基于BP人工神经网络的滑坡预测分析

文章以汶川地震引发的滑坡为研究对象,以震中距、地震烈度、坡度、前缘高程、坡高和岩性等影响坡体稳定性的因素为切入点,利用BP人工神经网络对实际坡体的稳定性进行了预测分析。结果表明,BP人工神经网络方法能有效预测坡体的稳定情况。     

汶川地震震中区高速公路隧道超前地质预报方法

映汶高速公路公路位于四川汶川大地震震中,受地震强烈构造作用影响,隧址区岩体裂隙发育,松散破碎,存在构造富水,地震垮塌堆积体众多,地质条件极为复杂。文章根据本工程隧道的工程地质问题,通过对国内外隧道超前地质预报常用方法的分析,提出了针对本工程的隧道超前地质预报方案,并对地质预报的实施应用及效果进行了举例说明。     

Developing an enhanced weight-based topological map-matching algorithm for intelligent transport systems

Map-matching (MM) algorithms integrate positioning data from a Global Positioning System (or a number of other positioning sensors) with a spatial road map with the aim of identifying the road segment on which a user (or a vehicle) is travelling and the location on that segment. Amongst the family of MM algorithms consisting of geometric, topological, probabilistic and advanced, topological MM (tMM) algorithms are relatively simple, easy and quick, enabling them to be implemented in real-time. Therefore, a tMM algorithm is used in many navigation devices manufactured by industry. However, existing tMM algorithms have a number of limitations which affect their performance relative to advanced MM algorithms. This paper demonstrates that it is possible by addressing these issues to significantly improve the performance of a tMM algorithm. This paper describes the development of an enhanced weight-based tMM algorithm in which the weights are determined from real-world field data using an optimisation technique. Two new weights for turn-restriction at junctions and link connectivity are introduced to improve the performance of matching, especially at junctions. A new procedure is developed for the initial map-matching process. Two consistency checks are introduced to minimise mismatches. The enhanced map-matching algorithm was tested using field data from dense urban areas and suburban areas. The algorithm identified 96.8% and 95.93% of the links correctly for positioning data collected in urban areas of central London and Washington, DC, respectively. In case of suburban area, in the west of London, the algorithm succeeded with 96.71% correct link identification with a horizontal accuracy of 9.81 m (2σ). This is superior to most existing topological MM algorithms and has the potential to support the navigation modules of many Intelligent Transport System (ITS) services.     

Using on-board logging devices to study the longer-term impact of an eco-driving course

In this paper the long-term impact of an eco-driving training course is evaluated by monitoring driving behavior and fuel consumption for several months before and after the course. Cars were equipped with an on-board logging device that records the position and speed of the vehicle using GPS tracking as well as real time as electronic engine data extracted from the controller area network. The data includes mileage, number of revolutions per minute, position of the accelerator pedal, and instantaneous fuel consumption. It was gathered over a period of 10 months for 10 drivers during real-life conditions thus enabling an individual drive style analysis. The average fuel consumption four months after the course fell by 5.8%. Most drivers showed an immediate improvement in fuel consumption that was stable over time, but some tended to fall back into their original driving habits.     

面向车联网多点协作联合传输的安全认证与密钥更新方法

未来基于车联网的车路协同和自动驾驶场景要求车-车/车-路等网络通信在保证数据安全的前提下,具备低时延、高可靠的特性,从而保证车辆的行驶安全以及车/人的信息安全。LTE-V2X作为车联网通信方案之一,LTE的多点协作联合传输（Coordinated Multiple Points-Joint Transmission,CoMP-JT）技术不仅可以减少车辆在高速行驶过程中进行基站（Evolved Node B,eNB）切换时的通信中断,还能通过多个基站的协同传输来辅助提高网络的数据传输性能。然而当前LTE标准中的安全密钥管理方案无法满足多点协作联合传输过程中的密钥管理场景。针对该问题,提出一种可用于LTE-V2X车联网通信中多点协作传输切换的安全密钥生成与更新算法。该算法由车辆生成基站切换请求并使用随机数、共享密钥、目标基站公钥对切换请求进行加密、广播;基于密码学特性,目标基站不仅可基于私钥从密文请求中计算出共享密钥,还可以计算得到后续的会话密钥;车辆则可以基于目标基站位置信息、生成请求时的随机数计算出会话密钥,从而实现在只需要1次密钥传输的前提下,达成车辆与基站之间的密钥共享和密钥更新,并从密码学角度针对该密钥生成与更新算法进行验证分析。研究结果表明：在LTE-V2X多点协作传输时的基站切换过程中,该算法能够确保车辆与基站进行后向/前向密钥分离的安全认证以及会话密钥建立;与传统方案相比,所提方法可减少26.4%的基站切换过程中引入的通信时延,基站信道负载均仅为传统方案的1/2,并且随基站小区范围内车辆数目增加,基站的信道负载也仅线性增加,提升了该算法在LTE-V2X车联网场景中的适用性。     

基于BP网络的球鼻首参数化优化

本文以某集装箱船为研究对象,对降速航行后的球鼻首进行优化。采用Catia建立船体三维模型,为了产生不同形状的球鼻首,选取球鼻特征参数来描述其基本结构;采用拉丁超立方试验抽样方法得到12组不同形状的球鼻首,提出运用非线性拟合能力较强的BP网络构建球鼻首参数和阻力系数之间的关系模型;采用遗传算法对训练后的网络进行极值寻优。结果显示,优化船型的阻力系数显著降低,说明该方法对球鼻首的优化有一定的借鉴意义。     

船舶电子证书应用及监管思考

对于如何保证船舶证书和技术文件的完整可查,提出相应的船舶电子证书应用及监管思考。介绍船舶电子证书可进一步拓宽无纸化办公领域、提高检验过程的便利性、提高港口检查的高效性,并可大幅减少证书制作成本、缩短寄送时间,有效提升工作效率;同时,可促进相关部门船舶智能化管理的优化升级。     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

Locating rental stations and bikeways in a public bike system

To determine the spatial distribution of rental stations and bikeways in a public bike system, this paper proposes a facility location and network design model. The model is developed as a multi-objective programing problem that considers four objectives (minimizing cyclist risk, maximizing cyclist comfort, minimizing adverse impacts on traffic and maximizing service coverage) and multiple constraints (monetary budget, network connectivity, station spacing, bikeway types, station number and value ranges of decision variables). The ε-constraint method solves the programing problem for the public bike system in Daan District, Taipei City, Taiwan. The nine non-dominated alternatives generated are all markedly better than existing locations of rental stations and bikeways. Scenario analysis results indicate that increasing the construction budget for bikeways significantly improves cyclist safety and comfort whilst increasing the adverse impact on traffic. Planners can use this model to develop public bike systems that spatially integrate rental stations and bikeway networks.     

云南省民航客运发展预测

民航运输是云南省在进行综合交通运输建设的重点之一,也是该省在未来十四五(2021-2025年)和十五五(2026-2030年)规划期间的研究热点。本文以云南省为研究范围,以省内民航客运为研究对象,选取省内主要的社会经济因素为影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)、反向传播神经网络算法(BP神经网络算法)和回归分析法,构建了省内民航客运的预测模型,得出省内各主要机场在十四五末和十五五末的预计旅客吞吐量,对省政府在进行机场改扩建上有一定的指导意义。