多个变电站的操作票专家系统研究

介绍了面向对象的多变电站操作票专家系统。基于面向对象的分析和设计技术，设计了适合调度操作的网络拓扑、知识库和推理机制。采用Bodand C＋＋Builder作为开发工具，并以其自带的Paradox数据库作为后台建立系统数据库。开发了实用的操作票专家系统，具有方便、可靠、高效等优点。     

Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.     

Pruning and ranking the Pareto optimal set,application for the dynamic multi‐objective network design problem

Solving the multi‐objective network design problem (MONDP) resorts to a Pareto optimal set. This set can provide additional information like trade‐offs between objectives for the decision making process, which is not available if the compensation principle would be chosen in advance. However, the Pareto optimal set of solutions can become large, especially if the objectives are mainly opposed. As a consequence, the Pareto optimal set may become difficult to analyze and to comprehend. In this case, pruning and ranking becomes attractive to reduce the Pareto optimal set and to rank the solutions to assist the decision maker. Because the method used, may influence the eventual decisions taken, it is important to choose a method that corresponds best with the underlying decision process and is in accordance with the qualities of the data used. We provided a review of some methods to prune and rank the Pareto optimal set to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The methods are applied using the outcome of solving the dynamic MONDP in which minimizing externalities of traffic are the objectives, and dynamic traffic management measures are the decision variables. For this, we solved the dynamic MONDP for a realistic network of the city Almelo in the Netherlands using the non‐dominated sorting genetic algorithm II. For ranking, we propose to use a fuzzy outranking method that can take uncertainties regarding the data quality and the perception of decision makers into account; and for pruning, a method that explicitly reckons with significant trade‐offs has been identified as the more suitable method to assist the decision making process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Traffic signal timing problems with environmental and equity considerations

Traffic signal timings in a road network can not only affect total user travel time and total amount of traffic emissions in the network but also create an inequity problem in terms of the change in travel costs of users traveling between different locations. This paper proposes a multi‐objective bi‐level programming model for design of sustainable and equitable traffic signal timings for a congested signal‐controlled road network. The upper level of the proposed model is a multi‐objective programming problem with an equity constraint that maximizes the reserve capacity of the network and minimizes the total amount of traffic emissions. The lower level is a deterministic network user equilibrium problem that considers the vehicle delays at signalized intersections of the network. To solve the proposed model, an approach for normalizing incommensurable objective functions is presented, and a heuristic solution algorithm that combines a penalty function approach and a simulated annealing method is developed. Two numerical examples are presented to show the effects of reserve capacity improvement and green time proportion on network flow distribution and transportation system performance and the importance of incorporating environmental and equity objectives in the traffic signal timing problems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

可燃气体爆炸压力下海洋平台防爆墙数值仿真研究

采用等效TNT方法计算了海洋平台复杂结构在油气爆炸冲击波作用下的动态响应,采用多欧拉-拉格朗日耦合方法对三种不同防爆墙结构进行数值模拟研究.模拟结果显示:在油气爆炸冲击波的作用下,平台舱室变形、失效后破裂,冲击波通过破口传入平台其它舱室;对海洋平台爆炸舱室的围壁采用原结构、梯形结构和半椭圆三种防爆墙结构进行数值对比研究,考虑防爆墙的能量吸收和甲板能量吸收这两个方面,半椭圆防爆墙结构具有更好的防爆效果.     

Spar平台上部模块就位过程多浮体响应分析

研究多浮体扰动下的海上就位过程时域模拟,建立起重船和Spar平台水动力模型,在频域下求解水动力系数,使用纽马克方法求解包含吊块在内的多浮体时域运动方程.通过研究不同浪向,风速,以及时间节点上的响应,得到了就位过程的安全和危险操作海况.     

大跨径多塔斜拉桥非线性静力分析

以一座在建的多塔结合梁斜拉桥为工程背景,运用大型有限元结构分析软件ANSYS,建立多塔斜拉桥的空间非线性有限元模型,考虑拉索垂度效应、结构大位移和梁柱效应3种几何非线性因素,进行了大跨度多塔斜拉桥空间非线性静力分析,给出了桥梁结构主梁、桥塔以及斜拉索的位移及内力云图,结果表明:多塔斜拉桥的主跨跨中位移变形最大,为33.2 cm;边塔弯矩随高度的变化各不相同,塔底弯矩最大;斜拉索的最大索力在边塔外侧的辅助墩附近。     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的交通流量预测模型

城市交通流具有复杂性、时变性和随机性,实时准确的交通流量预测是实现智能交通诱导及控制的前提.综合分析交通流量影响因素的基础上,进行多路段的交通流量预测研究,提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机的交通流量预测改进模型,并应用平安大街的流量数据进行实例验证.结果表明,该模型具有学习速度快、跟踪性能好及泛化能力强等优点,在交通流预测中更具有实用性和推广性.     

回路风量法解算多风机串并联复杂通风网络

对斯考德－恒斯雷法（Scott Hinsley）和牛顿-拉夫森法解算通风网络进行了深入分析,分析了现有斯考德－恒斯雷法通风网络解算软件解算地下工程通风网络的局限性,提出了算法改进方法,解决了风机数大于独立回路数情况下的斯考德－恒斯雷法通风网络解算问题。对这2种解算方法进行对比分析,结果表明,牛顿-拉夫森法解算多风机串并联复杂通风网络具有一定的优越性。