Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

光面爆破技术在城市地铁隧道施工中的应用

文章从光面爆破机理、光面爆破技术中各主要参数的确定,以及光面爆破在实际工程中的应用几个方面出发,以深圳地铁安-侨区间隧道硬岩段施工为例,研究分析了如何利用光面爆破技术来提高城市地铁浅埋暗挖法的光爆效果,特别是近距离穿越重要建(构)筑物时如何有效进行光面爆破。     

Comparative analysis of household car,motorcycle and bicycle ownership between Osaka metropolitan area,Japan and Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia

The interactions among different types of vehicle ownership including car, motorcycle and bicycle are examined by developing simultaneous vehicle ownership models in this study. Large scale person trip survey data for Osaka metropolitan area, Japan and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are used for empirical analysis. The results suggest that population density at residential area significantly and negatively affects car ownership for both areas, and that the effects are larger for Osaka metropolitan area than for Kuala Lumpur. Also, bicycle ownership becomes higher at higher population density area for Osaka area, while higher at lower population density area for Kuala Lumpur, which represents the different usage patterns of bicycle between the two areas.

风积沙的工程力学性质试验研究

结合毛乌素沙漠沙样,对风积沙的工程力学性质进行了系统的试验研究。试验结果表明:风积沙的压实可采用常规的击实试验方法和振动密实法,压实效果受颗粒级配、含水量、荷载大小、振动频率及振幅等多种因素影响;风积沙的内摩擦角与压实度之间呈线性变化规律,颗粒级配是主要影响因素,含水量影响较小;风积沙的室内回弹模量和加州承载比与压实度之间大致呈非线性增大规律,在某一压实度区间增大的幅度非常小。     

一种改进的Jakes’信道模型及仿真

由于无线通信环境中存在的诸多不确定因素以及其在现代无线通信系统中的重要作用，合理的无线信道成为通信系统仿真研究的重要目的。确立信道仿真模型的目的就是为了尽可能的得到实际信道的统计特性，该文针对Jakes提出的信道模型，通过仿真来分析其局限性，并参考其中的谐波叠加（sum of sinusoids，SOS）法，来建立一种采用了随机分支增益、随机初始相位和有条件的随机多普勒频率改进的信道模型。     

公路平面信号交叉口左转车道长度设计

平面交叉口作为道路系统的一个重要组成部分,其服务水平的好坏对整个道路系统的安全和效率有着重要的影响。因为来自不同方向的车流在此处合流、分流和交叉,其中频繁的左转车辆阻碍直行车流的行驶,降低了交叉口的通行能力,增加了交叉口的延误,并增大交通事故率。如果合理设置左转车道能够有效地将左转车辆从直行车流中分离出来,减小车流速度方差,并降低追尾事故的发生;而左转车道,长度的设计是设置左转车道的关键元素,本文主要是针对信号交叉口选取适当的设计指标建立模型,并通过TSIS软件进行仿真分析,得出专用左转相位下的左转车道排队长度,进而计算出左转车道的设计长度。     

大粒径沥青混合料基层施工压实控制研究

结合沪蓉西高速公路宜长试验段采用大粒径沥青混合料(LSAM)作为柔性基层的实例,采用核子密度仪进行施工压实度跟踪检测。检测结果表明:胶轮压路机对LSAM压实度的提高作用不明显;LSAM-30一次性铺筑13.5cm仍能保证其具有较好的压实性能;核子密度仪测得LSAM压实度有较高水平且有减小趋势时,应立即停止碾压。另外,对LSAM压实度"超百"现象进行了研究,指出对于LSAM基于旋转压实仪的标准密度能更好地指导现场施工。     

一种新概率密度函数的提炼及在公路中的应用

利用汕梅高速公路混凝土路面标的施工试验数据,提炼出了一种新的非正态概率密度函数,并对施工结果进行了检验,得出了可靠的结果。     

基于ADAMS／Car Ride车辆平顺性仿真研究

以虚拟样机技术进行车辆平顺性仿真研究．建立了基于ADAMS／Car Ride的多体动理学模型，通过虚拟四柱试验台对模型进行仿真试验。仿真结果表明，ADAMS／Car Ride可方便地进行路面功率谱密度响应仿真试验，所建立的包含虚拟四柱试验台的整车模型可深入进行车辆平顺性研究。