Minimum acceptable time for turning off idling engines: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper examines the influence of different factors on motorist willingness to comply with idling stop regulations, as determined using stated preference analysis. Motorists were surveyed at urban roadsides in Taiwan, and the results obtained were analyzed using a partially adaptive model. The analysis showed that the standing time and turnoff idling engine while parking are both significant variables, and arise from risk aversion behavior. Environmental perceptions and convenience of use are the most influential factors, according to elasticity analysis. The study also verifies that a partially adaptive model is an appropriate model to consider censored data in a Triple-Bounded Dichotomous Choice analysis. These results will be useful as a reference for improving implementation of idling reduction regulations.     

Have tropical marine protected areas worked? An initial analysis of their success

A multinomial choice framework was used to analyze data from hypothetical storm forecast scenarios administered via mail survey to a random sample of U.S. Gulf Coast residents. Results indicate that the issuance of a mandatory evacuation notice and the presence of higher wind speeds had the largest influence on increasing the likelihood of evacuation. Age, race, disability, distance, and education were significant in explaining one's decision to wait relative to choosing to evacuate. Blacks and disabled individuals were strictly less likely to wait and more likely to make an immediate evacuation decision. Hurricane Katrina evacuees and those with an evacuation destination identified were also more likely to decide to evacuate, but were also more likely to wait before deciding. Results indicate that residents of mobile homes were more likely to either evacuate or wait before making a decision, but strictly less likely not to evacuate. Respondents very confident in being rescued were strictly more likely not to evacuate. Results indicate that not having an evacuation destination identified was the most influential factor regarding the likelihood of not knowing what choice to make.     

Origin软件在隧道监控量测数据处理中的应用

介绍Origin软件的基本功能及其应用。利用Origin软件实现了对量测数据的绘图、非线性拟合等处理,获得可靠的参数及直观的图形。以石龙山隧道施工监控中量测数据处理的实例,并据此指导了隧道的开挖作业和支护结构的设计与施工。     

桥梁超重荷载与限载标准的确定

为了分析公路运营中超重荷载对桥梁的影响，以陕西省府谷-店塔公路上运煤超载车辆为调查对象，根据车辆装载特点和轴型分布特征，将超载车辆分为9种类型，分析了9种车型的超载、超限情况；利用线性回归，得出超载与超限的函数关系。利用等代荷载方法，与公路-Ⅰ级荷载相比较，确定出9种车型的限载系数和限载标准，评价了限载后车辆荷载特性，认为车辆限载后宜使用多轮、多轴运营车型。     

Theoretical analysis of natural frequency of externally prestressed concrete beam based on rigidity correction

A dynamic test on externally prestressed simply supported concrete beams separately with three typical types of tendon distributions was conducted. The results show that the natural frequencies of the beams increase with the increase in the prestressing force at,the tensioning stage, and the natural frequencies decrease after the cracks occur in the beams. Following the calculation formula of natural frequency of externally prestressed beam, which was reported in a literature, the natural frequencies of the experimental beams are calculated, and big errors are found between the test results and the calculated ones of natural frequency values. As a result, this paper has tried to adopt two methods to correct the rigidity parameter of the concrete beam in the formula for natural frequency calculation, and to use the corrected formula to calculate the frequencies of the experimental beams. The calculation results indicate a good consistency with the experimental ones, which verifies the feasibility of the corrected formula.     

Lane-harmonised passenger car equivalents for heterogeneous expressway traffic

In order to account for variations in traffic composition during traffic analysis, passenger car equivalent (PCE) factors are used to convert flow rates of various vehicle classes into flow rates in terms of passenger car units (PCUs). Earlier studies have developed various methods to estimate PCE values but only a few of them are based on uninterrupted traffic flow, particularly for flow regimes with heterogeneous traffic where differential (lower) speed limits are imposed on commercial vehicles. This paper proposes a lane-harmonisation approach, which leverages on the high variation in traffic composition across the lanes, to estimate PCE factors for urban expressways. Multiple linear regression is used and the PCE factors obtained for motorcycles, light goods vehicles, and heavy goods vehicles are 0.65, 1.53, and 2.75, respectively. The estimated capacity flow rate after the application of the obtained PCE factors is around 2200 PCUs per hour per lane.     

散货船运输市场周期性分析与预测

国际散货船航运市场在国际航运市场中占有举足轻重的地位,其走势具有周期性,可以预测船舶航运市场的整体趋势,进一步对全球经济形势分析预测。通过对克拉克森报告进行分析和调研,根据调研结果并结合新冠疫情影响确定了散货船航运市场的主要影响因素,采用相关股票指数和数据对各影响因素量化,对历史数据建立时滞模型并进行多元回归分析,进而建立时滞回归模型,构造了代价函数并采用梯度下降法建立多变量线性回归模型,得出表征散货船市场情况的波罗的海指数(BDI)与影响其走势的几种主要因素之间的代数关系,从而用近几年各影响因素的值来预测未来几个月内波罗的海指数的发展趋势,为船市的进一步布局规划提供参考。     

基础设施公私合营模式融资影响因素及空间溢出效应研究

在城市层面，影响基础设施PPP(公私合营模式)项目融资额的因素具有多样性。本文基于 2015—2017年我国地级市面板数据，采用空间回归模型对地级市基础设施PPP项目融资额的影 响因素进行实证分析，并验证了PPP项目融资额在空间层面具有溢出效应。研究结果表明：空间 误差模型相比混合OLS回归模型，对于分析PPP项目融资额影响因素的拟合效果更好；PPP项目 融资额在城市层面上具有显著的正向空间溢出效应，即一个城市PPP项目融资额更容易受到相 邻城市PPP项目融资额的影响。地方政府财政缺口、地区生产总值、固定资产投资额、人口密度 对PPP项目融资额虽然都具有显著相关关系，但在不同地区间影响的差异性较大。地方政府财 政缺口在中东部城市与PPP项目融资额呈现显著正相关，即地方政府财政缺口越大，城市越倾向 于采用PPP模式进行基础设施投融资；而在西部城市，两者间这种相关关系则不显著。     

远洋船舶空调系统的动态负荷仿真分析

采用黑箱模型理论建立了船舶多功能舱室动态负荷数学模型,经分析求解,获得了某典型欧亚远洋航线上的船舶动态负荷变化规律.结果表明:船舶空调负荷随航区、航行时刻发生显著变化,通风负荷占总负荷的51.92%,而舱壁导热、辐射负荷仅分别占总负荷的7.47%,6.68%;同一航区同一时刻,各功能舱室负荷最大值是最小值的2.684倍;此外,运用回归分析知,可变舱室负荷的91.72%受室外温度变化的影响.     

城市隧道出口公交车换道行为对交通流的影响

为了研究城市隧道出口处公交车的换道行为对交通流的影响,以城市隧道出口公交车的换道特性为研究对象,阐述并分析了公交车在城市隧道出口换道过程中的3种影响状态.然后采用摄像法采集相关数据并分析,借助SPSS软件构建了关于公交换道频率、公交换道持续时间、最大公交换道长度及其存在时间、隧道交通流量与车头时距关系的多元线性模型,并进行了相关性检验,得出了公交车换道对城市隧道出口交通流影响的主要因素.