Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

基于扩展卡尔曼滤波的GPS信号跟踪技术

提出一种基于扩展卡尔曼滤波的GPS信号跟踪方法,通过扩展卡尔曼滤波器,得到基于相干积分支路的滤波模型,有效地削弱常规GPS跟踪环路中的跟踪误差,增强接收机的抗干扰性能,提升其在信号较弱位置下环路的跟踪性能,对加入惯性信息条件下惯性信息对系统所产生的影响做了相应的分析研究。通过仿真对比结果可以知道:当处于弱信号条件时,与通常用到的GPS信号跟踪方式相比,基于扩展卡尔曼滤波的信号跟踪算法可以有效提升跟踪的精度。     

基于粗糙-模糊软计算的船板线加热成形加工参数预报方法

提出一种基于粗糙-模糊软计算的建模方法,构造一种基于贴近方向修正的高精度模糊推理算法,通过有限元分析(FEA)建立板材线加热成形工艺信息系统,根据粗糙集软计算获取线加热成形的工艺规律,运用模糊推理实现加工参数的快速准确预报。粗糙-模糊建模适用于线加热成形过程的静态或动态模型的构建,为实现该工艺的智能建模与控制提供一种新的技术手段。     

Shaping the Coast with Permits: Making the State Regulatory Permitting Process Transparent with Text Mining

This paper examines the California Coastal Commission's permitting process. Using several text mining techniques, including web scraping, information extraction, and supervised classification, I demonstrate how to retrieve empirical data from unstructured texts, namely public meeting agendas and staff reports. Contrary to the concern that the Commission routinely delays or rejects permitting requests, the data reveal that outright rejection of permit applications is rare. On average, eight of ten applications were approved. Single-family homes and commercial development projects were approved about 80% of the time; the rates were about 70% for seawalls and retaining walls, and 60% for land-use changes. Most applications were processed swiftly, with a median application length of 3 months. The agency's influence comes primarily from negotiating each application. Qualitative study of 50 cases pertaining to single-family home construction reveals that the agency adopts a “managed development” approach, that is, allowing development but scrupulously managing various aspects of development. These case studies illustrate how the agency interprets the broad, abstract state laws and translates the mandates into enforceable actions as permitting conditions. In areas where the state mandates conflict, particularly over development in receding shorelines, the agency has the largest leverage in creating and implementing its preferred policies. The text mining techniques demonstrated in this paper can be applied to study any governmental agency. These techniques help to extract information from a massive volume of papers and organize them into a database for analyses. The empirical data extracted from texts can significantly increase bureaucratic transparency.     

长江口深水航道疏浚吹填一体化施工工艺

针对长江口地区近年来出现的新圈围造地工程,因条件限制或成本控制不宜设置储泥坑的情况,通过长兴潜堤工程实例,介绍长江口深水航道疏浚吹填一体化施工工艺,对工艺中的疏浚施工、艏吹抛锚定位以及吹泥施工等关键技术进行重点阐述。该工艺无需设置中转储泥坑,疏浚土一次性吹填上岸,并用于造地成陆,在长江口地区应用效果较好。     

LNG接收站再冷凝器工艺控制分析

针对目前某LNG接收站采用的再冷凝工艺,在简要介绍再冷凝器结构和工艺的基础上,从温压补偿,比率计算,流量、压力及液位控制方面入手,对再冷凝器串级控制模式下的工艺控制原理进行详细地阐述和分析。该分析是基于某LNG接收站近4年的平稳运营经验形成,对新建LNG接收站再冷凝器的投用和平稳操作具有一定的参考价值。     

Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

聚脲涂料喷涂设备及工艺

近年来,出现了一种新型的管道防腐大修涂料——聚脲涂料,该涂料性能优异,但对设备和操作条件要求较高。文中探讨了管道防腐大修用聚脲涂料对喷涂设备和喷涂工艺的专业化要求。通过对喷涂设备的各个部件性能和作用的研究,得到了一套喷涂设备连接、操作以及维护保养的方法。文中对喷涂工艺进行了研究,确定了喷涂工艺的喷涂温度和喷涂压力等参数。     

预应力锚索桩板式挡墙肋桩施工工艺

文章以云南省红河州个屯一级公路某桥梁预应力锚索桩板式挡墙施工为例,在计算分析挡墙稳定性的基础上,阐述了预应力锚索桩板式挡墙肋桩施工的工艺流程及要点,并提出了相应的挡墙肋桩施工验收及监管措施。     

FPSO改装项目内部转塔系统及安装工艺

简单介绍浮式生产储油装置(Floating Production Storage and Offloading,FPSO)改装项目,较详细地阐述该FPSO改装项目上的内部转塔系统及其安装工艺,以此对未来这一领域的发展提供安装工艺方面的指导和说明。