基于地理视角的交通事故多发点鉴别分析模型

为了对交通事故多发情况进行全面评价并建立预警机制, 考虑城市道路交通系统的地理视角特点, 综合交通事故多发点鉴别分析方法, 研究了事故多发点分析模型。首先明确被分析道路交通系统的内涵和层次结构, 针对交通系统的点、线、面不同层次确立基本评价指标体系, 集成常规统计法、矩阵分析法和改进的质量控制法等构建事故多发点鉴别分析模型, 并研究了参数的选取及分析结果的输出形式, 最后对某地9条道路的事故多发情况进行了分析。分析结果表明: 道路4为事故多发道路, 道路3具有最高的事故次数和当量事故次数, 道路5具有最高的事故率, 经综合评价, 确定事故多发道路为道路3、4、5, 因此, 该模型可以对道路交通事故多发点进行多层面鉴别分析。     

高职学生社会公德意识调查与分析

本文通过对高职学生社会公德意识现状的调查及数据分析,提出了优化高职学生公德意识的途径.     

珠江三角洲城市群连接道路功能分级体系研究

以珠江三角洲为例,分析了城市群区域交通特征、交通空间分布特征等;基于交通区位论和经济引力模型,确定了珠江三角洲城市群连接道路交通网络框架;以功能为核心,将城市群连接道路功能划分为通道功能、干线功能、集散功能和服务地方功能4个层次;进行了功能分级,划分为高速公路、城市群连接道路I级、城市群连接道路II级、城市群连接道路Ⅲ级、地方道路5个等级,建立了城市群连接道路功能分级体系。     

Does the income elasticity of road traffic depend on the source of income?

An extensive body of literature addresses the income elasticity of road traffic, in which income is typically treated as a homogenous quantity. Here we report evidence of heterogeneity in cross-sectional estimates of the elasticity of vehicle-kilometres of travel (VKT) with respect to income, when household income is disaggregated on the basis of income source.The results are generally intuitive, and show that the cross-sectional income elasticity of road traffic is not homogeneous as is typically specified in transport planning models. We show that in a number of circumstances the cross-sectional elasticity with respect to aggregate household income is of the opposite sign in comparison to more refined estimates of elasticity disaggregated by income source. If further research confirms that the elasticities we report here are causal in nature, neglecting the elemental effects could result in misleading results affecting practical infrastructure-investment and policy decisions, particularly as the mix of income sources shifts (e.g. if, as society ages, pension income increases as a share of all income).These results are of interest to both researchers and forecasters of travel demand, as well as designers of future travel survey instruments; the latter group must decide how to generate data about respondents’ income. Current expert guidance is to collect a single estimate of aggregate income at the household level. Future travel survey design choices will bound the analyses that can be supported by the resulting survey data, and therefore methodological research to re-visit the trade-offs associated with such choices is warranted.     

Using the built environment to oversample walk,transit, and bicycle travel

Characteristics of the built environment (BE) have been associated with walk, transit, and bicycle travel. These BE characteristics can be used by transportation researchers to oversample households from areas where walk, transit, or bicycle travel is more likely, resulting in more observations of these uncommon travel behaviors. Little guidance, however, is available on the effectiveness of such built environment oversampling strategies. This article presents measures that can be used to assess the effectiveness of BE oversampling strategies and inform future efforts to oversample households with uncommon travel behaviors. The measures are sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and positive predictive value (PPV). To illustrate these measures, they were calculated for 10 BE-defined oversampling strata applied post-hoc to a Seattle area household travel survey. Strata with an average block size of <10 acres within a ¼ mile of household residences held the single greatest potential for oversampling households that walk, use transit, and/or bicycle.     

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.     

Enhancing stated preference surveys in transportation research: the contribution of geographic information systems

In this paper we argue that visualization, data management and computational capabilities of geographic information systems (GIS) can assist transportation stated preference research in capturing the contextual complexity of many transportation decision environments by providing respondents with maps and other spatial and non-spatial information in graphical form that enhance respondents' understanding of decision scenarios. We explore the multiple inherent contributions of GIS to transportation stated preference data collection and propose a framework for a GIS-based stated preference survey instrument. We also present the design concepts of two survey prototypes and their GIS implementation for a sample travel mode choice problem.     

干线公路沥青路面养护大中修工程方案设计探讨

结合某干线路面大中修工程方案设计中的路况调查结果,对其路面使用品质加以评价,有利于得出合理的路面大中修方案。     

VMS下驾驶员路径选择行为分析与建模

为了实现交通流在路网中的合理分配,可变信息板(VMS)通过发布动态交通信息来引导驾驶员选择最合理路径.通过构造基于陈述偏好调查(SP调查)的诱导信息下驾驶员路径选择行为的有序多分类Logit模型,分析各因素对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响.分析结果表明,年龄、出行距离、可选路径、VMS信任度、改变路径频率对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响较大.在驾驶员个人属性中,年龄对驾驶员的路径选择行为影响最大;在出行属性中,驾驶员对出行距离和可选路径最为敏感;在对VMS的认知和服从属性中,驾驶员对VMS信任度越高,按照VMS诱导信息改变出行路径的概率越大;改变路径频率越高的驾驶员,越易改变出行路径.     

特种装备项目的节能评估方法研究

特种装备的购置及改造项目属于固定资产投资范畴,在审批环节中应进行节能审查。本文以科学考察船为例,基于分析科学考察船与其他类固定资产的不同,阐述了科学考察船建设方案的节能评估、能源消费种类及能耗测算方法,并就评估过程中存在的问题提出了相关建议。