美标高桩码头抗震计算位移法的对比

从原理和适用性的角度对美标高桩码头抗震计算方法进行对比,着重研究了位移法及其中的替代结构法。对替代结构法中推覆曲线的双折线化方式、阻尼比计算、反应谱衰减等影响因素进行分析。通过推覆分析和替代结构法计算变形能力和地震位移、复核码头抗震性能。结合实际案例,采用反应谱法和替代结构法对某高桩码头结构进行抗震分析。结果表明反应谱法趋于保守,不能反映塑性后的荷载衰减,相比而言替代结构法更为准确。而对于替代结构法,不同的等效阻尼比会较大程度影响地震位移结果。     

A stochastic model of traffic flow: Theoretical foundations

In a variety of applications of traffic flow, including traffic simulation, real-time estimation and prediction, one requires a probabilistic model of traffic flow. The usual approach to constructing such models involves the addition of random noise terms to deterministic equations, which could lead to negative traffic densities and mean dynamics that are inconsistent with the original deterministic dynamics. This paper offers a new stochastic model of traffic flow that addresses these issues. The source of randomness in the proposed model is the uncertainty inherent in driver gap choice, which is represented by random state dependent vehicle time headways. A wide range of time headway distributions is allowed. From the random time headways, counting processes are defined, which represent cumulative flows across cell boundaries in a discrete space and continuous time conservation framework. We show that our construction implicitly ensures non-negativity of traffic densities and that the fluid limit of the stochastic model is consistent with cell transmission model (CTM) based deterministic dynamics.     

The effectiveness of a European speed limit versus an international bunker-levy to reduce CO2 emissions from container shipping

In the fight to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping, a bunker-levy is currently under consideration at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Faced with the inability of the IMO to reach an agreement in the short term, the European Commission is now contemplating a unilateral measure of a speed limit for all ships entering European Union (EU) ports. This paper argues that this measure is counterproductive for two reasons. Firstly, because it may ultimately generate more emissions and incur a cost per ton of CO₂ which is more than society is willing to pay. Secondly, because it is sub-optimal compared to results obtained if an international bunker-levy was to be implemented. These elements are illustrated using two direct transatlantic services operated in 2010.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

基于HMM-SVR的船舶动力设备故障模式识别与状态预测研究

船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。     

深海拖曳系统自稳定二级拖体姿态控制研究

二级深拖系统具有可控性强、母船扰动弱等优点,是重要的海洋探测平台。在实际工作中,二级拖体姿态稳定是保证探测数据准确的基本前提。本文以具有自主调节功能的二级拖体为例,对其姿态控制进行研究。首先建立了二级拖缆的“弹簧——阻尼”模型,并在此基础上建立了二级深拖系统的数学模型。其次根据该系统具有非线性、时变性等特点,设计了具有参数自修正功能的模糊自适应PID控制器,以实现在不同工况下对二级拖体的姿态进行控制。仿真结果表明,未加载控制器时,海况变化对拖体姿态有显著影响,其俯仰角和横滚角均会发生大范围波动。加载模糊自适应PID控制器后,拖体通过自主调节,能够使姿态波动控制在较小范围,从而满足工作要求,验证了拖缆数学模型的正确性和所采用的控制方法的可行性。     

安装状态对扭矩扳子检定结果的影响

针对日常使用及检测扭矩扳子的过程中发现的不同安装状态对被检扭矩扳子的示值误差影响很大这一问题,通过大量的试验数据和经验数据相结合的方法,客观评估安装状态对扭矩扳子测量结果的影响。其中,扳手的水平安装状态及安装同轴度对检定结果影响较大。文章旨在帮助检定测试人员得到相对准确的数据。     

基于扩张观测器的船舶动力定位系统反演滑模变结构控制

针对海洋平台船舶动力定位控制系统,结合反演滑模控制与扩张观测器的优势,提出一种基于扩张观测器的船舶动力定位反演滑模控制方法.考虑到系统存在未知外部干扰以及船舶模型参数不确定性的问题,将系统分为内环观测器和外环控制器分别设计,首先利用扩张观测器估计系统的未知状态及不确定项,然后在外环的反演滑模控制器中进行补偿,最后用Lyapunov方法证明系统的稳定性.通过船舶定点控制仿真实验表明,基于扩张状态观测器的反演滑模控制器使得船舶纵荡和横荡的位置及首摇角度逐渐保持在期望值,具有较强的鲁棒性和控制性,能够有效抑制传统滑模控制的抖振问题,有益于船舶工程应用.     

预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥混凝土疲劳应力限值研究

大量预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥在服役期内发生腹板斜裂缝病害,引发了研究人员对于混凝土疲劳应力问题的探讨．结合中国的预应力混凝土桥涵设计规范与混凝土结构设计规范（GB50010—2002）、英国BSEN1992—1—1混凝土设计细则、欧洲CEB—FIPMC1990规范和美国AASHTO2004规范关于混凝土疲劳应力验算的规定,对混凝土疲劳应力验算方法进行了比较．并以某预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥为例,对各规范中混凝土疲劳验算的具体过程进行了计算与分析,验证了规范的合理性以及适用性．分析结果表明,中国规范的疲劳应力限值较国外规范偏高．在对构件进行疲劳设计时,推荐采用CEB—FIP规范提供的验算方法．     

深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值研究

为研究深埋双线铁路隧道衬砌高水压分界值以及高水压作用下的衬砌受力状态,基于双线铁路隧道设计标准,利用有限元软件计算和分析双线铁路隧道衬砌在不同水压作用下隧道衬砌安全系数的变化规律,确定双线铁路隧道衬砌的高水压分界值。研究结果表明:Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.05 MPa(约等于隧道净高一半)和Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下水压力在0~0.1 MPa(约等于隧道净高)范围内变化时,隧道断面安全系数基本不变。在Ⅱ、Ⅲ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.08~0.20 MPa;高水压第二分界值可取为0.40MPa。在Ⅳ、Ⅴ级围岩条件下,双线隧道的高水压第一分界值为0.12~0.35 MPa;高水压第二分界值为0.50 MPa。双线铁路隧道采用标准设计图进行设计时,能够承受的最大静水头为50 m,超过50 m的静水头,则需要优化断面。