“蜜蜂式”开发边际油田方案及技术

中海油对边际油田开发一直非常重视，尤其近几年在依托开发方面取得了很大进展；目前高油价推动了无依托边际油田的开发，中海油有关单位都积极参与独立开发边际油田的方案和技术研究，推动边际油田的开发。针对上述有关方面的研究进行介绍。     

八角形FPSO关键技术与应用

介绍浮式生产储油装置（FPSO）在我国海洋石油的应用与发展。中海石油在海洋石油开发中已投入13艘FPSO，成功开发了十多个海上油田，FPSO已成为我国海洋石油开发的战略性技术。目前正进行八角形FPSO等研究，由于八角形FPSO在形状上不同于常规船型FPSO，其设计、建造和使用上也有差别；又因八角形FPSO具有多点系泊和良好水动力性能等优点，它将在小型油田或边际油田开发中发挥重要作用，因此，论述八角形FPSO的研究成果和应用前景乃具有重要意义。     

珠海拱北海关桂山码头修复工程设计

在拱北海关桂山码头修复设计中,认真分析了码头的现状后,采取了有针对性的措施,使码头地基承载力满足使用要求。     

基于完全信息静态博弈论的工程安全监管分析

利用博弈论为工程安全监管提供一个示范,提出了“边际政绩收益”概念,为政府安全监管提供一个参考指标,并且通过安全监管博弈分析,建立博弈模型,对模型进行求解,对工程监管决策中可控因素进行计算,得到一些有利于我国工程安全监管决策的结论．     

新型简易井口保护架在CFD2-1边际油田开发中的应用探讨

考虑到CFD2-1油田位于渤海西北部,属于油气储量不确定且油品物性未知的浅水边际油田,常规油田开发方式投资大、风险高,为此,借鉴海上风电基础结构形式提出一种新型油田开发模式,即采用新型简易井口保护架的结构形式,以降低油田开发风险及试采作业费用。该井口保护架具有结构简单、安装快捷、对施工资源要求较低、拆除简单方便等特点,提高了试采井口在边际油田开发中的应用效率,降低了油田前期试采开发投入。     

平纵组合路段事故严重程度致因辨识模型

为解析平纵组合路段事故严重程度致因及影响机制,在系统选取影响事故严重程度潜在变量的基础上,利用有序Logit模型获取影响事故严重程度的显著自变量,并运用偏比例优势模型修正变量参数,从而构建平纵组合路段事故严重程度致因辨识的两阶段模型 (TSM),以云南省元(谋)—双(柏)公路为例进行分析.结果表明：提出的TSM模型比有序概率模型拟合度更优,更适用于研究该问题;涉及车辆数、平曲线曲率及竖曲线曲率等7个变量对一般及以上事故具有正效应,驾驶人性别及接入口等3个变量对一般及以上事故具有负效应;就影响程度来看,接入口最大(边际效应为14.466%),驾驶人性别次之(10.581%),竖曲线长度最小(0.114%).     

道路交通拥挤成本的博弈分析及其运管对策

利用道路交通的车速一车流量的函数关系，推导出交通个人成本与社会成本的计算公式。从博弈论纳什平衡理论得出：交通拥挤造成交通边际社会成本大于边际个人成本、用户得到了额外社会消费获利的结论。交通运管对策应根据不同道路拥挤情况征收不同的拥挤费。     

Towards marginal cost pricing: A comparison of alternative pricing systems

European urban areas are marred by the problems of congestion and environmental degradation due to the prevailing levels of car use. Strong arguments have thus been put forward in support of a policy based on marginal cost pricing (European Commission 1996). Such policy measures – which would force private consumers to pay for a public service that was previously provided "for free" – are, however, notoriously unpopular with the general public and hence also with their elected representatives – the politicians. There is thus an obvious tension between economic theory, which suggests that marginal cost pricing is the welfare maximising solution to urban transport problems, and practical experience, which suggests that such pricing measures are unwanted by the affected population and hence hard to implement through democratic processes. The AFFORD Project for the European Commission has aimed to investigate this paradox and its possible solutions, through a combination of economic analysis, predictive modelling, attitudinal surveys, and an assessment of fiscal and financial measures within a number of case study cities in Europe. In this paper the methodology and results obtained for the Edinburgh case study are reported in detail. The study analyses alternative road pricing instruments and compares their performance against the theoretical first best situation. It discusses the effect of coverage, location, charging mechanism and interaction with other instruments. The paper shows that limited coverage in one mode may lead to a deviation from the user pays principle in other modes, that location is as important as charge levels and that assumptions about the use of revenues are critical in determining the effect on equity and acceptability. Finally the results show that a relatively simple smart card system can come close to providing the economic first best solution, but that this result should be viewed in the context of the model assumptions.     

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运用微观经济学方法，阐述了当前超载治理中存在的“罚-超悖论”和“重罚策略”两种主流观点。运用运输经济学相关理论修正并改进了重罚策略模型，使用该模型分析了超载执法处罚的取缔率与边际处罚对业者装载决策的影响，推导出有效执法的必要条件是保证一定的“最小期望边际处罚”，解释了车辆装载量在执法条件下的微观与宏观变化趋势。通过对超载车辆处罚设计与实际治超过程中一些约束因素的分析，解释了当前普遍依靠多执法点进行重复处罚的原因与该策略可能存在的弊端。     

Methodology to determine service delivery levels for public transportation

When designing transit services, the Level-of-Service concept has been widely used by transport planners and service providers to assess the service quality of an existing transit system. In addition to the service quality assessment, service providers also need to estimate the service levels that will satisfy a maximum number of users and potential users, across all socio-economic groups, so as to maximize patronage. This paper demonstrates a method using the concept of ‘user satisfaction levels’ and their ‘zone of tolerance’, along with total utility and marginal utility for service providers, to provide a range of service delivery levels for individual transit service attributes in the city of Kolkata. This range of service levels provides a guideline for service providers within which they can consider making an improvement in service level. However, the final decision on service improvement is an outcome of both financial and infrastructural feasibility.