中国货运结构优化的碳减排效应测度

管理部门和学界高度重视货运结构优化问题，因为过高的公路货运量导致货运碳排放居高不下，不利于早日实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标。除货运结构外，货运碳排放受诸多因素影响，但研究者大多仅关注部分重点因素影响，对于货运结构优化的碳减排效应缺乏准确理解。为解决上述问题，本文利用“自上而下”法测算1999—2019年中国货运碳排放量，并构建综合考虑社会经济变量(如人均GDP)与货运特征变量(如货运分担率)的偏最小二乘回归模型，通过调整不同货运方式使用费用，模拟2030年不同政策刺激情景下货运结构优化的碳减排效应。结果表明：1999— 2019年，社会经济变量对货运碳排放增长的年均贡献度为73%，显著高于货运特征变量；公路、铁路和水路货运分担率变化对货运碳排放增长的年均贡献度分别为1.81%、-0.01%和-0.26%；2030 年公路货运量全部转为铁路或水路货运量的极端情景，难以实现单位GDP货运碳排放较2005年下降65%的标准；增加高碳货运方式使用费用的碳减排效应比降低低碳货运方式使用费用更显著。     

ISO与ITTC方法在实船航速修正应用对比

介绍了ISO15016：2015和ITTC2017两种实船航速修正方法，对比了两种修正方法的测速要求和修正流程。并通过8种具有代表性的船舶试航数据，采用两种方法对试航数据进行修正，分析了不同环境因素的修正结果，可为今后船舶EEDI测速试验和航速修正提供参考。     

Robust constrained control of uncertain macroscopic fundamental diagram networks

This paper considers modeling and control of uncertain Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) systems for multiple-region networks. First, the nonlinear vehicle conservation equations based on MFD dynamics, presented in earlier publications, are transformed to linear equations with parameter uncertainties. The parameter uncertainties include the destination decomposition fractions, that are difficult to estimate in reality. Then, the uncertain linear model is utilized to design a robust feedback controller by an interpolation-based approach. This approach (i) guarantees robustness against all parameter uncertainties, (ii) handle control and state constraints, and (iii) present a computationally cheap solution. The main idea is to interpolate between (i) a stabilizing outer controller that respects the control and state constraints and (ii) an inner robustly stable controller designed by any method. The robust control is further challenged to deal with different relative locations of reference accumulation points on the MFD diagrams. Numerical results for a two-region system show that the uncertain linear model can replace the nonlinear model for modeling and control. Moreover, the robust control law is presented as implicit and explicit solutions, where in the implicit case one linear programming (LP) problem is solved at each time instant, while in the explicit case, the control law is shown as a piecewise affine function of state. Finally, a comparison between the interpolating controller and other controllers in the literature is carried out. The results demonstrate the performance advantages from applying the robust interpolating controller.     

The effect of weld residual stress on fracture toughness at the intersection of two welding lines of offshore tubular structure

Due to the spatial complexity and fabrication characteristics of offshore platforms, it is inevitable to encounter overlaps or proximity of weld lines in tubular joints. Several international standards such as American Petroleum Institute (API), American Welding Society (AWS), and American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC) regulate the minimum distance between primary weld beads; however, any logical and detailed background of this limitation has not been presented. For a non-compliant weld joint where the regulation is not met, fracture toughness calculation is a typical index to verify the structural integrity.This research consists of two parts. First, weld residual stress distributions are calculated by a 3D thermo-mechanical nonlinear Finite Element Analysis. Two crossing welds, a T-weld crossing on a butt weld, are simulated in one model. A separate tee and a butt welding simulations are also performed for a comparative purpose. Second, SIFs and J-integral values are calculated at the surface and deepest crack tip locations for four different types of semi-elliptical surface cracks. Four cracks are embedded into the weld model and the residual stress distribution from the 3D thermo-mechanical FEA are mapped to a 3D FE crack model as initial conditions. An additional axial tensile load is also imposed. SIF values are compared with those using the weighting function method for the butt weld model subject to three load cases, i.e., tensile stress only, weld residual stress only, and both of them. From the simulation, a tubular joint containing a chord girth weld intersected with weld beads of brace is found to show lower the SIF values than that having only a girth weld on chord.     

