沿海远距离施工实时水位控制测量方法

针对沿海远距离施工实时水位难以精确测量的问题,结合连云港港30万吨级航道二期工程航道疏浚施工项目,对施工实时水位观测原理、施工船舶吃水动态变化等进行研究,提出一种基于星站差分技术的沿海远距离施工实时水位控制测量方法,并验证了该方法的可靠性.该方法满足现行爯水运工程测量规范爲和施工水位精度要求,且适用于全球任意海域,在沿海远距离施工实时水位控制测量方面具有推广价值.     

巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港集装箱吞吐量预测

为评估新建巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的建设规模,构建由回归分析模型、腹地集装箱运输需求重力模型、多目标港口模糊评价模型和基于Logit模型的港口选择模型4部分组成的综合预测方法。对巴布亚新几内亚科考瑞港的腹地集装箱运输需求进行预测;并对腹地省份在不同港口的集装箱运量进行测算,从而科学合理地预测科考瑞港的集装箱吞吐量,为实施项目的必要性提供支持。该预测方法使用较少的基础数据即可比较科学客观地预测新建港口的集装箱吞吐量,能够较好地解决在不发达国家或地区统计资料缺失、安全局势不稳定导致腹地调研困难等情况下的吞吐量预测问题,为海外港口的建设、咨询项目提供帮助。     

基于客户分类的即时配送路径优化研究

大数据背景下即时配送平台对客户进行精细化管理已成为可能.为寻求企业长期发展，将客户分类融入到车辆路径问题中，用有限的资源提高配送准时性以得到优质客户的维持和发展，为企业赢得更多潜在效益.本文结合客户的消费行为将客户分为多个层级，根据每层级客户的特点设置超时惩罚成本，构建出基于客户分类的即时配送路径优化模型，并根据问题特点设计遗传算法求解，最后，结合某即时配送平台的业务场景进行案例分析，验证了模型和算法的有效性.     

北京驾驶员培训行业需求预测和发展研究

机动车驾驶员的素质能够对城市交通运行产生重大影响,良好的技术水平和高尚道德素质的驾驶员,对于保证城市交通安全运行和人民生命财产的安全至关重要。通过开展驾驶员培训市场需求总量的预测研究,能够有效引导培训市场的合理竞争,提升驾驶员培训行业的高质量发展。本文系统分析了驾驶员培训市场需求预测的方法,以北京驾培市场为实例,基于城市新总规,综合考虑经济社会发展、城市人口变化、城市机动车调控和驾驶证饱和率等多种因素,预测未来培训市场需求情况。根据预测结果和市场培训能力对比,提出了针对行业总量发展的对策建议,也能为国内城市进行驾培需求预测研究和行业发展提供参考。     

Introducing Willingness‐to‐pay for Noise Changes into Transport Appraisal: An Application of Benefit Transfer

Abstract

Numerous research studies have elicited willingness‐to‐pay values for transport‐related noise. However, in many industrialized countries including the UK, noise costs and benefits are still not incorporated into appraisals for most transport projects and policy changes. This paper describes the actions recently taken in the UK to address this issue, comprising: primary research based on the city of Birmingham; an international review of willingness‐to‐pay evidence; the development of values using benefit transfers over time and locations; and integration with appraisal methods. Amongst the main findings are: that the willingness‐to‐pay estimates derived for the UK are broadly comparable with those used in appraisal elsewhere in Europe; that there is a case for a lower threshold at 45 dB(A)Leq,18h rather than the more conventional 55 dB(A); and that values per dB(A) increase with the noise level above this threshold. There are significant issues over the valuation of rail versus road noise, the neglect of non‐residential noise and the valuation of high noise levels in different countries. Conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of noise valuation based on benefit transfers in the UK and elsewhere, and future research needs in this field are discussed.     

Social Media Use during Unplanned Transit Network Disruptions: A Review of Literature

Abstract

This paper explores social media's role in managing unplanned transit networks disruptions. Although literature exists more broadly on the use of social media in transit, this paper presents the first literature review in this setting. When disruptions occur, commuters require reliable, up-to-date information. Its provision reduces anxiety and allows informed choices. Social media is beneficial given it provides real-time information but it can only supplement (not replace) conventional approaches. Information reliability was critical. Research in the field of disaster management illustrates the importance of publicly contributed information. Known as “crowdsourcing”, it is part of the emerging field of crisis informatics which for the first time was linked to unplanned transit disruption management. The results highlight that social media's real-time nature can reduce disrupted travel demand; however, its utilisation can be resource-intensive. A framework presented illustrates how social media utilisation varies according to the operational characteristics of a disrupted network. Social media use as an information delivery tool is still in its infancy and an unwillingness to embrace it is an impediment to sustained growth. Crowdsourcing is one approach that could resolve the issue of transit agency resourcing whilst satisfying the increased demand and expectation for real-time information.     

TSP系统在隧道超前地质预报中的问题及其改善处理

TSP系统作为一项比较成熟的超前地质预报技术,已被广泛应用在隧道施工过程中.文章以地震波反射理论为基础,简要介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的工作原理及相应工作流程,总结了影响TSP预报效果的各种因素;并通过分析大量的TSP实测数据和典型案例,对该方法在数据采集、资料处理和解释等方面容易出现的各种问题进行了综合研究,提出了改善TSP系统超前地质预报可靠性的相应对策和措施,可为隧道超前地质准确预报提供参考.     

HSP超前地质预报技术在隧道工程中的应用

近年来,隧道超前地质预报得到了快速发展,并在隧道施工中发挥了重要作用.目前隧道超前地质预报方法种类很多,但普遍存在预报距离和准确率不能兼顾的问题,并且现场测试较为复杂.针对上述方面的问题,水平声波剖面法(HSP)可通过其测试布置方法和数据处理技术较好的解决.文章简述了HSP原理、测试针对方法及关键技术,并在典型工程应用实例的基础上,总结分析了HSP应用效果和技术特性.     

交叉口配时方案实时优化与仿真系统研究

为了充分利用交叉口的时空资源,缓减拥挤,根据单交叉口的实时检测器数据,基于优化模型和仿真模型,以均衡交叉口的交通压力目标,开发了一款交叉口配时方案实时优化与仿真系统,来对配时方案中的周期、绿信比、相序进行动态优化.实测结果表明,与传统定时信号控制方式相比,优化后的交通信号配时控制效果更好,车辆平均延误时间更少.     

动车组年度高级检修量预测方法

为准确、高效地预测任意时间段内的所有动车组高级检修量,提出了一种动车组年度高级检修量预测方法.以上线动车组的既有运行规律的相关数据为初始值,计算后续高级检修具体日期和统计时间段内的高级检修量,得到上线动车组的高级检修总量.针对尚未投入使用的动车组,从宏观角度建立各个修程年度高级检修量概率计算方法,使用积分统计方法得到统计时间段内未上线动车组的高级检修总量.将2013年实际检修计划和2015年预测计划的总高级检修量进行归一化处理,进行了相关比较与误差计算.计算结果表明:当基准动车组为670组,上线日均走行公里在1000～3000 km,计算周期为180 d时,2015年归一化数据与2013年归一化数据的相对误差为-2.86％,三、四级检修的相对误差分别为-0.23％、9.24％,误差在有效范围之内,方法有效.