以功能为导向的舰船建造质量控制方法

长期以来,由于舰船建造工程浩大、过程复杂、工艺繁多,人们对于建造质量如何影响舰船可靠性缺乏系统性的研究。为实现对考虑建造质量影响的舰船可靠性的科学预测和有效控制,从舰船总体功能的角度出发,在现代造船模式背景下,针对舰船建造提出一种以功能为导向的质量控制（FOQC）方法。融合舰船目标功能、质量参数、建造工艺因素,提出舰船建造可靠性预测模型。建立工艺—质量参数及质量参数—特征功能可靠性模型,对预测模型进行量化计算,获得建造质量对舰船可靠性影响的定性与定量分析,并依据分析结果,对关键质量点与关键工艺环节进行控制与优化。以某舰船轴系安装为实例进行分析,验证了方法的可行性与有效性,可为舰船建造质量的定量化检验与评价提供基础性方法的原理指导。     

基于概率密度演化的斜拉索多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度分析

拉索是斜拉桥的主要受力构件,在车辆、风等交变荷载作用下易发生多级变幅疲劳损伤,而经典可靠度方法预测多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度难度大且计算效率低。针对这一问题,提出一种高效的多级变幅斜拉索时变疲劳可靠度预测方法。基于Miner累积损伤理论,建立同时考虑荷载和材料随机性的变幅疲劳损伤概率演化模型;构建应力幅出现频率指标,解决多级变幅疲劳损伤演化过程中偏微分方程难以确定问题,通过概率密度演化方法精确计算多级变幅时变疲劳可靠度,并采用五级变幅材料试验数据和某桥梁斜拉索的模拟数据验证所提方法的可行性。结果表明：所提方法的计算效率远高于蒙特卡洛方法;在小概率失效时,其计算精度高于蒙特卡洛方法。     

俄罗斯货车轴箱装置的可靠性分析

介绍了俄罗斯有关部门对货车轴箱装置进行的可靠性分析,并对轴箱装置的结构进行了改进.     

A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

川藏铁路工程物资供应保障策略的系统动力学仿真研究

川藏铁路工程建设所需物资运距远、运量大、风险高,物资供应保障需要综合考虑道路和仓储的可靠性问题.分析川藏铁路物资供应的特点及关键影响因素,采用系统动力学方法构建包括物资供应、施工进度、施工技术等3个子系统的物资供应保障模型,对3种组合策略进行了仿真分析.研究结果表明:构建的系统动力学模型可靠有效,路网和物资转运基地相互...     

太阳能游船光伏逆变器控制系统EMC设计

从船舶环境和光伏逆变器的基本原理和功能出发,分别对太阳能游船EMC干扰源和干扰路径进行分析,通过信号滤波与保护、工艺设计和试验测试,实现高可靠性的太阳能游船光伏逆变器控制系统研究和设计,为太阳能游船的光伏逆变器控制系统研究提供基本EMC设计思路与实现技巧。     

深度模拟器液压系统仿真研究

介绍了深度模拟器总体结构及工作原理,针对深度模拟器控制系统中PID算法及其相关参数进行了仿真研究。以深度模拟器液压系统为模型,利用AMESim仿真软件工具,对整个液压系统进行了仿真分析并对系统各元器件的参数进行了优化,为深度模拟器的进一步研究提供了理论基础。     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

Improving train service reliability by applying an effective timetable robustness strategy

ABSTRACT

To avoid propagation of delays in dense railway timetables, it is important to ensure robustness. One strategy to improve robustness is to provide adequate amount of buffer times between trains. This study concerns how “scheduled minimum headways” should be determined in order to improve robustness in timetables. Scheduled minimum headways include technical minimum headway plus some buffer time. We propose a strategy to be implemented in timetables at the final stages of planning and prior to the operations. The main contributions of this study are 1) to propose a strategy where the size of the scheduled minimum headways is dependent on trains' travel times instead of a fixed-sized time slot and it is called “travel time dependent scheduled minimum headways” or TTDSMH, 2) to evaluate the effects of the new strategy on heterogeneity, speed, and the number of trains in timetables, 3) to show that a simple strategy can improve robustness without imposing major changes in timetables. The strategy is implemented in an Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for timetabling and tested for some problem instances from Sweden. Results show that TTDSMH can improve robustness. The proposed strategy can be applied in intelligent transportation tools for railway timetabling.     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.