基于高速铁路常旅客计划的全流程智慧行李服务方案构建

随着"铁路畅行"和"客运提质计划"的提出,提供高质量、个性化的旅客服务成为高速铁路客运发展的关键方向。为打造全新旅客行李服务概念,基于"铁路畅行"会员常旅客计划,构建全流程、门到门智慧行李服务方案,从旅客需求角度出发,采取"人货分离"模式,突破传统站内行李服务的模式,拓宽业务场景,延长商业链,形成一套系统完整的方案。全流程智慧行李服务作为一项新的服务模式,为培育旅客需求,提高顾客粘合度,挖掘高铁行李服务的潜在市场,优化铁路盈利结构,加快构建铁路客运服务体系,提升铁路在运输市场的竞争力提供支持。     

兰新高铁甘青段路基冻胀自动监测及分析研究

为查明兰新高铁甘青段路基冻胀变形原因和影响因素,提出相应的冻胀处理措施,将路基冻胀变形控制在允许范围之内,采用自动监测系统,对路肩以下5 m范围内路基的冻结深度、水分、冻胀变形等进行监测,并对监测结果进行统计分析和深入研究。研究结果表明:路基冻结深度的发展主要受气温的影响,基床表层以下填料含水量随着冻结深度增加缓慢增加;基床表层及基床底层上部1.0 m范围冻胀量占总冻胀量的80%以上;低路堤地段冻胀最严重。为减少路基冻胀量,设计及施工时应采用全冻结深度防冻胀方案,以填料防冻胀为主,辅以防水、疏水和隔热等综合措施;低路堤地段防冻胀措施应适当加强。     

云南省民航客运发展预测

民航运输是云南省在进行综合交通运输建设的重点之一,也是该省在未来"十四五"(2021-2025年)和"十五五"(2026-2030年)规划期间的研究热点。本文以云南省为研究范围,以省内民航客运为研究对象,选取省内主要的社会经济因素为影响因子,运用主成分分析法(PCA)、反向传播神经网络算法(BP神经网络算法)和回归分析法,构建了省内民航客运的预测模型,得出省内各主要机场在"十四五"末和"十五五"末的预计旅客吞吐量,对省政府在进行机场改扩建上有一定的指导意义。     

基于高低的高速铁路简支梁徐变上拱识别方法

研究目的:现有监测手段难以高效经济地测量高速铁路全线简支梁的徐变上拱量,但可以通过分析轨道动态检测数据实现有效识别。因此,本文选取我国某高速铁路长达7年的检测数据,结合小波分解、极值点搜寻和概率分布拟合,对每一跨简支梁的高低波形进行识别,然后通过波形关键点识别简支梁徐变上拱量,并研究其发展规律。研究结论:(1)波形识别算法对24 m梁和32 m梁的识别准确率分别为94.3%和96.4%;(2)简支梁徐变上拱与混凝土徐变的发展规律相近,利用最小二乘法拟合得到了上拱量发展曲线;(3)在线路开通运营6年后,24 m梁上拱量的中位数在1.5~2.0 mm之间,32 m梁上拱量的中位数在2.0~2.6 mm之间,简支梁徐变上拱的发展趋于平缓,未来的发展空间有限;(4)本研究成果对掌握高铁桥梁变形状态和指导线路养护维修具有参考价值。     

重载铁路四线高墩连续梁桥的设计

神瓦(神木—瓦塘)铁路冯家川车站大桥为重载铁路四线桥,主桥采用4线(65+100+65)m连续梁,最大墩高85 m.桥上线间距大,上下部结构横向尺寸较大,利用有限元分析软件BSAS,MIDAS/FEA对结构受力进行了计算分析.结果表明:在主梁梁高相同的情况下,采用单箱三室截面能更好地减小主应力,采用单箱双室截面增加腹板厚度对主应力的改善有限;多线桥桥墩横向尺寸较大,空心截面设置纵肋板能很好地提高高墩的局部稳定性;主梁及桥墩各项计算指标均满足规范要求.     

