基于模糊线性回归的小轿车运行车速区间预测

将小轿车在公路上的运行车速用三角模糊数来表征.基于二级公路上30个样本路段的平曲线半径、纵坡度等线形数据和实测车速,利用模糊线性回归方法建立了小轿车第85百分位运行车速区间预测模型.通过另外10个样本路段数据对该区间预测模型进行了验证,结果表明:小轿车运行车速的95％置信区间大都处于模糊线性预测区间之内;预测得到的模糊中心值与观测值的相对偏差和模糊度与观测值的比值两种评价指标均在10％以内.同时,将模糊中心值和线性回归预测值进行了比较,结果表明:模糊线性回归模型的平均绝对误差、平均相对误差和最大相对误差三个指标均优于线性回归模型,达到了更高的估计精度.     

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

振弦式应变计测试混凝土线膨胀系数的研究

提出了一种在混凝土试件中埋入振弦式应变计测试线膨胀系数的方法,并将测试结果与直接加热法进行了对比,证明本方法测试结果可信,且操作简便。采用本方法对混凝土试件进行了230d的长期测试,得到了混凝土线膨胀系数随龄期变化的规律。结果表明,混凝土线膨胀系数在早龄期（2~3d）变化较为剧烈,后期趋向均匀,并略有减小,与现有研究结论一致。     

加入粘弹性阻尼器的高楼桅杆风振响应分析

高楼顶部设桅杆是一种常见的结构形式以满足建筑功能的要求。为分析在风荷载激励下桅杆对主体结构的影响,以及高耗能粘弹性阻尼器对桅杆和主体结构的振动控制效果,根据Davenport风速谱理论,采用AR线性滤波法模拟出空间、时间相关的脉动风速时程,并采用ETABS有限元软件进行风荷载激励下的时程分析。结果表明,高耗能粘弹性阻尼器的加入使主体结构的桅杆放置层桅杆周围部分杆件的内力有了较大幅度的减小,桅杆的动力响应得到了有效控制。     

舰船通信网络结构复杂性实证分析

针对现代军事信息系统日益呈现出的复杂性和网络化的结构特点,提出基于复杂网络的研究思路.通过把舰船通信实体简化为节点,把节点之间的通信联络简化为边,构建出某舰船通信网络拓扑模型.然后通过计算通信网络的度量参数,验证了舰船通信网络的复杂性特征.为将复杂网络研究成果运用到未来军事信息系统建设中提供了积极的理论启示和参考价值.     

横向刚度对斜腿刚构桥线性稳定性的影响

采用线性稳定性理论计算斜腿刚构桥的稳定性特征,讨论了支座处横向约束刚度和斜腿横向倾斜角度对结构稳定性的影响。分析结果显示,桥梁整体稳定性对横向刚度的变化较敏感,将桥台支座横向刚度简化为无穷大是不安全的,增加横向刚度总体上有利于保证斜腿刚构桥的稳定性。     

铝合金缺口试样疲劳寿命预测新方法研究

借鉴基于断裂力学的Walker裂纹扩展公式的形式,对主ΔSs-N方法中的裂纹扩展公式进行修正,得到一种新的考虑了平均应力影响的等效结构应力ΔSg.由于焊接结构中存在着高值残余应力,平均应力对于焊接接头的疲劳寿命影响并不显著,但对于非焊接缺口件,平均应力的影响是显著的.对11种铝合金缺口试样进行有限元分析,建立以ΔSg为参数的ΔSg-N曲线族,并对得到的数据进行二元线性回归分析,得到不同置信度下的主ΔSg-N曲线.将其与试验得到的以名义应力S和等效结构应力ΔSs为参数的ΔSs-N曲线族进行对比,发现ΔSg-N曲线存在着良好的归一性.     

移动模架法施工连续梁桥线形控制探讨

线形控制是采用移动模架施工连续粱桥的关键技术之一,根据桥面线形控制的原理和方法,结合移动模架法的施工特点,提出了凫洲大桥移动模架法现浇连续箱梁施工的内外模平面线形控制、高程控制、线形监测及调整方案,工程实践表明本文的方案可行。可以为类似工程施工线形控制提供参考。     

A novel approach to design robust fault detection filter for networked control systems

In this paper, an approach for designing robust fault detection filter (RFDF) of networked control systems (NCSs) with unknown inputs is studied. The design aims at implementing the optimal trade-off between robustness of unknown inputs (including the item produced by networked-induced delay) and sensitivity of fault. The key design issue is to introduce an optimal fault detection filter based on NCSs with the control law compensation as the reference residual model of NCSs and to formulate the RFDF design as a model-matching problem. By applying H _∞ optimization technique, linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is given to solve the model-matching problem. The validity of the proposed approach is shown by a numerical example.