西部地区公路货运周转量可拓聚类预测

文章以可拓聚类的原理和一般预测过程为依据,结合我国西部地区公路货运周转量预测的特点,在分析国外先进经验的基础上,完成对西部地区公路货运周转量的预测。基于GDP和进出口总额的公路货运周转量可拓聚类预测,以区间的形式表示。可以相对减少对单纯点的数值预测的局限性和误差,当给定一个未来环境因素时,可以判定出公路货运周转量变化的类型,从而预测未来公路货运周转量的变化范围,得到预测结果是可行的。     

论人身保险合同订立中保险人的答复义务

人身保险合同订立中,作为要约书面形式的投保书通常未标明有效期限,为合理分担合同未成立前的风险,保证交易的安全,实现当事人间利益的平衡和社会正义,应当强制保险人在法定时间或合理期限内答复, 而无论承诺与否;否则,即构成默示承诺。     

What drives people to accept automated vehicles? Findings from a field experiment

This field study aims at understanding the influence of direct experience of an automated vehicle (AV, Level 3) and explaining and predicting public acceptance of AVs through a psychological model. The model includes behavioral intention (BI) to use self-driving vehicles (SDVs, Level 5), willingness to re-ride (WTR) in our AV (Level 3), and their four potential determinants, namely perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEU), trust related to SDVs, and perceived safety (PS) while riding in our AV. The last two determinants are largely ignored, but we consider them critical in the context of AVs. Three-hundred students were invited as participants (passengers) to experience the AV. The trust, PU, PEU, and BI of the participants were recorded prior to their experiencing the AV; after this experience, all the constructs of the psychological model were recorded. The participants’ experience with the AV was found to increase their trust, PU and PEU (but not BI), the consistency between PU/PEU and BI, and the explanatory power of BI. The model explained 55% of the variance in BI and 40% in WTR. PU, trust, and PS were found to be steady and direct predictors of both the acceptance measures; PEU predicted BI only after the participants’ AV experience. Mediation analysis showed that trust also can indirectly affect AV acceptance through other determinants. Out-of-sample prediction confirmed the model’s predictive capability for AV acceptance. The theoretical contributions and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Connectivity’s impact on mandatory lane-changing behaviour: Evidences from a driving simulator study

The connected environment provides driving aids to help drivers making efficient and safe driving decisions. The literature to date is devoid of conclusive evidences of the connected environment’s impact on drivers’ mandatory lane-changing (MLC) behaviour. As such, the objective of this study is to examine MLC behaviour through a driving simulator experiment using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Participants with diverse background performed the experiment in randomised driving conditions: baseline (without the driving aids), connected environment with perfect communication, and connected environment with communication delay. Repeated measure ANOVA in the form of linear mixed model and Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) are employed to analyse various driving performance indicators during MLC event. We find that drivers in the connected environment tend to wait longer, increase the initial speed, and maintain a larger spacing, compared to when they are driving in the baseline condition. In addition, drivers in the connected environment are likely to reject fewer number of gaps and select relatively bigger gap sizes. Furthermore, post-encroachment time (PET) in the connected environment is higher across different gap sizes, indicating that the connected environment makes MLC safer. The GEE model on gap acceptance suggests that the perfect communication and communication delay has positive and negative impact on the accepted gap size, respectively, and the GEE model on lane-change duration indicates that lane-change duration tends to increase in the connected environment.     

An empirical investigation on consumers’ intentions towards autonomous driving

Major steps towards implementation of autonomous and connected transport are being taken nowadays. The trend of automation technology being used in vehicles by the most important vehicle manufacturing industries is expected to move closer to high or fully Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) through technological advancements in sectors of robotics and artificial intelligence. Vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities are planning to be available on market, in full scale, in the next years. In the longer term substantial benefits are mainly expected for accessibility to transport, safety, traffic flow, emissions, fuel use and comfort. All these potential societal benefits will not be achieved unless AVs are accepted and used by a critical mass of people. Addressing these challenges, this paper: (a) proposes a technology acceptance modelling process by extending the original Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to explain and predict consumers’ intensions towards AVs, (b) based on the proposed TAM-extended framework, a 30-question survey was conducted in order to investigate the factors influencing consumers’ intensions to use and accept AVs. Results show that the constructs of perceived usefulness, perceived ease to use, perceived trust and social influence, are all useful predictors of behavioral intentions to have or use AVs, with perceived usefulness having the strongest impact. The insights derived from this study could significantly contribute to ongoing research related to technology acceptance of AVs and are expected to allow automobile industries to improve their design and technology.     

高速铁路通信工程施工质量验收标准解读

新修订的《高速铁路通信工程施工质量验收标准》TB 10755于2018年发布,2019年2月1日正式实施。本文结合工程实际,综合考虑技术进步、管理水平发展、国家相关法律法规以及有关标准的更新等因素,总结设计、施工、监理等单位的经验,从标准修订的背景,新标准整体上的变化,以及各系统的细节变化等方面,对新验收标准进行了详细解读。     

静力触探CPT在水力吹填砂土地基承载力评估中的应用

为了更好控制科威特LNGI工程水力吹填砂土地基质量,合理评估水力吹填砂土地基处理后的承载力,选取基于CPT的3种经验公式,计算满足设计承载力200 kPa作用下所需的最小锥尖阻力qc值。结果显示,Bowles(1996)法和BS EN1997-1:2004 Annex D推荐法计算的最小qc值与水力吹填质量等级有关,但两者结果较接近,而EslaamizaadRobertson(1996)法计算的结果较小,仅为3. 8 MPa。基于保守考虑,最终结果取前两种方法平均值中的最大值7. 5 MPa。同时基于现场实际,在地基处理后预先进行CPT检测,得到平均锥尖阻力远大于计算验收值,并由大型载荷板ZLT试验验证了满足长期沉降的设计承载力。可见,在地基处理后可预先采用CPT对处理后地基处理承载力进行评估并辅助少量大型ZLT试验进行验证,可有效对地基承载力进行验收。     

沈从文论鲁迅:在疏离与接受之间

在鲁迅逝世前，沈从文就多有论及鲁迅的文字，从这些文字中，可以发现沈从文对于鲁迅在认识与评价上的复杂性。沈从文从文学本体论出发，一方面肯定鲁迅在小说创作上的重要成就及其影响，对作为文学家的鲁迅持认同态度，另一方面又否定鲁迅的杂文创作及其社会政治意义，对作为思想家与战士的鲁迅表现出拒斥的态度。这就使得这一时期沈从文对于鲁迅的认识与评价居于疏离与接受之间，表现出一种复杂难解的矛盾态度。     

浅谈企业非经营性资产的划分及其管理

为了加强企业中的国有资产管理 ,本文阐述了企业内部划分经营性资产和非经营性资产的意义和必要性 ,对非经营性资产作了界定和具体划分 ,对如何加强非经营性资产的管理作了详细的论述 ,并提出实例