基于最小最大概率回归的混沌时间序列全局预测

提出了使用最大化最小概率机器回归MPMR方法进行混沌时间序列的全局预测,在分析最大化最小概率机器MPM及用于回归的原理的基础上,MPMR方法被用于Mackey-Glass混沌时间序列多步预测.在对该序列进行1至20步的预测中,MPMR方法较局步加权线性回归方法具有更好的预测效果.核函数形状参数及回归管道宽度ε的选取将直接影响MPMR回归技术的系统性能,试验中我们使用了交叉验证的方法确定这两个参数值.试验证明,核函数形状参数和回归管道宽度取值都为2和3的情况下,预测效果更为理想.     

应用非线性回归法求解换热管内对流给热系数

介绍了用Wilson图解法求解管壳式换热器管内对流给热系数关联式的方法及该方法在计算过程中存在的问题．提出了一种应用非线性回归分析的求解方法,采用非线性回归分析和Wilson图解法进行修正相结合的方法,求解出换热器管内对流给热系数关联式并与经典经验综合式进行比较。结果表明：该方法具有计算简单、快捷,结果准确、可靠的优点,可在换热器对流传热计算中推广运用。     

轿车白车身重量目标设定方法

文章探讨了影响轿车白车身重量的因素,包括总质量,车身扭转刚度,长、宽、高等尺寸参数,并通过最佳子集回归分析找到影响轿车白车身主要因素。最后,基于多元线性回归分析,研究最佳影响因素与白车身重量间的关系,并推导出一种用于轿车白车身重量目标设定方法,为项目研发过程中车身重量目标的开发设定提供重要参考。     

Analysis of child pick-up during daily routines and for daytime no-notice evacuations

In a no-notice disaster (e.g., nuclear explosion, terrorist attack, or hazardous materials release), an evacuation may start immediately after the disaster strikes. When a no-notice evacuation occurs during the daytime, household members are scattered throughout the regional network, and some family members (e.g., children) may need to be picked up. This household pick-up and gathering behavior was seldom investigated in previous work due to insufficient data; this gap in our understanding about who within families handles child-gathering is addressed here. Three hundred fifteen interviews were conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area to ascertain how respondents planned their response to hypothetical no-notice emergency evacuation orders. This paper presents the influencing factors that affect household pick-up and gathering behavior/expectations and the logistic regression models developed to predict the probability that parents pick up a child in three situations: a normal weekday and two hypothetical emergency scenarios. The results showed that both mothers and fathers were more likely to pick up a child under emergency conditions than they were on a normal weekday. For a normal weekday, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability of parents picking up children; in other words, the farther parents are from their children, the less likely they will pick them up. In an emergency, effects of distance on pick-up behavior were significant for women, but not significant for men; that is, increasing the distance between parents and children decreased the probability that mothers pick up a child, but had a less significant effect on the fathers’ probability. Another significant factor affecting child pick-up behavior/expectations was household income when controlling for distance. The results of this study confirm that parents expect to gather children under emergency conditions, which needs to be accounted for in evacuation planning; failure to do so could cause difficulties in executing the pick-ups, lead to considerable queuing and rerouting, and extend the time citizens are exposed to high levels of risk.     

新疆地区含砂低液限粉土路基回弹模量试验研究

通过新疆地区低液限粉土路基的室内杠杆承载板法试验,分析了影响土基回弹模量E0的主要因素:压实度K、含水率ρ、细粒土粉粘粒组成等,并总结回弹模量随这些因素的变化规律及相关关系。先考虑单一因素对于不同土质的土,当含水量为最佳含水量时其压实度与回弹模量之间具有良好的线性关系;当压实度一定时其回弹模量与含水率之间用乘幂函数回归也具有良好的线性关系。结合考虑压实度和含水率来回归分析回弹模量与它们之间的关系,结果与单一考虑时是一致的,并对今后的研究方向提出了建议。     

沥青路面温度状况的统计分析

根据高温季节沥青路面温度观测结果,探讨了沥青路面高温温度场的分布特点,并通过逐步线性回归,建立了沥青路面在任意深度处的日最高温度计算关系式.计算式拟合结果与实测数据比较表明,该式具有较高的精度.     

基于轿车-行人事故重建的行人颅脑损伤研究

通过深入的轿车-行人事故调查研究建立了行人事故数据库,挑选了其中12例轿车-行人碰撞事故,运用轿车-行人碰撞多体模型进行了事故重建.根据其结果,采用回归分析方法建立了运动学参数与行人颅脑损伤的相关回归模型,求得各参数之间的相关性.研究结果表明,轿车-行人碰撞速度与头部碰撞时间、头部碰撞相对速度、行人抛出距离以及头部损伤HIC值之间有着显著的相关性;速度限制和改进汽车前部结构可在一定程度上降低行人头部损伤风险.     

Data-driven fuel consumption estimation: A multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Providing guidance and information to drivers to help them make fuel-efficient route choices remains an important and effective strategy in the near term to reduce fuel consumption from the transportation sector. One key component in implementing this strategy is a fuel-consumption estimation model. In this paper, we developed a mesoscopic fuel consumption estimation model that can be implemented into an eco-routing system. Our proposed model presents a framework that utilizes large-scale, real-world driving data, clusters road links by free-flow speed and fits one statistical model for each of cluster. This model includes predicting variables that were rarely or never considered before, such as free-flow speed and number of lanes. We applied the model to a real-world driving data set based on a global positioning system travel survey in the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that the independent variables we chose influence the fuel consumption rates of vehicles. But the magnitude and direction of the influences are dependent on the type of road links, specifically free-flow speeds of links. A statistical diagnostic is conducted to ensure the validity of the models and results. Although the real-world driving data we used to develop statistical relationships are specific to one region, the framework we developed can be easily adjusted and used to explore the fuel consumption relationship in other regions.     

Time-dependent drivers’ merging behavior model in work zone merging areas

This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the actual work zone merging traffic data, we propose a time-dependent logistic regression model considering the possible time-varying effects of influencing factors, and a standard logistic regression model for the purpose of model comparison. Model comparison results show that the time-dependent model performs better than the standard model because the former can provide higher prediction accuracy. The time-dependent model results show that seven factors exhibit time-varying effects on the drivers’ merging behavior, including merging vehicle speed, through lane lead vehicle speed and through lane lag vehicle speed, longitudinal gap between the merging and lead vehicles, longitudinal gap between the merging and through lane lead vehicles, types of through lane lead and through lane lag vehicles. Interestingly, both the through lane lead vehicle speed and the through lane lag vehicle speed are found to exhibit heterogeneous effects at different times of the merging implementation period. One important finding from this study is that the merging vehicle has a decreasing willingness to take the choice of “complete a merging maneuver” as the elapsed time increases if the through lane lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle.     

非创性检查指标与肺动脉高压的回归分析

通过多元逐步回归分析发现,空间隔缺损大小(X_2)、动脉血氧分压(X_3)、V_?/V_?(X_7)与肺动脉收缩压(Y_1)、肺动脉舒张压(Y_2)、肺动脉平均压(Y_3)之间关系密切,而被列入回归方程。其方程分别为Y_1=13.24+0.22X_2—0.70X_3+0.14X_7;Y_2=0.65+0.24X_2+0.12X_7;Y_3=3.54+0.17X_2+0.16X_7。而病和、∑_9导联QRS振幅、右_实/右_标和左_实/左_标是次要因素,未列入回归方程。上述方程的产生,有可能避免轻、中度肺动脉高压患者心导管有创性检查,并减少相应的并发症。