世界级城市交通发展战略演变综述及启示

为借鉴世界级城市交通发展经验、把握大城市交通发展的内在规律,对纽约、伦敦、巴黎、东京、新加坡、香港等世界级城市的交通战略发展演变历程进行回顾,并分析历次规划的实施效果。同时,将世界级城市交通发展划分为大都市初步形成、都市圈快速发展、都市圈繁荣稳定、世界级城市功能巩固提升四个阶段,总结不同阶段实施的交通战略。最后,在识别当前中国一线城市所处交通发展阶段的基础上,对其未来的交通发展战略提出建议。     

中小城市公共交通优先发展的策略研究——以浙江省长兴县为例

中小城市作为我国经济结构的重要基础,是加快推进城镇化水平的中坚力量。但伴随着中小城市的城市化进程,城市交通问题日益突出,从城市健康可持续发展的角度考虑,急需优先发展公共交通。以浙江省长兴县为例,对我国中小城市公共交通发展存在的问题进行了分析探讨,并从土地公交协调发展、线网层次合理布局、客流通道优先通行、城乡公共客运统筹发展等方面提出了系统性的策略措施。     

Measuring the impact of urban policies on transportation energy saving using a land use-transport model

Various projects all over the world are attempting to build smart cities in hopes of achieving energy-efficient and livable communities, but most of them are aiming to fulfill their goals technologically. However, the energy efficiency and livability of a city are affected by not only these technological factors but also urban structures that encompass residential areas, offices, transportation networks, and other facilities. Urban policies intervene in transportation and land-use conditions and thereby change how citizens consume energy and go about their daily lives as the actors in the urban system alter their behavior. This means that energy efficiency and quality of life share close ties. Assessments of urban policies thus need to consider the reactions of actors to the intervention.     

低碳经济背景下河谷型城市交通级配体系研究

文章针对交通方式的合理比例分配问题,提出了交通级配的概念,构建了城市交通级配体系,并基于对西部河谷型城市道路网络特征的分析,以兰州市为例,提出了相应的交通管理措施,为城市绿色交通建设的实现提供方法借鉴。     

国省道路面大中修分车道设计探讨

随着路网的完善,国省道公路大中修是未来公路养护部门的主要工作。通过某省道大中修工程,根据左右幅病害及交通轴载完全不同的现状,提出国省道路面大中修分车道设计理念。     

中等城市公共自行车系统发展策略

在推进低碳绿色的城市交通体系的发展背景下,公共自行车系统在城市短距离出行、与公交无缝换乘以及休闲旅游方面作用显著,大力发展公共自行车已成为各个城市交通系统建设的重点内容。以泰州市为例,对公共自行车系统在中等城市的适用范围及交通定位进行分析,提出中等城市公共自行车发展的一般策略,为其他城市提供借鉴。     

小城市公共交通服务评价指标体系

从基础设施服务和企业运营服务两方面,构建适合小城市的公共交通服务评价指标体系。选取站点覆盖率、车辆拥有率、乘客换乘次数和搭乘步行时间四项指标衡量城市基础设施的服务能力,行车准点率、运营车速、乘客候车时间和高峰满载率作为企业运营服务能力的衡量指标,并根据公共交通服务评级的等级分析指标的量值范围。     

中等城市慢行交通系统规划分析

目前城市慢行交通系统的规划与建设逐渐引起各界关注,但其规划内容及技术手段尚处于摸索阶段。在中等城市中慢行交通占有更高的比例,通过分析中等城市自身发展特点来规划慢行交通,使之提升城市空间功能,创建宜居环境。以渭南市为例,并在此基础上提出慢行交通系统规划的技术路线。     

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为提高交通规划与决策质量,有必要妥善处理交通调查无回答问题. 但是在相关研究中尤其在发展中国家此问题常被忽视. 本文统计分析了发展中城市居民出行调查中项目无回答的缺失模式,进一步分析项目无回答作为模型缺失数据对基于期望最大化的数据修补的多项Logit集计的出行方式选择模型的影响. 选择三个发展中城市代表调查无回答的三个等级做案例分析. 首先,根据项目无回答缺失模式,利用Pearson开方检验得出重要的出行者社会经济属性和出行背景因素. 其次,利用基于缺失模式分析的期望最大化估计,处理缺失数据得到无偏数据集作为基准. 此外,利用独立样本的T检验检验了零假设,即有无期望最大化估计情况下的模型参数估计是相同的. 用基于R平方系数的内在效度检验计算估计情况下的模型预测偏差. 最后,考虑缺失数据的影响,评估一个重要的指标——出行时间价值. 结果表明,在发展中城市,问卷回答者和不回答者的社会经济背景存在很大差异. 缺失率和缺失模式均对出行方式选择模型的参数和预测精度有很大影响. 考虑缺失模式的出行时间价值计算表明, 项目无回答对出行时间价值的影响被过高估计了.     

Effects of Item Nonresponses on the Performance of Travel Mode Choice Models for Developing Cities: A Comparative Analysis

To enhance the quality of transportation planning and policy making, it is necessary to properly deal with the nonresponse issues in transport surveys. However, such nonresponse issues especially in developing countries have been ignored in literature. This paper first statistically identifies the missing patterns of item nonresponse (INR) in person trip survey data collected in developing cities and then analyzes the effects of INR on the performance of travel mode choice model (an aggregated multinomial logit model) based on expectation-maximization (EM) imputation method. As a case study, three developing cities representing three levels of INR are analyzed as follow. Firstly, the statistically significant social-economic attributes of trip makers and trip-context factors are identified with respect to INR in the missing pattern analysis by using Chi-Square test method. Secondly, EM imputation based on missing pattern analysis is applied to deal with missing data to obtain the unbiased data set as a benchmark. Thirdly, the null hypothesis that the model parameters estimated with and without imputation are equal is statistically tested using independent-sample T tests and further the internal validity performed in terms of R-squared coefficients is used to identify the discrepancy of model predictions between with and without imputations. Finally, one critical indicator – value of travel time (VOTT) is evaluated considering the effects of missing data. The results confirm that the respondents and non-respondents are quite different in terms of the social-economic background in the developing cities and further show that not only the missing rates but also the missing patterns greatly affect the performance of mode choice model in terms of model parameters and the prediction ability. The calculation of VOTT reveals that the VOTT affected by INR tends to be overestimated.