A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints Part 2: a supplement to the rule based S–N approach

The first part of this paper presented the required statistics and stochastic models for reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded plate joints. This present Part 2 suggests a probabilistic damage tolerance supplement to the design S–N curves for welded joints. The goal is to provide the practising engineer with simple tools that predict the reliability against fatigue fracture during service life. The impact of the chosen fatigue design factors (FDF) and the uncertainty in the applied stresses is revealed. The effect of an in-service inspection programme is also predicted. The results are presented as dimensionless matrices and suggested for use in support of decision-making at the design stage, without any advanced fracture mechanics modelling and stochastic simulation. One important advantage of this format is that the probability levels are presented regardless of actual weld class and target service life (TSL). This is obtained by introducing the FDF as a key parameter to the results. This parameter is defined as the ratio of predicted fatigue life over TSL. FDF is always calculated in the S–N approach which is mandatory in fatigue life prediction. Various welded details (classes) will have the same reliability level for the same FDF. This is true at the end of TSL and at earlier stages, i.e. fractions of TSL. The absolute value of TSL is immaterial for a given FDF. In the case of in-service inspection, the inspection interval is also given without dimensions as a fraction of TSL.

Only the influence of future scheduled inspections is treated. Updating based on actual inspection results is not included as the scope of work is inspection planning at the design stage. Results for some frequent cases occurring in practice are readily derived and presented.     

澜沧江绣花滩群整治试验研究

在分析澜沧江绣花滩群中各种滩险滩性的基础上,同时考虑滩群中各滩险的滩性迥异、成因复杂以及之间的相互影响、相互制约的关系,整治工程方案布置以“顺应河势、因势利导、中水控制、低水整治、统筹兼顾”为主要原则,对澜沧江绣花滩群整治工程进行了河工模型试验研究,提出的整治措施已被实际工程采纳。     

多跨长联预应力混凝土连续箱梁桥的次轴力分析

悬臂浇筑施工的多跨长联连续箱梁桥,张拉合龙束,合龙束预加力压缩梁体产生轴向变形,合龙口一侧支座摩阻力会约束梁体轴向变形,故产生预加力次轴力。次轴力和次弯矩一样,是预应力次内力的一项,且次轴力一般体现为拉力。无论从抗裂还是从抗弯的角度看,次轴力是一种不利的内力,在设计时对它的忽略,将会产生工程隐患。以一座14跨悬臂浇筑施工的多跨长联预应力混凝土连续梁桥为背景,计算出各跨合龙束引起的次轴力。然后对次轴力产生的原理和分布特点,以及减小次轴力的措施进行了讨论。最后在规范的基础上,增加预加力次轴力的考虑项,给出多跨连续梁桥正截面抗弯设计、抗裂验算的修正公式。     

大型集装箱船舱口盖疲劳寿命研究

提出大型集装箱船舱口盖的疲劳问题,基于S-N曲线提出分析方法,对某8530TEU集装箱船上的典型舱口盖结构进行疲劳寿命分析,并将计算结果与船级社规范推荐方法计算的结果相比较,得到有益结论.     

装备项目风险管理体系的研究

首先对装备项目全寿命周期内各阶段风险管理的工作内容、相互关系进行了分析,参考系统工程三维结构概念和国内学者提出的风险管理体系的论述,提出了新的三维风险管理体系概念模型,对结构、要素进行了定义和阐述,对其理论指导作用和实际使用意义做了初步探讨,提出了进一步研究的方向,以期对装备项目的风险管理工作和理论研究起到参考和促进作用.     

Prediction of fatigue life and estimation of its reliability on the parts of an air suspension system

Air suspension systems have been implemented in various commercial vehicles, such as buses and special purpose trucks, because of the comfortable ride and easy height control. An evaluation of the durability of vehicle parts has been required for service life and safety starting in the early stages of design. The cyclic load applied to the vehicle can cause fatigue failure of parts, such as the suspension frame. This paper presents a method to predict the fatigue life of the suspension frame at the design stage of the air suspension system used in a heavy-duty vehicle. To estimate the fatigue life using the SN method, the Dynamic Stress Time History (DSTH) is necessary for the part of interest. DSTH can be obtained from the results of the flexible body dynamic analysis using the Belgian road simulation and the Modal Stress Recovery (MSR) method. Furthermore, the reliability of the predicted fatigue life can be evaluated by considering the variations in material properties. The probability and distribution of the expected life cycle can be obtained using experimental design with a minimum number of simulations. The advantage of using statistical methods to evaluate the life cycle is the ability to predict replacement time and the probability of failure of mass-produced parts. This paper proposes a rapid and simple method that can be effectively applied to the design of vehicle parts.     

基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测

以灰色理论的标准GM（1,1）模型和马尔可夫TPM理论为基础,提出了基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。利用灰色马尔可夫理论预测腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括：最大允许腐蚀深度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测。并基于该方法,采用VB系统开发了实用软件,简便可靠。该方法可以在腐蚀速率波动比较大的情况下预测油气管道的剩余寿命,为油气管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。     

隧道成型控制爆破技术及围岩损伤范围研究

为解决因初期支护格栅拱架限制周边眼钻凿精度而引起的隧道周边超欠挖问题,以青岛地铁1号线瓦屋庄站至贵州路站区间工程为例,介绍“长、短眼”控制爆破技术,提出“长、短眼”布置方案,并采用质点峰值振动法和激光隧道断面检测仪分别对“长、短眼”爆破技术产生的围岩损伤范围和隧道超欠挖量进行分析和监测。结果表明： 1）采用“长、短眼”控制爆破技术,Ⅳ级围岩段隧道周边超欠挖控制在150 mm以内,且理论计算每米进尺回填混凝土节省成本7 182元,可提高工程经济效益; 2）长短眼爆破产生的损伤范围为0.29~0.33 m,隧道拱顶沉降、净空收敛量均控制在10 mm以内,施工效果好。     

一种模拟发震断层动力特性的隧道地震试验方法

为模拟隧道在发震断层中的近场动力响应和破坏机制,提出一种模拟长大隧道穿越活动断层动力响应的新型模型试验装置,并设计一种通过改变试验平台底部组合弹簧参数来改变模型箱振动特性的试验方法。该试验装置不仅能解决传统试验方法中受迫振动的问题,而且能模拟断层错动引起地层位移由发震断层位置向远端逐渐减小的过程,进而模拟穿越活动断层时长大隧道断层段到非断层段沿纵向的振动特性变化。该方法通过改变组合弹簧中单个弹簧单元的刚度系数和弹簧单元的个数等,可改变试验箱中断层在断层错动发生时的振动频率和错动位移,进而得到振动频率-组合弹簧刚度和错动位移-组合弹簧刚度的回归公式,可通过前期试验得到的回归公式来设置相应的组合弹簧形式,对后续试验中多种不同振动频率和错动位移的试验工况进行模拟。     

车辆制动衰退性能分析

本文对轻型载货车下长坡制动过程进行研究与分析,通过理论计算和试验数据,得到车辆连接下长坡过程中,随温度升高,制动器制动力矩产生温度衰退,最高可达到15%到20%。同时随着制动次数的增加,真空伺服系统产生真空衰退,引起整车的制动性能衰退达到25%左右。两者相加整车的制动性能达到40%左右。最后提出对于山区轻型载货车加装排气辅助制动系统及提升真空泵的抽真空性能来补偿整车制动性能的衰退。