某排水工程施工方案优选中的价值工程应用

本文首先简要阐述了价值工程的基本工作原理 ,其次从工程实践出发 ,应用价值工程对某排水工程施工方案进行优选 ,合理降低造价、缩短工期。     

基于三叉树期权理论的铁路货运定价模型

将期权理论引入铁路货运定价活动,构建基于运输企业和期权客户期望最大 化的多期三叉树定价模型,分析铁路运输企业的最优定价决策及期权客户的最优购买决 策.研究结果表明：最优期权订购量是关于期权执行价格和期权价格的严格单调递减函 数,而期权执行价格与现货市场运价、短期准备成本、无风险利率正相关,与长期准备成 本负相关.通过算例的敏感性分析,发现当期权执行价格升高幅度超过10%时,期权客户 的期权购买量下降梯度迅速增加,相比于期权价格,期权执行价格对期权客户的期权执 行量具有更强的敏感性,因此铁路运输企业应关注期权执行价格的制定.     

LNG系统在客车上的应用

介绍车载LNG系统的特点、工作原理及其在客车上的4种布置方案。     

主客观综合评价法在内河航道选汊中的应用

内河航道建设中在分汊河段面临汊道选择问题,尤其是大型内河航道建设因投资巨大且对河段航道格局有长期影响,选汊涉及的因素繁多且无法直接比较。以长江南京以下12.5 m深水航道福姜沙河段的选汊问题为例,在对不同选汊方案的港口适应性、通航组织风险、航行干扰、施工期运营期风险、航道服务水平、锚地便利性、投资及航道维护等方面分析的基础上,采用主客观综合评价法(CRITIC),建立多目标决策评价模型。根据模型计算结果对选汊方案优劣排序,并进行稳定性检验,得出福中+福北方案为最优选汊方案。     

Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships

This paper investigates the feasibility of and develops an economic valuation model for strategic options in Comprehensive Development Agreements (CDAs). A CDA is a form of public–private partnership whereby the right to price and collect revenues from toll roads is leased to a private entity for a long but finite period of time. In exchange, this provides local and state governments with a quick influx of cash and/or additional infrastructure. Uncertainty associated with such long-term leases is of substantial public concern. This paper examines five different strategic options, namely a buyout option, a conditional buyout option, a revenue-sharing option, and two types of minimum revenue guarantee options. The buyout option in particular could give the public sector additional control over the future use of leased facilities and address potential concerns regarding long-run uncertainty and possible unforeseen windfalls for the private sector. The paper’s contributions include the analysis, feasibility assessment and valuation of several strategic options, sensitivity analysis of the solutions, an economic consumer demand-based revenue model for purposes of cash flow simulation, and analysis of option price sensitivity to “moneyness”. The main conclusion is that strategic options can provide useful risk reduction, but generally have significant value relative to the lease itself. By scaling down payoffs, options could be realistically included in CDAs and other PPPs. For some parameter values, option values to the developer and public authority are offsetting, allowing for costless risk reduction.     

股票期权对经理人激励效应及其问题研究

本结合企业外部经济环境变化，探讨股票期权对经理人的激励效应及其问题。论首先从股票期权是对经理人的一种长期激励报酬角度，分析了股票期权对经理人的激励效应；然后，深入分析了股票期权对经理人激励中存在的几个主要问题；最后，针对这些问题，论联系我国实际，研究并提出了问题解决的思路。     

企业经营决策中的期权定价方法

在市场经济环境下，企业在进行经营决策时常常会困惑于一些暂时尚不明确的灵活性因素，而无视这些灵活性，简单地做出“刚性”的决策，往往会丧失商机．针对企业决策中的灵活性，运用看涨期权的思想，将企业的一项经营决策理解为若干实物期权的组合，引入Black—Scholes模型进行定价分析，并与固定资产估价的常规方法相结合。给出一种对固定资产估价的新方法，为企业的经营决策提供理论依据．     

浅埋大断面黄土隧道下穿既有铁路施工技术

在高桥隧道出口下穿南同蒲既有铁路施工中,根据黄土的特性对施工方案进行了优化,将设计的在总长100 m、φ159大管棚超前支护条件下采用双层支护形式的(外层为喷混凝土,内层为模筑混凝土)双侧壁导洞开挖法优化为双层支护形式的(两层均为喷混凝土)弧形导洞三台阶七步开挖法,并通过仰拱和二次衬砌紧跟的方法,开创性地解决了在大断面黄土隧道下穿构筑物施工中安全和进度的矛盾,有效地控制了洞内、外沉降变形,保证了下穿段隧道的安全快速施工和既有铁路的安全运营,并降低了工程造价,丰富了黄土隧道设计施工的理念。     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

美式看跌期权的最佳执行价格

利用快速傅里叶变换法加龙格-库塔法对期权的最佳执行价格进行了分析和计算,最后通过数值算例说明了这一方法的有效性和准确性.