The effect of railway local irregularities on ground vibration

The environmental effects of ground-borne vibrations generated due to localised railway defects is a growing concern in urban areas. Frequency domain modelling approaches are well suited for predicting vibration levels on standard railway lines due to track periodicity. However, when considering individual, non-periodic, localised defects (e.g. a rail joint), frequency domain modelling becomes challenging. Therefore in this study, a previously validated, time domain, three-dimensional ground vibration prediction model is modified to analyse such defects. A range of different local (discontinuous) rail and wheel irregularity are mathematically modelled, including: rail joints, switches, crossings and wheel flats. Each is investigated using a sensitivity analysis, where defect size and vehicle speed is varied. To quantify the effect on railroad ground-borne vibration levels, a variety of exposure–response relationships are analysed, including: peak particle velocity, maximum weighted time-averaged velocity and weighted decibel velocity. It is shown that local irregularities cause a significant increase in vibration in comparison to a smooth track, and that the vibrations can propagate to greater distances from the line. Furthermore, the results show that step-down joints generate the highest levels of vibration, whereas wheel flats generate much lower levels. It is also found that defect size influences vibration levels, and larger defects cause greater vibration. Lastly, it is shown that for different defect types, train speed effects are complex, and may cause either an increase or decrease in vibration levels.     

Measuring the car ownership impact of free-floating car-sharing – A case study in Basel,Switzerland

Free-floating car-sharing schemes operate without fixed car-sharing stations, ahead reservations or return-trip requirements. Providing fast and convenient motorization, they attract both public transport users and (former) car-owners. Thus, their impact on individual travel behavior depends on the user type. Estimating the travel behavior impact of these systems therefore requires quantitative data. Using a two-wave survey approach (shortly after launch of the scheme plus one year later) including travel diaries, this research indicates that (due to their membership) 6% of the free-floating car-sharing customers reduce their private vehicle ownership. Moreover, the results suggest that free-floating car-sharing both complements and competes with station-based car-sharing.     

斜穿地裂缝黄土地铁隧道施工诱发的地表沉降及隧道变形规律研究

研究地裂缝影响区内存在可弱化土体的不利因素情况下,西安黄土地区地铁隧道暗挖斜穿地裂缝施工所诱发的地表及隧道相关变形规律。通过FLAC3D模拟预测施工变形规律,并与实际监测数据进行对比分析,得到以下结论:(1)FLAC3D模拟表明,隧道暗挖施工穿越地裂缝时裂缝临近处收敛值会在初期出现短暂负收敛现象;(2)地表在地裂缝影响带的差异沉降发展集中在穿越前和穿越过程中,而拱顶上下盘差异沉降主要集中在穿越过程中;(3)当地裂缝影响带内存在可弱化土体强度的不利因素时,地表最终沉降的峰值点会向不利因素处移动;(4)拱顶最终沉降的峰值点基本在隧道轴线和裂缝的相交处,其受地表的土体弱化因素影响较小。     

A discounted recursive logit model for dynamic gridlock network analysis

Emerging sensing technologies such as probe vehicles equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) devices on board provide us real-time vehicle trajectories. They are helpful for the understanding of the cases that are significant but difficult to observe because of the infrequency, such as gridlock networks. On the premise of this type of emerging technology, this paper propose a sequential route choice model that describes route choice behavior, both in ordinary networks, where drivers acquire spatial knowledge of networks through their experiences, and in extraordinary networks, which are situations that drivers rarely experience, and applicable to real-time traffic simulations. In extraordinary networks, drivers do not have any experience or appropriate information. In such a context, drivers have little spatial knowledge of networks and choose routes based on dynamic decision making, which is sequential and somewhat forward-looking. In order to model these decision-making dynamics, we propose a discounted recursive logit model, which is a sequential route choice model with the discount factor of expected future utility. Through illustrative examples, we show that the discount factor reflects drivers’ decision-making dynamics, and myopic decisions can confound the network congestion level. We also estimate the parameters of the proposed model using a probe taxis’ trajectory data collected on March 4, 2011 and on March 11, 2011, when the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. The results show that the discount factor has a lower value in gridlock networks than in ordinary networks.     

A bi-objective bi-level signal control policy for transport of hazardous materials in urban road networks

A bi-objective bi-level signal control optimization for hazardous material (hazmat) transport is considered to assess trade-offs between travel cost and environment impacts such as public risk exposure. A least maxi-sum risk model with explicit signal delay is presented to determine generalized travel cost for hazmat carriers. Since the bi-level signal control problem is generally a non-convex program, a bundle method using generalized gradients is proposed. A bounding strategy is developed to stabilize solutions of the bi-level program and reduce relative gaps between iterations. Numerical comparisons are made with other risk-averse models. The results indicate that the proposed bi-objective bi-level model becomes even amiable to signal control policy makers since provides flexible solutions whilst is acceptable to carriers since takes account of travel delay at signal-controlled junctions. Moreover, the trade-offs between public risk and generalized travel costs are empirically investigated among different risk models with a variety of weights. As a result, the proposed model consistently exhibits highly considerable advantage on mitigation of public risk whilst incurred less cost loss as compared to other alternatives.