Deriving macroscopic fundamental diagrams from probe data: Issues and proposed solutions

Well-defined relationships between flow and density averaged spatially across urban traffic networks, more commonly known as Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (MFDs), have been recently verified to exist in reality. Researchers have proposed using MFDs to monitor the status of urban traffic networks and to inform the design of network-wide traffic control strategies. However, it is also well known that empirical MFDs are not easy to estimate in practice due to difficulties in obtaining the requisite data needed to construct them. Recent works have devised ways to estimate a network’s MFD using limited trajectory data that can be obtained from GPS-equipped mobile probe vehicles. These methods assume that the market penetration level of mobile probe vehicles is uniform across the entire set of OD pairs in the network; however, in reality the probe vehicle market penetration rate varies regionally within a network. When this variation is combined with the imbalance of probe trip lengths and travel times, the compound effects will further complicate the estimation of the MFD.To overcome this deficit, we propose a method to estimate a network’s MFD using mobile probe data when the market penetration rates are not necessarily the same across an entire network. This method relies on the determination of appropriate average probe penetration rates, which are weighted harmonic means using individual probe vehicle travel times and distances as the weights. The accuracy of this method is tested using synthetic data generated in the INTEGRATION micro-simulation environment by comparing the estimated MFDs to the ground truth MFD obtained using a 100% market penetration of probe vehicles. The results show that the weighted harmonic mean probe penetration rates outperform simple (arithmetic) average probe penetration rates, as expected. This especially holds true as the imbalance of demand and penetration level increases. Furthermore, as the probe penetration rates are generally not known, an algorithm to estimate the probe penetration rates of regional OD pairs is proposed. This algorithm links count data from sporadic fixed detectors in the network to information from probe vehicles that pass the detectors. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm is very effective. Since the data needed to apply this algorithm are readily available and easy to collect, the proposed algorithm is practically feasible and offers a better approach for the estimation of the MFD using mobile probe data, which are becoming increasingly available in urban environments.     

应变增大系数在车辆荷载对桥梁结构冲击效应评价中的应用

通过试验分析了截面应变增大系数与冲击系数、振动加速度的相关性,结果证明了用应变增大系数表征车辆荷载对公路桥梁的冲击效应的可行性。     

Approximate weight functions of stress intensity factor for a wide range shapes of surface and an embedded elliptical crack

This paper describes the application of weight function for stress intensity factor in a surface crack with a wide range of crack shapes. Based on the weight function representation proposed by Wang and Glinka (2009), an extended formulation of the weight function for surfaces and embedded cracks is performed. The unknown parameters in the formulations were determined from reference values of stress intensity factor for a surface and an embedded crack given by finite element analysis with the J integral method. The effectiveness of the proposed weight functions has been verified by comparing with the stress intensity factors given by finite element analysis and available approximated solutions under several loading conditions.     

EDITORIAL: FINANCIAL CREATIVITY

This paper sets out the developments in world shipbuilding policy that have occurred in the past decade. It reviews and outlines the situation that existed in the late 1990s, when an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agreement on the elimination of shipyard operating subsidies was tantalisingly close. After the Introduction, the second section provides a brief review of the development of the industry over the past three decades, setting the context for developments since 1997. The third section discusses the complaint of the European Union (EU) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) concerning the Republic of Korea's support for its shipbuilding sector, and its counterclaim over the EU's temporary defence mechanism (TDM). It is argued that the core of the EU's case at the WTO was flawed, and that the reintroduction of an operating subsidy via the TDM was a mistake. The only prospect for regularizing competition in this area lies in the negotiation of the OECD agreement that was completed, but not ratified, in 1994. Given the souring of relations between two of the main players in this area, the prospects for such a settlement seem remote. The fourth section uses Olson's theory of groups to argue that the European Commission's actions were driven primarily by industry pressure groups, and failed to consider the potential views of other European stakeholders, in particular the taxpayers. Given the failure of the EU's action at the WTO, the future direction of European shipbuilding policy will have to focus on strategies for internal development and improved industrial competitiveness.     

基于占道施工的交通影响分析阈值确定方法研究

针对日益严重的占道施工问题,从建立占道施工交通影响分析阈值的思路出发,确定阈值的指标形式及其计算方法,并在充分考虑各施工路段的交通状况差异性的基础上,给出各施工路段阈值的计算方法及其判定流程,最后进行案例分析。研究成果对于占道施工交通影响分析阈值的建立有指导意义。     

顺倾结构面红层岩质边坡稳定性分析及治理

含顺倾结构面的红层岩质边坡开挖过程中极易发生边坡失稳问题。本文以东南地区一公路红层岩质边坡为研究对象,分析该类边坡的致灾因子,并针对该边坡沿顺倾结构面的滑动破坏模式,提出坡脚堆载反压、刷方减载、夯填裂缝、设置排水工程和锚固工程的综合治理措施。通过建立滑坡模型,采用室内试验法、反算法和极限平衡法确定滑面计算参数和滑坡推力,并对治理措施实施过程中边坡稳定性进行分析验算,论证治理措施的可行性。监测数据表明,治理效果较为理想。     

