城市轨道交通客运服务标准修订的国际化方向探讨

中国要成为世界城市轨道交通的强国,相关标准国际化是重要的方向.分析对比了现行国家标准《城市轨道交通客运服务》和国际主流客运服务标准规范的目标、原则、方法和内容,认为我国现行标准存在服务质量视角、定义、质量框架、质量改进方法、质量评价准则的差距;缺少乘客运输能力、乘客评价服务质量、乘客权利、残疾人服务权利和监管方面的内容...     

Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

Feeder-trunk or direct lines? Economies of density,transfer costs and transit structure in an urban context

A feeder-trunk scheme has been labeled as superior in urban areas due to the presence of economies of density (decreasing average operating cost) along the avenues served by trunk lines. We compare this structure against three types of direct lines structures (no transfers) to serve a stylized public transport network where several flows converge into a main avenue, simultaneously optimizing fleet and vehicle sizes considering both users’ and operators’ costs. The best structure is shown to depend not only on the total passenger volume but also on demand imbalance, demand dispersion in the origins and the length of the trunk line. The region where the feeder-trunk structure dominates depends largely on the value assigned to the pure transfer penalty.     

The effect of contract renewal and competitive tendering on public transport costs,subsidies and ridership

In this paper, we aim to estimate the effect of contract renewal as well as competitive tendering on public transport costs, subsidies, and ridership. More specifically, we examine to what extent (multiple) contract renewals and introduction of competitive tendering for long-term public transport contracts affect ridership, operational costs and subsidies in concession areas governed by public transportation authorities from 2001 until 2013 in the Netherlands. Our identification strategy improves on the literature as we are able to control for all time-invariant unobserved factors, such as network and area characteristics by using panel data. We show that when renewing long-term contracts, operational costs are reduced by at least 10%, whereas subsidies fall even stronger. For contracts that are renewed at least twice, the reduction in costs is even more substantial and in the order of 16%. We find that the effect of competitive tendering is completely absent, suggesting that the threat of competitive tendering is sufficient in a market where the majority of concessions is competitive tendered. Contract renewal not only reduces costs and subsidies, but simultaneously increases public transport ridership by 7.7%. Furthermore the vehicle-hours elasticity of operational costs is 0.40, pointing to strong economies of density. The geographical scale elasticity of operational costs is around one, which indicates constant returns to scale with respect to the geographical size of the concession area. This suggest that the current size of the Dutch concession area is optimal with respect to costs.     

Preferences of travellers for using automated vehicles as last mile public transport of multimodal train trips

In the recent years many developments took place regarding automated vehicles (AVs) technology. It is however unknown to which extent the share of the existing transport modes will change as result of AVs introduction as another public transport option. This study is the first where detailed traveller preferences for AVs are explored and compared to existing modes. Its main objective is to position AVs in the transportation market and understand the sensitivity of travellers towards some of their attributes, focusing particularly on the use of these vehicles as egress mode of train trips. Because fully-automated vehicles are not yet a reality and they entail a potentially high disruptive way on how we use automobiles today, we apply a stated preference experiment where the role of attitudes in perceiving the utility of AVs is particularly explored in addition to the classical instrumental variables and several socio-economic variables. The estimated discrete choice model shows that first class train travellers on average prefer the use of AVs as egress mode, compared to the use of bicycle or bus/tram/metro as egress. We therefore conclude that AVs as last mile transport between the train station and the final destination have most potential for first class train travellers. Results show that in-vehicle time in AVs is experienced more negatively than in-vehicle time in manually driven cars. This suggests that travellers do not perceive the theoretical advantage of being able to perform other tasks during the trip in an automated vehicle, at least not yet. Results also show that travellers’ attitudes regarding trust and sustainability of AVs are playing an important role in AVs attractiveness, which leads to uncertainty on how people will react when AVs are introduced in practice. We therefore state the importance of paying sufficient attention to these psychological factors, next to classic instrumental attributes like travel time and costs, before and during the implementation process of AVs as a public transport alternative. We recommend the extension of this research to revealed preference studies, thereby using the results of field studies.     

