Competing risks analysis on traffic accident duration time

Different clearance methods in traffic accident management lead to varied duration distributions. Apart from investigating the influence of various factors associated with accidents on the duration of such accidents using different clearance methods, this study also examines the cumulative incidence probability. We used traffic accident data obtained for 12 months from the Fourth Ring Expressway main line in Beijing to develop a subdistribution hazard regression model, which can assess the risk factors of two clearance methods. The regression results show that the different factors have statistically significant effects on the duration of two accident groups with different clearance methods; furthermore, opposite effects occur even for some factors that have a strong effect on both accident groups. For example, an accident involving a taxi extends the duration time with clearance method 1; in comparison, the accident is shorter with clearance method 2. The predicted cumulative incidence curves of the two types of clearance methods are shown as examples, with stratification based on the influence factors (taxi involved, season). Finally, the Gray test of the cumulative incidence functions and the log‐rank test of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of the survival functions are compared, in order to demonstrate the importance of using proper methods for analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of distress condition index of asphalt pavements using LTPP data through structural equation modeling

Traditional pavement distress index such as the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers determines coefficients of distresses based on subjective ratings. This study proposed an asphalt pavement distress condition index based on various types of distress data collected from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The SEM method treated the overall distress index as a latent variable while various distresses were treated as endogenous and other influence factors such as age, layer thickness, material type, weather, environment and traffic, were exogenous observed variables. The SEM method modeled the contributions of various distresses as well as the influence of other factors on the overall pavement distress condition. Influences of age, layer thickness, material type, environment and traffic on the latent distress condition were in accordance with previous studies. Compared with previous attempts to model latent pavement condition index utilizing SEM method, more pavement condition measurements and influencing factors were included. Specifically, this study adopted the robust maximum likelihood estimator (MLR) to estimate parameters for non-normally distributed data and derived the explicit expression of latent variables with intercepts. A multiple regression prediction model was built to calculate an overall condition index utilizing those measured distress data. The established pavement distress index prediction model provided a rational estimation of weighting coefficients for each distress type. The prediction model showed that alligator cracking, longitudinal cracking in wheel path, non-wheel path longitudinal cracking, transverse cracking, block cracking, edge cracking, patch and bleeding were significant for the latent pavement distress index.     

电动汽车滑行制动能量回收过程驾驶性综合评价方法研究

电动汽车滑行制动能量回收过程的驾驶性是车辆纵向动力学瞬态品质的定性描述,为定量评价能量回收制动的驾驶性,对滑行制动过程中的减速特性进行分析,提取了最大减速度、减速滑行距离、最大减速度变化率、减速度变化率稳态占比4个客观指标,并通过相关性分析验证主观评价与客观参数的一致性。基于客观评价指标,利用非线性回归方法建立了主观评价预测模型。通过7台新能源车型共计18种能量回收模式下的综合评价,验证了评价体系的有效性和实用性。结果表明,基于主客观综合分析建立的评价体系能把主观感受和客观数据有机结合,实现驾驶性的量化评价。     

利用流域影响因子推算山坡坡度的研究

用模糊聚类分析方法将流域样本分为两类,然后用回归分析理论分别对各类样本进行分析,建立起山坡平均坡度与流域影响因子之间的回归方程。把所得结果用于现有桥梁的水文验算中,可以节约验算者的大量时间,而且按此结果计算出的洪峰流量与按传统方法计算的洪峰流量接近且偏于安全。     

三体船阻力回归分析及预报方法研究

基于三体船船模系列阻力试验结果,以非均匀B样条拟合船模阻力试验数据随航速变化关系曲线,采用模长界限控制的Gram-Schmidt正交化方法建立给定排水量和航速三体船阻力与侧体位置关系的回归模型,该方法能够快速而有效地获取有效范围内任意给定航速下三体船阻力随侧体位置的变化关系,具有一定的理论意义和较高的工程实用价值.     

大型运输船舶快速性能回归分析研究

基于450条大型运输船舶的船型子样及其快速性能试验数据,应用多元统计回归分析方法,分段研究了大型运输船舶的阻力系数与自航因子的快速估算策略。通过不同船型自变量方案组合的对比分析,得出了影响大型运输船舶快速性的主要船型参数,进而得出了两套阻力系数与自航因子的统计回归表达式,并通过实例验证其正确性。研究成果可用于大型运输船舶的航速快速预报,也为大型运输船舶的快速性能优化指明了方向。     

天津地区吹填土真空预压压缩率预测及回归分析

针对吹填土地基竖向变形压缩率难以准确预估的问题,依托大量天津地区大面积围海造陆地基处理工程,计算吹填及真空预压地基处理沉降监测数据,求得相应的吹填土压缩率。将此数据与原位土的体积加权平均分级及物理力学参数指标进行多元回归分析,得出了根据原位土疏浚土级及4个主要关联物理力学参数预测吹填土压缩率的数学模型公式,有效预测了天津地区吹填土真空预压的体积压缩率。     

铁路货运量组合预测方法

为了对铁路货运量进行科学预测,在指数平滑、模糊移动、线性回归、灰色预测4种单一模型的基础上建立组合预测模型。结果表明：组合预测模型能有效综合各模型的有用信息,并能提高其预测精度,预测结果可靠。与单一模型相比,该法具有较好的实用价值。     

基于CFD方法求取供应船位置水动力导数回归公式

以动力定位船为研究对象,通过船型变换生成供应船的系列船型。基于CFD数值模拟约束模平面运动机构（PMM）试验中的斜拖试验,得到系列船型在不同漂角时所受的横向力和转艏力矩,经最小二乘法拟合求得各船型的位置水动力导数。在此基础上,通过多元回归,得到位置水动力导数关于船型参数的回归公式,以为设计阶段动力定位船位置水动力导数的确定提供简便的方法。     

线性回归方程在高桩码头变形监测中的应用

由于高桩码头浚深改造直接关系到码头安全,因此,施工中对码头变形进行高精度监测显得尤为重要。通过对高桩码头变形监测多年经验的分析,总结出利用线性回归方程提高高桩码头变形监测精度的方法,可供高桩码头浚深改造监测工作参考。