基于聚类站点客流公共特征的轨道交通车站精细分类

已有城市轨道交通车站分类多基于定性分析，不能满足精细化设计和运营的需要。本文提出一种基于聚类站点公共特征的站点精细分类方法。首先，将来源于AFC(Automatic Fare Collection)的进站客流量数据处理为时间序列数据，并基于K-Means++算法对各个站点的客流量进行聚类；其次，建立客流量聚类结果与土地利用特征多维参数的拟合方程，计算获得居住密集型、工作就业型以及区域中心型等5种大类站点的客流量公共特征。在此基础上，充分考虑属于同一大类站点不同站点的细分特性，使用5类客流量公共特征比重组合精细描述具体站点类型。 实例结果表明，使用本文提出的精细分类方法计算得到的每个站的客流量拟合值与真实客流值间的平均绝对百分比误差控制在14%以内，说明该分类方法具有可行性。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

高速铁路动态定价与票额分配协同优化研究

目前我国高速铁路票价制定还比较缺乏灵活的市场化机制,严重影响铁路运输企业收益和服务水平的提高。基于高速铁路旅客出行规律和收益管理策略,研究高速铁路动态定价与票额分配协同优化方法。在分析旅客出行价格需求弹性的基础上,构建基于Logit模型的客流弹性函数,考虑临近发车客票不涨价和运输能力等约束,建立以期望客票总收入最大化为目标的优化模型,设计一种基于超分方程的分步算法,求解不同时段下不同列车的最优票价与票额分配方案。以京沪高速铁路为例进行计算和分析,与固定费率票价相比,动态票价策略能保证服务水平,系统总客流需求下降0.73%,企业客票总收益提高4.95%。     

Online channel strategies under different offline channel power structures for the Belt and Road of China

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the online channel strategies adopted by Chinese manufacturers with regard to the Belt and Road. It also investigates the effect of offline channel power structures and maritime transportation costs on online channel mode selection and pricing strategies. The offline channel power structures are classified into three types, namely, Chinese manufacturer Stackelberg (MS) structure, vertical Nash (VN) structure, and foreign retailer Stackelberg (RS) structure. Furthermore, a game model is developed among the Chinese manufacturer, foreign retailer, and cross-border e-tailer to investigate the interactions among offline channel power structures, maritime transportation costs, and Chinese manufacturers’ online channel mode selection. The results show that Chinese manufacturers’ preferences for the online agency selling mode increases correspondingly with the decrease in their market position and bargaining power. Moreover, foreign retailers can obtain higher profits in the online agency selling mode under the VN structure. However, the level of profit for foreign retailers depends on the intensity of their competition with cross-border e-tailers under the MS and RS structures. Finally, consumers in countries along the Belt and Road can obtain a higher surplus in the online agency selling mode under all of the structures.     

运营期高速铁路轨道长波不平顺静态测量方法及控制标准

现有高速铁路轨道长波不平顺静态检测主要采用矢距差法或简化矢距差法,存在与检测起点相关、含有里程相位差、基础变形时检测幅值偏大、与车体振动加速度匹配性较差等缺点。利用中点弦测法对轨道长波不平顺进行静态检测,通过对中点弦测法不同测弦长度有效测量波长范围和列车敏感波长分析,采用60 m测弦长度的中点弦测法最适合时速300~350 km运营期高速铁路;利用车辆-轨道动力学仿真分析和最小二乘法拟合相结合方法,提出运营期高速铁路300及350 km·h^-1速度下的轨道长波高低不平顺控制标准,并进行实例验证。结果表明:60 m弦中点弦测法既可保证轨道长波不平顺检测的准确性,又能很好地体现车体振动响应;时速300 km运营期高速铁路轨道长波高低不平顺3级控制标准建议值分别为9,15,21 mm;时速350 km分别为7,11,15 mm。