Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

Shaping the Coast with Permits: Making the State Regulatory Permitting Process Transparent with Text Mining

This paper examines the California Coastal Commission's permitting process. Using several text mining techniques, including web scraping, information extraction, and supervised classification, I demonstrate how to retrieve empirical data from unstructured texts, namely public meeting agendas and staff reports. Contrary to the concern that the Commission routinely delays or rejects permitting requests, the data reveal that outright rejection of permit applications is rare. On average, eight of ten applications were approved. Single-family homes and commercial development projects were approved about 80% of the time; the rates were about 70% for seawalls and retaining walls, and 60% for land-use changes. Most applications were processed swiftly, with a median application length of 3 months. The agency's influence comes primarily from negotiating each application. Qualitative study of 50 cases pertaining to single-family home construction reveals that the agency adopts a “managed development” approach, that is, allowing development but scrupulously managing various aspects of development. These case studies illustrate how the agency interprets the broad, abstract state laws and translates the mandates into enforceable actions as permitting conditions. In areas where the state mandates conflict, particularly over development in receding shorelines, the agency has the largest leverage in creating and implementing its preferred policies. The text mining techniques demonstrated in this paper can be applied to study any governmental agency. These techniques help to extract information from a massive volume of papers and organize them into a database for analyses. The empirical data extracted from texts can significantly increase bureaucratic transparency.     

长江口南汇边滩短期冲淤变化分析

南汇边滩位于长江口和杭州湾的交汇地带,受长江口和杭州湾北岸两股潮流的控制,近年来由于低潮滩促淤围垦工程导致其水流和泥沙运移、沉积和地貌发生了显著的变化。根据2006—2008年南汇边滩测图及2007年11月—2008年11月每个季度的9个断面测量资料,结合区域内的泥沙沉积特征,探讨南汇边滩对周边涉水围垦工程和流域来水来沙变异做出适应性地貌耦合过程之后的近期冲淤演变规律,着重探讨季节性冲淤特征。结果表明:年度上南汇东滩以淤长为主,南汇南滩以冲刷为主。不同季节南汇边滩冲淤变化过程存在很大差异:平面上,南汇边滩等深线夏、冬季以淤进为主,春、秋季以蚀退为主;垂向上,南汇东滩断面呈春夏秋冲淤交替、冬季淤积的态势,南汇嘴断面呈秋季冲刷、冬夏季淤积的态势,而位于南汇南滩的断面则呈秋冬季冲刷、春夏季淤积态势。南汇东滩沉积物粒径总体上较细,东滩与南滩交汇处的南汇嘴附近中值粒径相对较粗,南汇南滩浅滩沉积物颗粒中值粒径最粗。     

西津水利枢纽二线船闸下引航道布置方案对比

西津水利枢纽二线船闸工程对发展西江航运和流域经济具有重要作用。为研究二线船闸布置方案与原一线船闸布置的相互影响,采用水工模型试验研究二线船闸下引航道两类不同布置方案下的水流条件,通过分别测定一、二线船闸下引航道口门区纵、横向及回流流速三项指标,并进行对比分析得知:一、二线船闸下引航道口门区采用共用布置方案时,在中洪水流量情况下,口门区内横向及回流流速难以满足规范要求;当采用下引航道口门区分开布置形式时,二线船闸下引航道口门区多项流速在各级通航流量下基本满足规范要求。     

葛洲坝1号船闸增设防撞安全设施的探讨

葛洲坝1号船闸由于与三峡船闸匹配运行,船舶实行导航墙待闸,下行船舶在导航墙停靠时距离人字门较近,而且下行船舶首船进闸后停靠位置与下闸首人字门距离较近,都具有碰撞人字门的风险。针对葛洲坝1号船闸人字门存在被碰撞的风险,结合上、下闸首的现场情况分别就上、下闸首人字门增设防撞设施方案的可能性进行分析,提出提升式、侧开式和下沉式等方案,并讨论各方案实现的可能性、优势及不足,为船闸人字门防撞安全设施的方案设计及应用提供参考。     

基于粗糙-模糊软计算的船板线加热成形加工参数预报方法

提出一种基于粗糙-模糊软计算的建模方法,构造一种基于贴近方向修正的高精度模糊推理算法,通过有限元分析(FEA)建立板材线加热成形工艺信息系统,根据粗糙集软计算获取线加热成形的工艺规律,运用模糊推理实现加工参数的快速准确预报。粗糙-模糊建模适用于线加热成形过程的静态或动态模型的构建,为实现该工艺的智能建模与控制提供一种新的技术手段。     

柴油机排气污染物PM和NOx催化处理反应平台设计与应用

使用自行设计的程序温控的催化反应平台和模拟配气系统相连接,测试并获得催化剂的催化还原NOx和催化氧化PM的准确的催化性能数据.使用该催化反应平台和常柴CZ2102型柴油机实验平台相连接,获得在稀燃条件下介孔镧铈锆铝复合氧化物对PM和NOx的催化处理实验的应用数据.为同时去除柴油机排气污染物PM颗粒和NOx的工程应用打下坚实的基础.     

涪江过军渡电航枢纽工程总体布置研究

根据过军渡电航枢纽工程水工模型试验,论述了上下游引航道口门区泥沙淤积与通航水流条件的变化,研究了船闸引航道的平面布置及不同通航流量情况下设计船队在船闸上下游引航道口门区及连接段的航行情况和航行要素,优化进出闸航线,并配合通航水流条件的观测对船闸引航道平面布置提出修改意见,从而选出通航条件好、工程量小、河道演变较稳定的推荐方案。     

AHP在公路主枢纽站场 总体布局规划中的应用*

为使我国公路网“三主一支持”的规划建设建立在易操作,可定量化的基础上,利用简便 实用的层次分析法建立了公路主枢纽站场总体布局方案比选模型,进而对定量、定性判断矩阵分 别提出了相应的分析构成方法,并给出了比选模型的计算过程及应用实例。经实践证明,该方法 是可行的。      

SMA-5在京秦高速廊坊段罩面工程中的应用

有关SMA-5沥青混合料配合比设计及各项路用性能试验的研究表明,现行的SMA沥青混合料设计方法用于SMA-5设计是可行的。且具有良好的路用性能和表面功能,可作为沥青路面预防性养护的超薄罩面层。