Impacts of the 2004 Tsunami on Surin Marine National Park,Thailand

The impacts of the tsunami in 2004 on the reefs in Surin Marine National Park, Thailand, varied with the location and exposure of the reefs. Channel areas between islands were severely damaged. Areas with steep reef slopes were damaged by sand slides or coral collapse more than areas with low slopes. Massive, sub-massive, and encrusting corals were more resistant and resilient to the direct impact of the tsunami than branching, tabulate, and foliose life forms whereas the latter were more tolerant of temporary coverage by sand. Sub-massive corals were the most tolerant overall and survived sand coverage, breakage, and overturning. Live coral cover measured three months after the tsunami was significantly greater than immediately post-tsunami as broken, moved, or sand-covered corals, recorded as impacted in the initial survey, had survived and were regenerating. Low turbidity, lack of pollution, and mild currents possibly contributed to rapid recovery and limited long-term effects of the tsunami. Impact assessment shortly after a major disturbance may give an initial measure of damage but subsequent surveys must be undertaken to identify long-term effects. Understanding patterns of reef damage can help to formulate reef zoning and protection strategies in response to catastrophic events, but also in advance of such events to improve likely resilience of the marine park to disturbance.     

Measuring the environmental efficiency of the global aviation fleet

This research analyses the environmental footprint of the airline industry in an attempt to highlight potential paths for improvement. We develop a directional economic-environmental distance function (DEED) which accounts for the production of both desirable and undesirable output and the potential for constrained increases in input utilization. This research applies the modeling framework to analyze the potential to reduce noise and airborne pollutants emitted by aircraft–engine combinations given the current state of aeronautical technology. The global aircraft–engine market is viewed from the regulatory perspective in order to compare the single environmental and operational efficient frontier to that of the airline carriers, and environmental objectives. The results of DEED are then applied in order to substitute the fleets serving Schipol, Amsterdam and Arlanda, Stockholm airports in June 2010 with the benchmark aircraft. The results highlight the inefficiencies of the current airline fleets and that the IPCC values of externalities are a magnitude of TEN too low to encourage changes in the global fleet hence the need for government intervention.     

驾驶舱眩光仿真分析与实车评价

良好的汽车驾驶舱视觉舒适性能够保障驾乘人员的行车安全，提高道路交通的稳定性，因此汽车驾驶舱的人机工程布置和内饰设计需要考虑减少驾驶舱眩光的产生。针对该问题，提出了一种基于CATIA/SPEOS的汽车驾驶室眩光评估方法。利用光线追踪法分析产生光反射部件之间的几何位置关系，在考虑材质属性、外界环境、真实光学效果和阳光照射方向的前提下，利用视觉仿真精确映射汽车驾驶舱的眩光位置。以某型SUV驾驶舱为例，通过光线跟踪分析发现，组合仪表不会有光线的直接照射产生眩光，中控大屏幕会有通过天窗和右边侧窗玻璃的光线直接照射产生眩光；通过视觉仿真分析发现，组合仪表由于光线折反射导致轻微眩光，中控大屏幕眩光面积较大；前挡风玻璃区域在中午和下午眩光较为严重，左边外后视镜区域在下午有空调镀铬装饰和风口造型的成像；中控大屏幕贴合AR防眩光膜优化后，分析结果表明，整块屏幕视觉效果趋于一致，视觉功效有显著提高。通过制定驾驶舱炫目主观评价流程并进行主观评价分析，得出驾驶舱眩光主观评价分析结果与仿真方法评估结果一致，表明该评估方法在新车研发和车型改款试制前期对驾驶室眩光分析和优化具有可行性。     

Crash risk factors associated with injury severity of teen drivers

This paper focuses on identifying crash risk factors associated with injury severity of teen drivers. Crash data obtained from the Highway Safety and Information System (HSIS) for the entire state of North Carolina, for years 2011 to 2013, was used for analysis and modeling. Among all the crashes during the study period, a total of 62,990 crashes involving teen drivers (15 to 19?years) were analyzed. A partial proportionality odds model was developed to identify factors contributing to injury severity of teen drivers. The results obtained indicate that teen drivers driving sports utility vehicles and pickup trucks are more likely to be severely injured when compared to teen drivers driving passenger cars. Teen drivers are more likely to be severely injured on weekdays, particularly during peak hours. The chances of teen drivers getting involved in severe injury crashes on Tuesdays and Fridays is higher when compared to Sundays. Age, gender, road configuration, terrain, adverse weather condition, and access control are observed to have a significant effect on teen driver's injury severity.