基于灰色二次指数平滑的QAR参数关联度预测

由于QAR参数波动的后果具有潜在性和滞后性,因此分析人员容易忽视其危险性而使其发展为不利事件。针对该问题,提出运用QAR参数关联度分析的方法,建立QAR参数波动与事件之间的对应关系;并构建基于二次指数平滑-灰色关联法的关联度预测模型,进一步明确QAR参数波动与事件之间关系的动态变化趋势。运用实际数据对该模型进行验证,表明结论符合实际,该模型科学合理,可以用于QAR参数分析过程。     

基于客户满意度的货运动车组开行方案研究

高铁货运逐渐兴起,本文对货运动车组开行方案优化进行了研究。针对高铁运输安全、快捷、运输成本较低等特性,提出以货运动车组及客货混编动车组为主,客运动车组捎带运输为补充的开行模式,结合运输需求、线路通过能力等限条件,以运输成本最小和货主满意度最大为目标,建立多目标综合优化模型,运用线性加权组合法,以lingo软件为依托进行求解。通过算例给出具体开行方案,并对同一运输区间各种运输方式的单位成本及用时进行对比分析。结果表明,相对于传统运输方式,高铁货运综合运输成本较低,用时更短,能够兼顾运输企业与货主的双重要求;所建模型优化效果明显,可为未来货运动车组的开行提供参考。     

港口集装箱物流园区规模的研究

在提出港口物流园区研究现状的前提下,分析了港口集装箱物流园区的作用,对港口集装箱物流园区核心功能区划分进行了深入探讨,最后对港口物流园区规模的测算提出了模型和方法,并附以算例。     

集装箱多式联运系统的协同模型

集装箱多式联运系统是一个由多种运输方式构成,每种运输方式又自成体系的复杂系统。采用系统科学的方法,分析了集装箱多式联运系统的结构和协同学特征,并运用协同学理论,构建了以系统综合运输能力为序参量的国际集装箱多式联运协同发展方程。研究表明,随着控制变量逐渐变化,系统的定常态从稳定点变为不稳定点,系统发生结构变化。     

Fuzzy-logic-based incident detection for signalized diamond interchanges

This paper documents a fuzzy-logic-based incident detection algorithm for signalized urban diamond interchanges. The model is capable of detecting lane-blocking incidents whose effects are manifested by patterns of deterioration in traffic conditions that require adjustments in signal control strategies. As a component of a real-time traffic adaptive control system for signalized diamond interchanges, the algorithm feeds an incident report (i.e., the time, location, and severity of the incident) to the system's optimization manager, which uses that information to determine the appropriate signal control strategy.The performance of the model was studied using a simulation of an actual diamond interchange. The simulation study evaluated the model's performance in terms of detection rate, false alarm rate, and mean time to detect. The model's performance was encouraging, and the fuzzy-logic-based approach is considered promising.     

论公路职工教育与公路文化建设

文章针对公路行业职工教育现状,分析公路职工教育存在的问题及原因,从提高职工综合素质、加强职工＂三种文化＂建设等方面阐述了加强公路职工教育与公路文化建设的对策。     

You (expect to) get what you pay for: A system approach to delay, fare, and complaints

In this paper, an analytical framework integrating delay, fare, and complaints with passenger air travel has been laid out. Examining aggregate monthly data for US domestic air travel, we have identified causal relationships among fare, complaints, and levels of delay. An analytical framework is proposed that formalizes these relationships in an integrated manner. This integrated framework is then estimated in a set of simultaneous equations by using 118 months of data from January 1997 to October 2006. Results show that complaints are influenced by levels of delays. However, complaints are positively influenced by average yield. These findings lead us to support the central hypothesis that complaints are responsive to levels of delays, but they tend to vary according to fare. That is, air travelers are less likely to complain in return for lower fares, even when faced with the same or even higher levels of delays. These findings have important policy implications, including the passengers’ bill of rights and regulator’s choice between market and operational performances.     

Compliance with MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 by ships in the Gulf of Guinea sub-region: Issues,challenges and opportunities

The negative environmental and health impacts association with high sulphur dioxide emissions from shipboard machineries have been raised by various stakeholders within the marine transportation sector. It is against this backdrop that the International Maritime Organisation under the MARPOL Annex VI regulation 14 has capped sulphur emission to 0.1% for Sulphur Emission Control Areas and 0.5% for the other shipping nations. However, ship owners in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region are facing multitudes of challenges in meeting up with this new IMO regulation. This paper aims to identify the main barriers hampering effective compliance to this new regulation by ships operating in the GoG, rank the barriers, and then discuss the possible opportunities that may arise as a result of addressing the challenges. To identify the main barriers, experts with several years of experience in the maritime industry from Ghana and Cameroun were used while multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was employed to rank the barriers. Other methods such as fuzzy AHP (FAHP), rank-order centroid (ROC) and TOPSIS were combined to validate the result of the study. The findings indicate that lack of infrastructure, lack of comprehensive marine air pollution laws and high capital and operational costs of sulphur reduction solutions emerged as the top three ranked barriers. The findings of this study can be useful to ship owners and policy makers in dealing with the issues of marine air pollution.     

A fuzzy stochastic approach to the multicriteria selection of an aircraft for regional chartering

This article deals with the problem of decision support for the selection of an aircraft. This is a problem faced by an airline company that is investing in regional charter flights in Brazil. The company belongs to an economic group whose core business is logistics. The problem has eight alternatives to be evaluated under 11 different criteria, whose measurements can be exact, stochastic, or fuzzy. The technique chosen for analyzing and then finding a solution to the problem is the multicriteria decision aiding method named NAIADE (Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and Decision Environments). The method used allows tackling the problems by working with quantitative as well as qualitative criteria under uncertainty and imprecision. Another considerable advantage of NAIADE over other multicriteria methods relies in its characteristics of not requiring a prior definition of the weights by the decision maker. As a conclusion, it can be said that the use of NAIADE provided for consistent results to that aircraft selection problem. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

旅游交通融合发展研究——以福建省为例

为深入落实"交通强国"战略和实现"全域旅游"目标,推动旅游与交通深度融合发展,需做好旅游交通体系发展的顶层设计。通过分析旅游交通面临的问题,提出了旅游交通融合发展的理念。将福建省作为案例,针对福建旅游交通网络面临的问题,提出了"快旅慢游"旅游交通体系的建设目标、实施方案及保障措施。依托高铁、民航、邮轮和公路等综合立体交通网络,提出了"一带三环多放射"旅游交通"快旅"通道的发展思路;通过特色旅游产品开发、旅游服务质量提升等方面,规划了"慢游"微循环旅游交通的发展方案,构建了福建省多层次、综合立体的旅游交通体系发展新格局。以期通过福建省旅游交通融合发展案例研究,为其他省市旅游交通融合发展借鉴参考。