高速公路车速离散性与交通事故的关系及车速管理研究

对高速公路的车速标准差和亿车公里事故率的数据进行回归分析,建立了二者的关系模型,模型表明车速分布越离散,事故率越高,从而为高速公路的车速限制提供了理论依据。利用中国14条高速公路的地点车速调查数据,对15％位车速、85％位车速与单圆曲线的曲率变化率CCRs进行回归分析,分别建立了85％位车速与CCRs的回归模型以及15％位车速与CCRs的回归模型,利用这些模型提出了合理的基于交通安全的车速限制建议值。     

击实膨胀粘土变形曲线特征的研究

以湖南潭邵高速公路K174-K186地段所取的4种膨胀粘土样为例，通过大量室内膨胀试验，对比研究了膨胀速度曲线、收缩速度曲线的特征。研究结果表明，尽管膨胀粘土的膨胀、收缩过程有很多相似特征，但两者并非是完全可逆的过程，其吸水膨胀速度远比失水收缩速度快。同时，利用非线性最小平方拟合方法对胀缩曲线进行拟合，并给出胀缩曲线的曲线回归方程及其各类参数的物理意义。研究结果为膨胀粘土堤坝边坡设计以及膨胀粘土地基加固、处理提供了重要的依据。     

Aircraft trajectory forecasting using local functional regression in Sobolev space

This paper considers the problem of short to mid-term aircraft trajectory prediction, that is, the estimation of where an aircraft will be located over a 10–30 min time horizon. Such a problem is central in decision support tools, especially in conflict detection and resolution algorithms. It also appears when an air traffic controller observes traffic on the radar screen and tries to identify convergent aircraft, which may be in conflict in the near future. An innovative approach for aircraft trajectory prediction is presented in this paper. This approach is based on local linear functional regression that considers data preprocessing, localizing and solving linear regression using wavelet decomposition. This algorithm takes into account only past radar tracks, and does not use any physical or aeronautical parameters. This approach has been successfully applied to aircraft trajectories between several airports on the data set that is one year air traffic over France. The method is intrinsic and independent from airspace structure.     

Analysis of child pick-up during daily routines and for daytime no-notice evacuations

In a no-notice disaster (e.g., nuclear explosion, terrorist attack, or hazardous materials release), an evacuation may start immediately after the disaster strikes. When a no-notice evacuation occurs during the daytime, household members are scattered throughout the regional network, and some family members (e.g., children) may need to be picked up. This household pick-up and gathering behavior was seldom investigated in previous work due to insufficient data; this gap in our understanding about who within families handles child-gathering is addressed here. Three hundred fifteen interviews were conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area to ascertain how respondents planned their response to hypothetical no-notice emergency evacuation orders. This paper presents the influencing factors that affect household pick-up and gathering behavior/expectations and the logistic regression models developed to predict the probability that parents pick up a child in three situations: a normal weekday and two hypothetical emergency scenarios. The results showed that both mothers and fathers were more likely to pick up a child under emergency conditions than they were on a normal weekday. For a normal weekday, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability of parents picking up children; in other words, the farther parents are from their children, the less likely they will pick them up. In an emergency, effects of distance on pick-up behavior were significant for women, but not significant for men; that is, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability that mothers pick up a child, but had a less significant effect on the fathers’ probability. Another significant factor affecting child pick-up behavior/expectations was household income when controlling for distance. The results of this study confirm that parents expect to gather children under emergency conditions, which needs to be accounted for in evacuation planning; failure to do so could cause difficulties in executing the pick-ups, lead to considerable queuing and rerouting, and extend the time citizens are exposed to high levels of risk.     

影响沥青混合料VMA的因素分析

施工过程中对下面层Superpave25、中面层Superpave20两种类型的混合料现场取样,在实验室使用旋转压实成型试件测得试件体积指标,通过抽提试验分析级配与生产配合比的差异,运用多元线性回归方法分析影响矿料间隙率(VMA)的主要因素,并且通过工程实例验证回归公式的正确性。影响下面层VMA的4个主要因素为筛孔0.15 mm通过率、筛孔0.6 mm通过率、筛孔0.075 mm通过率、筛孔4.75 mm通过率;影响中面层VMA的4个主要因素为筛孔0.6 mm通过率、筛孔1.18 mm通过率、筛孔0.15 mm通过率、筛孔19 mm通过率。     

沥青混合料矿料间隙率试验统计分析研究

采用相同级配不同材料利用马歇尔正交试验分析了级配与矿料间隙的相关性。在相同的集料、沥青用量和压实功的情况下,利用数据统计软件SPSS对马歇尔试验结果进行统计,建立矿料间隙率与贝雷法评价集料级配参数之间的回归模型并进行了检验。     

水火弯板残余变形预报的数值和量纲分析(英文)

Line heating process is a very complex phenomenon as a variety of factors affects the amount of residual deformations. Numerical thermal and mechanical analysis of line heating for prediction of residual deformation is time consuming. In the present work dimensional analysis has been presented to obtain a new relationship between input parameters and resulting residual deformations during line heating process. The temperature distribution and residual deformations for 6 mm, 8 mm, 10 mm and 12 mm thick steel plates were numerically estimated and compared with experimental and published results. Extensive data generated through a validated FE model were used to find co-relationship between the input parameters and the resulting residual deformation by multiple regression analysis. The results obtained from the deformation equations developed in this work compared well with those of the FE analysis with a drop in the computation time in the order of 100 (computational time required for FE analysis is around 7 200 second to 9 000 seconds and where the time required for getting the residual deformation by developed equations is only 60 to 90 seconds).     

柔性路面级配碎石基层弹性模量取值研究

级配碎石材料具有显著的非线性特点,因此级配碎石弹性模量取值需考虑路面结构参数的影响.本文采用正交方法对影响柔性路面级配碎石基层应力状态的路面结构参数进行了分析,认为沥青面层厚度和土基模量是影响级配碎石基层弹性模量的主要因素.通过多元非线性回归分析,建立路面参数与级配碎石弹性模量的关系,提出了级配碎石基层弹性模量计算公式,较目前的经验取值方法更合理.     

基于回归分析的龙泉港出海闸高淹没度下水位流量关系率定

龙泉港出海闸排水受外海潮汐影响显著,不适宜采用堰闸流量系数法进行推流。结合龙泉港出海闸水文过程试验的实测资料,以水力学公式为基础,采用回归分析法率定得到了高淹没度状态下的水位流量关系式,并对关系式进行了符号检验、适线检验、偏离检验和精度分析,结果表明：回归分析法率定得到的出海闸高淹没度状态下的水位流量关系成功通过了三项检验,定线精度能够达到一类精度标准,可以在受潮汐影响的出海闸水位流量关系率定中推广使用。     

响应面分析法在隧道相似材料试验中的应用

基于数理统计响应面分析法中的二次回归通用旋转法,将粘聚力与内摩擦角作为铁路隧道软弱围岩的研究指标:以重晶石、石英砂和凡士林等混合物作为铁路隧道软弱围岩的相似材料,通过应力控制式三轴试验仪进行常规三轴试验;利用非线性同归分析的方法对实验结果进行分析,分别得出相似材料配比与围岩粘聚力及内摩擦角的变化规律.综合考虑粘聚力与内摩擦角两个指标之后,最终得出与模型试验所需围岩条件相匹配的相似材料的重晶石、石英砂与凡士林的最佳配比为9.25:4.56:0.67.