Generation and recovery of airborne delays in air transport

The analysis of the causes behind the appearance and propagation of delays is one of the major topics inside Air Transport Management research. Existing research focuses by and large on Air Traffic Flow Management regulations and reactionary delays; less attention has been devoted to the study of the mechanisms governing the generation and absorption of delays while airborne, in spite of their important economical and environmental consequences. Here we present a methodology to detect delay-generating events, based on the comparison of planned and real trajectories; these events are then used to characterise several aspects of the dynamics of the system, e.g. its resilience. We apply this methodology to a historical data set of flights crossing the European airspace during 2011, and observe an overall resilient system, able to absorb as much delays as it generates; yet resilience is not constant, but strongly depends on the phase of the flight, and shows high spatial and temporal heterogeneities. We anticipate the proposed methodology to open new doors for the development of a better systemic performance, by enabling the characterisation and understanding of this fundamental type of delay.     

Age related annual crash incidence rate ratios in professional drivers of heavy goods vehicles

ObjectivesEvidence concerning crash risk for older heavy vehicle drivers is sparse, making it difficult to assess if it is prudent to encourage older drivers to remain in the workforce in a climate of labour shortages. The objective of this study was to estimate annual crash rate ratios of older male heavy vehicle drivers relative to their middle aged peers.MethodsData utilized in this study includes all crashes meeting inclusion criteria involving heavy goods vehicles, categorised as rigid trucks and articulated trucks; this data was recorded by the New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority. The exposure to the risk of a crash was represented by distance travelled for each vehicle type and year, by age of driver, as estimated by the Australian Survey of Motor Vehicle Use. Negative binomial regression modelling was applied to estimate annual crash incidence rate ratios for male drivers in various age groups.ResultsA total of 26,146 crashes occurred in New South Wales during 1999–2006, involving a total of 54,191 vehicles; removing observations that did not meet the inclusion criteria, 19,736 observations remained representing 12,501 crashes. For rigid trucks, the incidence rate ratio for drivers aged 65+ years, compared to 45–54 year olds, was 0.74 (95% CI 0.51, 0.98). For articulated trucks, the annual crash incidence rate ratio for drivers aged 65+ years compared to 45–54 year olds was 1.4 (95% CI 0.96, 1.9), and that for drivers aged 55–64 years compared to 45–54 year olds was 1.1 (95% CI 0.83, 1.3).ConclusionsOlder male professional drivers of heavy goods vehicles have lower risk of crashes in rigid vehicles, possibly due to accrued driving experience and self-selection of healthy individuals remaining in the workforce. Thus, encouraging these drivers to remain in the workforce is appropriate in the climate of labour shortages, as this study provides evidence that to do so would not endanger road safety.     

Optimal combinations of selected tactics for public-transport transfer synchronization

Handling efficiently and effectively real-time vehicle control is of major concern of public transport (PT) operators. One related problem is on how to reduce the uncertainty of simultaneous arrivals of two or more vehicles at a transfer point. Improper or lack of certain control actions leads to have missed transfers, one of the undesirable features of the PT service. Missed transfers result in increase of passenger waiting and travel times, and of passenger frustration. This work focuses on reducing the uncertainty of missed transfers by the use of control tactics in real-time operation. The developed model improves the PT service performance by optimally increasing the number of direct transfers and reducing the total passenger travel time. This model consists of two policies built upon a combination of two tactics: holding and skip-stop/segment, where a segment is a group of stops. The implementation of the concept is performed in two steps: optimization and simulation. The optimization searches for the best combination of operational tactics. The simulation serves as a validation of the optimal results under a stochastic framework. A case in Auckland, New Zealand is used. The results show that by applying the holding-skip stop, and holding-skip segment tactics the number of direct transfers are increased by about 100% and 150%, and the total passenger travel time is reduced by 2.14% and 4.1%, respectively, compared with the no-tactic scenario. The holding-skip segment tactic results with 47% more direct transfers than the holding-skip stop tactic for short headway operation.     

基于属性数学的铁路重载运输安全评价

铁路重载运输设施设备要求高,确保其安全运行意义重大。属性数学理论主要研究和解决定性描述的度量和不同的定性描述之间的关系问题,基于此,从人员、设备、环境及管理4个方面建立包含3层级28项指标的铁路重载运输安全综合评价指标体系;采用德尔菲法和模糊统计法得到指标初始权值,并通过灰色关联法判断指标权值的合理性。建立铁路重载运输安全综合评价模型,重点利用属性集和属性测度理论研究并制定单指标等级划分标准,采取正规模糊子集以及置信度准则等方法构造属性测度函数以及属性识别准则。以呼和浩特铁路局大包线重载运输为例,应用所建模型评价其安全等级,评价结果符合呼和浩特铁路局实际情况,表明所建模型能较好适用于铁路重载运输安全综合评价。