基于新信息回归分析对隧道变形检测的探讨

回归分析在隧道等变形监测中,具有重要作用。但单一的数学模型无法较好地预测实际变形,而分段回归仍有缺陷,遂提出基于相等个数新信息的回归分析,并给出算例,得到较为合理的结论。     

Analyzing the impact of a planned transit-oriented development on mode share and traffic conditions

ABSTRACT

Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular planning strategy used to maximize accessibility to transit for various trip purposes. The quantitative effects of TOD on travel mode shift and traffic congestion have not been extensively tested in the current literature. This paper utilizes a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) mode share model and a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model to analyze the impact of a planned TOD in Maryland. The proposed model aims at improving the understanding of the quantitative impacts of such a TOD on mode share and traffic congestion. The main result of the mode share model indicates that the increase in transit ridership for a transit accessible shopping center is not that significant. Local traffic conditions will deteriorate due to a lack of investment in road infrastructure planned for the TOD area. The proposed method could be a valuable tool for other indicative land development or transportation policy analyses.     

Hybrid artificial neural network and locally weighted regression models for lane-based short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

ABSTRACT

In recent years, there has been considerable research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting. However, forecasting models offering a high accuracy at a fine temporal resolution (e.g. 1 or 5?min) and lane level are still rare. In this study, a combination of genetic algorithm, neural network and locally weighted regression is used to achieve optimal prediction under various input and traffic settings. The genetically optimized artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and locally weighted regression (GA-LWR) models are developed and tested, with the former forecasting traffic flow every 5-min within a 30-min period and the latter for forecasting traffic flow of a particular 5-min period of each for four lanes of an urban arterial road in Beijing, China. In particular, for morning peak and off-peak traffic flow prediction, the GA-ANN 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 3–5% and most 95th percentile errors of 7–14% for each of the four lanes; for the peak and off-peak time traffic flow predictions, the GA-LWR 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 2–4% and most 95th percentile errors are lower than 10% for each of the four lanes. When compared to previous models that usually offer average errors greater than 6–15%, such empirical findings should be of interest to and instrumental for transportation authorities to incorporate in their city- or state-wide Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS).     

Inland waterways—their role and significance in European transport

Summary

1) Western Europe has a navigable waterways‐network of about 19,000 kms. For the coming decades, however, about 40 percent of the length of these waterways has a very limited relevance, because of the small capacity of the barges that can pass along them.

2) Of the different types of barges the majority are the self‐propelled type. The importance of the pull‐towed barges is declining quickly, whereas the push‐towed barges are on the upswing.

3) The relative importance of inland shipping in comparison with rail transport is far from uniform. In The Netherlands inland shipping is dominant. On the other hand, in France, this mode of transport has only 30 percent of the total number of tons transported by inland shipping and railways together.

4) May the relative importance defer, there is a strong resemblance between the types of goods that are transported via the waterways with crude and manufactured minerals as well as building materials ranking high. In general, inland shipping is primarily involved in the transport of basic products and is of vital importance to the functioning of the West‐European economy.

5) The rather complicated legal regime of the waterways in Western Europe is certainly not the only reason why the integration in the transportation sector of the European Communities hardly moves on.

A fundamental discussion about the basic conceptions of the transport policy in the Common Market is unavoidable before real progress can be made. The entrance of the United Kingdom into the European Community may give an opening on this point.

6) Life goes on, with or without transport‐integration. Inland shipping moves forward too, paying for the use of infrastructure or not.

The general trends in transport support the expectation that the relative importance of inland shipping will increase in the coming decades. The increase in size of shipments and transport distances works in favour of this mode of transport. Besides this, inland shipping still has many possibilities to improve its productivity.

7) The future of inland shipping will be found in bulk transport and the transport of general cargo that has a volume per destination that goes far beyond the quantities for which the container or comparable types of transport units are better suited.     

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes.

In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.

     

Transferability of standardized regres Person-based approach sion model applied to person-based trip generation

In this paper, the transferability of person-based standardized regression models is analysed using two large-scale origin-destination household surveys with data collected in two Brazilian cities, Sa~o Paulo and Bauru. The models are specified in terms of dummy variables linked to socio-economic attributes which are considered relevant. A model, having home-based daily trips as a dependent variable, is calibrated according to data from the Sa~o Paulo Metropolitan Area and transferred to Bauru, and vice-versa. The transferability of the models is evaluated using the Wald test, which is an objective test applicable to two samples presenting different variances. According to the test, only standardized regression models are transferable. In addition, the performance of the models to estimate the number of trips generated in every zone of the urban areas is verified. The results indicate that the performance of standardized regression models is equivalent to the locally calibrated model.     

Ship safety index

This paper develops a new quantitative safety index for each worldwide sea-going vessel based on their condition information and safety records. The safety index can generate a relative risk score using binary logistic regression method and a dataset with both static and dynamic information covering over 90% of the world sea-going merchant fleet. It has a widely potential usage for both industry and academic research, e.g., for port authorities to determine whether an on board inspection is needed; for insurers to determine premium rate; and for shipowners to identify functional areas for repair and maintenance.     

A demand trend change early warning forecast model for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system

The need of accurate forecasts of air passenger numbers to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms is well recognized and a central problem on both short and long term forecasting is how to handle future trend. The aim of this paper is to develop a demand trend change early warning forecast model (EWFM) for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system (SPMARs). For SPMARs the EWFM is based on the combination of leading indicators and alarms against possible occurrence of changes on trend component of the monthly number of domestic air passengers. A topdown induction procedure is employed to identify leading indicators to provide an interpretable prediction procedure to support the development of scenarios for future demand trend. Results show that changes on such demand trend are mostly associated to changes on the economic activity and six different scenarios were built combining the identified leading indicators. The EWFM was employed to assist managerial decision making for both short and long terms in order to evaluate different alternatives to prevent congestion delay occurrences and to support infrastructure planning.     

中国男性血沉参考值与地理因素的关系

目的　为制定中国男性血沉参考值的统一标准提供科学依据。方法　收集了中国 976个单位用温氏法测定的 785 60例健康成年男性血沉参考值 ,运用相关分析和回归分析的方法 ,研究了其与地理因素的关系。结果　发现海拔高度是影响男性血沉参考值最主要因素 ,随着海拔高度的逐渐增大 ,男性血沉参考值逐渐减小 ,呈显著负相关关系 (r1 =- 0 .61 0 )。用逐步回归分析的方法建立回归方程 ^Y =1 3.32 - 0 .0 0 2 39x1 + 0 .0 4 99X4± 6 79。结论　如果已知中国某地的地理因素 ,则可用回归方程估算这个地区的男性血沉参考值。     

水火弯板线变形和工艺参数关系数学建模研究

采用数值模拟技术获得帆形船体板纵向收缩成形的工艺参数与变形关系的数据,用统计回归方法进行了变形预测的建模和预报,对实际的船体板进行工艺参数计算并且和船厂相应的软件系统的结果进行对比,结果表明本文的回归模型生成的总体加热信息与船厂的计算结果的误差在误差允许范围内,本文回归模型提供的工艺参数是可行的。