地层损失,可导致较大的地面沉降,对地面建筑物、地下管线等设施产生不利影响甚至会导致破坏,引起较大的经济损失。为此,本文以南京地铁一号线为依托,对盾构掘进过程中引起的建筑物、地下管线位移以及引起的地下水位进行了现场测试,经过分析、总结,得到了盾构掘进对周围环境影响的规律性结论。在此基础上,从地层沉降与土仓压力、同步注浆量和出喳量的关系,探讨了地层沉降的控制措施。研究方法:对盾构掘进过程中所影响得到地下管线位移、建筑沉降、地下水位变化等进行现场实测,获取了有关现场测试数据,并对这些数据进行分析,得到可以供施工参考的有价值的结论。研究结论:调整、修正、合理匹配盾构掘进参数,建立有效土压平衡,确保同步注浆效果,是控制地层损失,减小地层变位的有效手段,是减少盾构掘进对周围环境影响的重要措施。     

客运专线环境影响特性探讨

客运专线主体结构以桥梁为主,具有不同于普通铁路的工程建设特性,从而导致不同的环境影响特性。如生态环境影响特点为客运专线桥梁工程桩基施工弃土量、泥浆处置量大,制梁场等临时工程占地多;声环境影响具有声源位置高、声源成分复杂的特点,随着列车运行速度增加,空气动力噪声和集电系统噪声显著增加;电磁环境影响特点,高架线路对电磁的遮挡、反射影响不容忽视,电磁辐射影响与车速呈正比。     

常规物理力学性质指标在湿陷机理上的体现

研究目的:湿陷性为黄土的主要工程地质问题,其产生机理极其复杂,产生原因多种多样,需进一步深入研究。研究方法:基于现有文献对黄土的湿陷原因与机理的认识,以甘肃黄土地区高等级公路黄土分区项目为例,利用多元统计分析方法中的因子分析对甘肃陇西陇东地区黄土的59组样本的9个常规试验的物理力学指标数据进行了分析,在此基础上,对黄土湿陷机理内因进行了分析。研究结论:黄土的湿陷性指标与其它物理力学指标存在相关性,同时,揭示出产生湿陷的黄土必须有湿陷空间及一定量遇水强度降低的联接,黄土的疏松性、多孔性正是其反映,特别是支架孔隙是导致黄土湿陷的最主要原因,而非饱和黄土是产生湿陷的前提,粘粒含量及粘土的水-胶联结在产生湿陷过程中的作用需要进一步商榷。此外,本方法解决了常规单因子分析因指标交叉而分析失真的缺陷。     

国外客车被动安全研究

近年来,国外大客车被动安全研究进展迅速,并取得了良好的效果。在欧美等国家,虽然公路客运量比重最大,但与其它交通工具相比,大客车交通事故死亡人数却是最少的,这与这些国家客车的被动安全研究有密切的关系。本文从国外客车事故统计与分析、被动安全研究方法以及目前正在研究的新项目等三方面对国外大型客车被动安全研究的状况进行介绍,以对我国刚刚起步的大客车被动安全的研究工作起到推动作用。     

AMT换挡冲击产生机理与对策研究

文中研究了自动机械变速器(AMT)在换挡时同步器未起作用而产生冲击的问题,分析了产生换挡冲击的机理并确定了换挡执行机构的最优运动速度.据此,提出了消除冲击的换挡控制方法,并在某载货车的变速器上进行实验验证.结果表明该方法能够有效避免车辆在换挡过程中产生冲击的现象.     

国家公路运输枢纽规划环境影响评价的工作重点与存在问题分析

对公路运输枢纽规划环境影响评价工作的主要内容、评价重点和存在的问题进行了梳理和分析,认为重大环境敏感点的识别、相关规划的协调性分析、声环境和大气环境的影响分析是公路运输枢纽规划环境影响评价工作的重点,并指出当前评价工作存在的问题,包括基础资料获取困难、评价方法存在不足、枢纽规划内容不够具体、规划协调性分析深度不够、公众参与工作开展困难、规划与规划环境影响评价工作脱节等,并针对上述问题提出了相应的建议和对策,为公路运输枢纽类型的规划环境影响评价开展提供参考和借鉴.