A simulation evaluation of the maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimator for mixed multinomial probit models

This paper evaluates the ability of the maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) estimation approach to recover parameters from finite samples in mixed cross-sectional and panel multinomial probit models. Comparisons with the maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimation approach are also undertaken. The results indicate that the MACML approach recovers parameters much more accurately than the MSL approach in all model structures and covariance specifications. The MACML inference approach also estimates the parameters efficiently, with the asymptotic standard errors being, in general, only a small proportion of the true values. As importantly, the MACML inference approach takes only a very small fraction of the time needed for MSL estimation. In particular, the results suggest that, for the case of five random coefficients, the MACML approach is about 50 times faster than the MSL for the cross-sectional random coefficients case, about 15 times faster than the MSL for the panel inter-individual random coefficients case, and about 350 times or more faster than the MSL for the panel intra- and inter-individual random coefficients case. As the number of alternatives in the unordered-response model increases, one can expect even higher computational efficiency factors for the MACML over the MSL approach. Further, as should be evident in the panel intra- and inter-individual random coefficients case, the MSL is all but practically infeasible when the mixing structure leads to an explosion in the dimensionality of integration in the likelihood function, but these situations are handled with ease in the MACML approach. It is hoped that the MACML procedure will spawn empirical research into rich model specifications within the context of unordered multinomial choice modeling, including autoregressive random coefficients, dynamics in coefficients, space-time effects, and spatial/social interactions.     

交通拥挤收费经济学原理研究

针对交通拥挤收费合理性的争议．从经济学的角度对城市道路属性、边际费用和边际成本定价原理等方面进行分析，指出拥挤收费通过价格这种市场的手段使外部成本内部化，是一种理性的回归。交通拥挤收费使城市道路这种稀缺资源的产权得到了确定，为市场有效地配置这种资源提供了保障．也为解决日益严重的交通拥挤问题提供了一个很好的思路。     

道路通行能力中车道数因素的数学分析

在实地调研得出道路平均每车道通行能力随着车道数的增加而边际递减的基础上,参照流体力学的研究方法,得出考虑换道的车道交通流动力学模型.采用特征线分析法得到该模型的解析解.运用数学方法分析了边际递减的原因和递减的规律.并运用实测数据验证了数学解释的合理性,得出换道频率的增加是通行能力递减的主要原因.     

钢筋混凝土桁架拱桥病害分析及加固技术

在系统调查与分析钢筋混凝土桁架拱桥病害的基础上,提出了采用增大截面、黏贴钢板、黏贴碳纤维布的综合加固方法,对从事旧桥加固的工程技术人员有一定的借鉴作用。     

真空预压加固吹填流泥强度增长规律试验研究

结合对真空预压的理论认识和工程实践,通过试验对真空预压加固吹填流泥的孔隙水压力、泥面沉降、出水量、含水率、强度参数的变化特征进行分析。试验结果表明：真空预压前期泥面沉降增长迅速,而孔隙水压力增长缓慢;真空预压后期泥面沉降增长缓慢,而孔隙水压力增长较快。分析了真空预压加固吹填流泥强度增长机理,运用有效固结应力法强度增长计算公式结合监、检测数据推算吹填流泥强度增长过程。计算结果表明：理论计算的强度增长规律符合现场实测强度增长规律;真空预压前期土体几乎无强度,真空预压中后期强度增长较快;且抽真空7个月土体强度增长趋势仍未趋于收敛。真空预压加固吹填流泥强度增长的这些特点在真空预压工程设计及施工中应引起重视,应综合考虑强度增长规律及工程经济合理性确定预压时间,并以强度指标作为卸载标准之一。     

Applying social marginal costs pricing to the road sector

This chapter, following the results of the case studies analyzed in the Enact project, will identify and analyze the implications of the possible application of SMCP in PPP’s in the road sector. The main issues analyzed include SMCP revenue formation and its ability to finance the PPP. The paper will focus on market and competition issues like: 1) the problems due to mispriced substitutes; 2) the interdependencies between the tolls and the capacity of different road infrastructures when these are competing for the same demand; 3) since short run social marginal costs do not repay for the investments costs (except in special cases), in the case tolls should cover also the investment costs this will lead to totally different pricing schemes between roads in a same area, with problem of demand shift toward cheaper existing infrastructures, therefore increasing the problem of cost recovery. The incentives caused by the introduction of prices based on SMC’s are also investigated.     

Applying social marginal cost pricing in rail PPPs: Present state, drawbacks and ways forward

The application of social marginal cost pricing (SMCP) in PPP's in the railway sector faces several challenges. We examine in detail the practical applicability of SMCP in railway PPPs from the perspectives of cost accounting and effectiveness of SMCP towards the allocative efficiency goal, addressing the likely drawbacks in conciliating the welfare objectives of SMCP with the objectives of project financing (cost recovery) and value for money that justify the realization of PPP's. To this end, we combine theoretical analysis with the observation of empirical results of a case study. We split the analysis per type of private service provision, which can be for service operation or infrastructure management. For infrastructure management, we recommend splitting the operator remuneration and the track access charges. For service operation, we argue that the correct decision on source of funding of the service operator should depend on the characteristics of the contract.     

船闸输水阀门底缘空化改善措施研究

笔者从提高空化数的角度出发 ,研究了减免阀门底缘空化的措施 ,并比较了各种改善措施的优劣     

无人注水开发模式在旅大29-1项目中的创新与实践

针对边际油田采用无人远程注水模式海管投资较高的问题,创新无人平台就地注水工艺流程,提高注水设备和系统可靠性,升级无人平台自动化控制系统,实现无人平台就地注水,成功在旅大29-1项目得到应用.     

成品油管道增输技术研究

随着成品油需求量和炼油厂加工量的增加,现有成品油管道有时不能满足输送量的要求。为了降低投资,国内外一般优先考虑采用管道增输的方法来解决输送能力不足的问题。文中介绍了国内外常用的几种成品油管道增输技术,包括优化泵站特性、铺设副管及复线、添加管道减阻剂、管道内防腐涂层技术等。文中对各种增输技术的增输原理、优缺点、适应场合、带来的经济效益等进行了分析对比,总结了一套确定成品油管道最优增输方案的理论方法,并通过公式推导出输量增加倍数在不同范围时应采取的增输措施,为成品油管道增输措施的选择提供了依据。