Improving train service reliability by applying an effective timetable robustness strategy

ABSTRACT

To avoid propagation of delays in dense railway timetables, it is important to ensure robustness. One strategy to improve robustness is to provide adequate amount of buffer times between trains. This study concerns how “scheduled minimum headways” should be determined in order to improve robustness in timetables. Scheduled minimum headways include technical minimum headway plus some buffer time. We propose a strategy to be implemented in timetables at the final stages of planning and prior to the operations. The main contributions of this study are 1) to propose a strategy where the size of the scheduled minimum headways is dependent on trains' travel times instead of a fixed-sized time slot and it is called “travel time dependent scheduled minimum headways” or TTDSMH, 2) to evaluate the effects of the new strategy on heterogeneity, speed, and the number of trains in timetables, 3) to show that a simple strategy can improve robustness without imposing major changes in timetables. The strategy is implemented in an Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for timetabling and tested for some problem instances from Sweden. Results show that TTDSMH can improve robustness. The proposed strategy can be applied in intelligent transportation tools for railway timetabling.     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.     

Vehicle lift-off modelling and a new rollover detection criterion

The modelling and development of a general criterion for the prediction of rollover threshold is the main purpose of this work. Vehicle dynamics models after the wheels lift-off and when the vehicle moves on the two wheels are derived and the governing equations are used to develop the rollover threshold. These models include the properties of the suspension and steering systems. In order to study the stability of motion, the steady-state solutions of the equations of motion are carried out. Based on the stability analyses, a new relation is obtained for the rollover threshold in terms of measurable response parameters. The presented criterion predicts the best time for the prevention of the vehicle rollover by applying a correcting moment. It is shown that the introduced threshold of vehicle rollover is a proper state of vehicle motion that is best for stabilising the vehicle with a low energy requirement.     

双车道公路危险路段评价指标与安全改善对策

选取相邻路段车速差△V、车速降低系数SRC和速度离差作为鉴别双车道公路危险路段的三个评价指标,从道路工程措施和交通安全设施两方面对事故多发路段进行安全改善对策研究。以内蒙古S203公路为例,利用评价指标进行危险路段判析,针对K465＋900急弯陡坡危险路段,通过线形改造以及设置交通标志标线、减速设施、避险车道和防护设施等一系列工程改造措施,进行安全改善综合方案设计。     

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借鉴定性推理中描述参数的相关方法,首先提出了描述城市快速路各车道交通流同态程度的概念——同态度量指数（Homogeneous Measure Index ,HMI),大量对快速路的实证研究得到的HMI指数反应了不同情况下交通流状态的定性差异。通过对北京环路交通拥堵发生与消散过程的观察和分析,本文发现当交通拥堵发生或消散的过程被触发时,不同车道交通流的同态度量指数HMI会发生定性跃迁变化,并且各车道交通流的同态性变化将是一个“同态 非同态同态”的过程,因此可以利用这一性质,将HMI作为一个指标来对城市快速路交通拥堵是否可能发生进行预警。     

乌鲁木齐市中心城区常规公交乘客满意度研究

乌鲁木齐市中心城区交通日趋拥堵,优先发展公共交通是缓解城市交通拥堵,改善城市交通环境的主要措施。乌鲁木齐市的公共交通主要包括公共汽车和出租汽车,通过实地发放调查问卷、数据处理分析及结合乌鲁木齐市目前的实际情况,运用专家咨询法确定32个指标权重,构建基于综合模糊评价法的常规公交车乘客满意度总评价。获得不同评价结果,并提出改善对策,对乌鲁木齐市的未来常规公交发展起到参考作用。     

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城市道路网络中,各等级道路之间衔接的合理与否直接关系到相关道路乃至整个道路网络期望功能的实现。本文以不同等级道路功能分析为基础,提出城市综合交通规划的道路网规划,以交通功能为主要目标的城市道路网络系统专项规划,以服务功能为主要目标的道路网络衔接规划的总体思路。结合以概率统计为基础的蒙特卡罗算法,分别计算交通功能和服务功能的系统可靠度,以作为不同阶段道路网络衔接的主要评价指标,并探讨道路网络衔接中的越级交叉问题。最后以郑州市某区域道路网络为例,验证了本文方法的可行性与适用性。     

广州市与世界级城市交通模式辨析

中国城市常借鉴国外发展经验来制定城市交通战略,但缺乏对国内外城市交通特征的准确辨析。城市交通特征应反映主动出行者与被动出行者的区别。首先比较广州市与世界级城市的出行方式构成和出行特点,指出广州市的公共交通出行者大多为无驾驶执照或未购置小汽车的人群。针对公共交通出行分担率单一指标的弊端,引入公共交通出行指数与机动化水平来表征城市公共交通发展程度。评价广州市及世界级城市公共交通发展水平,并据此划分9类交通模式。结果显示,广州市公共交通服务水平和机动化水平均处于初级阶段。最后,分析广州市交通模式升级转型的最佳路线及实施策略,指出公共交通出行分担率与机动化水平的矛盾与协调是制定交通发展战略时需要考虑的关键所在。     

城市轨道交通网络可靠性分析

为预防突发事件对城市轨道交通网络的影响,提高应变能力、增强运营稳定性,有必要对其网络可靠性进行分析。以上海市轨道交通网络为实证对象,基于L空间和P空间方法建立两种网络拓扑结构,分析其复杂网络的静态特性。提出针对车站删除方法的4种攻击策略,并对各种攻击策略下网络可靠性的变化进行比较分析。结果表明,轨道交通车站网络和换乘网络对随机攻击具有鲁棒性,对蓄意攻击具有脆弱性;动态攻击策略对网络可靠性的影响比静态攻击策略更大。