The cost of not holding back the sea: Toward a national sample of economic vulnerability

Abstract

National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast.     

地下工程建设对城市地下水环境的影响分析

研究目的：研究地下工程在施工和运营的过程中对地下水环境的影响，为地下工程的建设规划及地下水环境保护提供科学依据。研究结果：在总结地下工程建设对地下水环境影响基础上，以西安市城市轨道交通2号线为例，利用经验公式计算施工期车站基坑降水对地下水的影响，并采用数值模拟的方法预测地铁运营后对地下水流场的影响。地铁施工期的基坑降水只发生在张家堡站，中心水位下降6．3m，降水量为10454．15m^3／d，影响半径441m，对地下水流将产生一定的影响；地铁建成运营以后的地铁线路阻挡了地下水的径流，造成“迎水面”水位壅高，“背水面”水位降低，通过模拟水位变幅在0～1．7m。     

高原冻土区隧道施工地下水防治探讨

通过对高原冻土区隧道特殊的工程、水文地质及环境条件分析认为，隧道施工对温度场、应力场和地下水流场产生较大的影响。在此基础上，提出采用超前地质预报、连通试验等技术，并结合昆仑山隧道、风火山隧道、达坂山隧道等工程实践，对高原冻土区隧道施工地下水防治措施进行了有益的探讨。     

面向高速铁路的CTCS+ATO列控系统研究

为提高高速铁路运输效率和自动化程度,根据珠三角城际铁路CTCS2+ATO列控系统的运用经验,提出高速铁路引入自动驾驶(ATO)的方案。方案采用CTCS+ATO系统结构,根据系统配置分为CTCS+ATO-PFC(Partial Function Configuration)和CTCS+ATO-FFC(Full Function Configuration)两个等级。分别对每个等级的系统功能、地面和车载设备配置进行定义,并提出系统分级实施方案。CTCS+ATO列控系统方案综合考虑我国列控系统的现状和发展方向,为我国高速铁路引入自动驾驶提供参考依据。     

船舶动力装置与设备油液监测技术应用研究

随着船舶维修制度的变革,油液监控技术逐渐应用于船舶领域,成为机械状态监控应用研究领域比较活跃的一个分支,文章主要阐述油液监控技术在船舶中的应用。     

Wave and sea level monitoring and prediction in the service module of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

The need for a Global Ocean Observing System Global (GOOS) is now widely appreciated. Parts of GOOS are currently being implemented already. In this paper, written on the request of the joint Scientific and Technical Committee of GOOS, we present some of the scientific issues that need to be addressed for the further development of the Ocean and Marine Meteorology Service module of GOOS. This module is concerned with monitoring and prediction of sea level (both tsunamis and storm surges) and wind driven waves (wind–sea and swell), among other things. For each of these we discuss the current state-of-the-art, indicate what observations are needed and make suggestions for future modelling development.     

Benthic community and food web structure on the continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay (North Eastern Atlantic) revealed by stable isotopes analysis

The North Bay of Biscay continental shelf is a major French demersal fishery, but little was known on the trophic food web of its benthic communities. In order to determine the benthic trophic web, the objectives of this study are to describe the macro- and megafaunal benthic community structure (species richness, abundance and biomass) and to establish the trophic pathways (food sources and trophic levels) by applying carbon and nitrogen stable isotopic analysis to the main benthic and demersal species (invertebrates and fish). Two distinct benthic communities have been identified: a muddy sand community within the central part of the bay, and an outer Bay of Biscay Ditrupa sand community of higher species richness, abundance and biomass than the muddy sand community. Deposit-feeders, suspension feeders and predators, distributed in three main trophic levels, dominate both communities. Large differences in stable carbon ratio values within the primary consumers provide evidence of two different food sources: i) a pelagic food source made up of recent sedimenting particulate organic matter on which zooplankton and suprabenthos feed and ii) a benthic detrital food source supplying deposit feeders and partly benthic suspension feeders. Differences in isotopic signatures were also observed within the upper trophic levels that allowed estimation of the contribution of each food source component to the diet of the upper consumers. Finally, the use of stable isotopic composition together with the species' feeding strategy allow identification of the main differences between the trophic functioning of the two benthic communities and highlight the importance of the role of detrital pathways in the carbon cycling within the continental shelf benthic trophic web.     

基于GSM-R的铁路平交道口管理信息系统的研究

GSM-R在我国铁路通信中的成功应用,解决了铁路传统通信系统不能解决的地、车数据传输问题,为我国道口防护信息化奠定了坚实的基础。为实现铁路平交道口安全防护的信息化,研究基于GSM-R网络上层应用分支的铁路平交道口管理信息系统是非常必要的。该系统应由“信息采集及系统管理”、“道口调度指挥和应急指挥”、“综合信息发布”3大功能单元构成,实现列车信息和道口信息的实时交换,以及道口信息在较大范围内的共享,以改善道口交通组织和提高道口防护的科技水平。     

枢纽扩建船闸工程上游设计最低通航水位的确定

上游设计最低通航水位是船闸工程建设的关键技术参数之一,直接影响船闸使用性能、投资和工期。针对已建枢纽扩建船闸工程上游设计最低通航水位取值的问题,根据株洲枢纽实测水位,进行枢纽实际最低运行水位和保证率水位的分析,对不同特征水位时二线船闸工程投资情况、一线船闸运行情况及渠化梯级间水位衔接情况进行论述,采用模型试验验证和测算投资比较的方法,得出株洲二线船闸上游设计最低通航水位宜采用38. 3 m的结论。该研究方法对山区、丘陵区枢纽扩建船闸工程具有借鉴意义。     

径流式枢纽改扩建船闸确定最低通航水位的方法

低水头径流式电站往往为不调节水库。为控制库区淹没线,洪水期常采用预泄腾空库容的方式运行,受洪水流量及持续时间不同的影响,不同时期枢纽运行的低水位变化较大,给确定船闸最低通航水位带来了复杂性。以湘江大源渡航电枢纽新建的二线船闸工程为例,采用综合历时曲线法和瞬时水位持续时间、次数进行分析,结合河段的通航实际情况,确定船闸最低通航水位,可为类似径流式枢纽确定船闸最低通航水位提供借鉴。