Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes

Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.     

Improved driver responses at intersections with red signal countdown timers

Traffic Signal Countdown Timers (TSCTs) are innovative, practical and cost effective technologies with the potential to improve efficiency at signalized intersections. The purpose of these devices is to assist motorists in decision-making at signalized intersections with real-time signal duration information. This study focused specifically on driver responses in the presence of a Red Signal Countdown Timer (RSCT). A Linear Mixed Effect (LME) model was developed to predict the effect of RSCT on the headway of the first vehicle waiting on a red signal. The model predicted 0.72 s reduction in the headway of the first queued vehicle resulting from the presence of RSCT, while the observed difference in mean headway was 0.82 s. This result is suggestive of a reduction in start-up lost time at signalized intersections, i.e., an improvement in signalized intersection efficiency when an RSCT is present.     

Assessing the impact of tactical airport surface operations on airline schedule block time setting

With the growth of air traffic, airport surfaces are congested and air traffic operations are disrupted by the formation of bottlenecks on the surface. Hence, improving the efficiency and predictability of airport surface operations is not only a key goal of NASA’s initiatives in Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface (IADS) operations, but also has been recognized as a critical aspect of the FAA NextGEN implementation plan. While a number of tactical initiatives have been shown to be effective in improving airport surface operations from a service provider’s perspective, their impacts on airlines’ scheduled block time (SBT) setting, which has been found to have direct impact on airlines’ on-time performance and operating cost, have received little attention. In this paper, we assess this impact using an econometric model of airline SBT combined with a before/after analysis of the implementation of surface congestion management (SCM) at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in 2010. Since airlines do not consider gate delay in setting SBT, we find that reduction in taxi-out time variability resulting from SCM leads to more predictable taxi-out times and thus decreases in SBT. The JFK SCM implementation is used as a case study to validate model prediction performance. The observed SBT decrease between 2009 and 2011 at JFK is 4.8 min and our model predicts a 4.2 min decrease. In addition, Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) is used as an example to demonstrate how different surface operations improvements scenarios can be evaluated in terms of SBT reduction.     

Mapping spatial accessibility of public transportation network in an urban area – A case study of Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub

Accessibility is a key metric when assessing the efficiency of an urban public transportation network. This research develops a methodology for evaluating spatial accessibility of a system with multiple transportation modes in an urban area, Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub (SHTH) and its surrounding area. The method measured total traveling time as an accessibility indicator, which summed the time people spent on walking, waiting, transfer and transportation in a journey from the SHTH to destinations. Spatial accessibility was classified into five levels from very high to very low. The evaluation was conducted at a cell-by-cell basis under an overall scenario and three specific scenarios. Evaluation results were presented in a series of maps. The overall accessibility scenario shows a concentric-ring trend decreasing from the SHTH to the fringe of the study area. Areas along the metro lines generally have a much higher accessibility than those along the bus lines with some exceptions where bus routes play a more important role. Metro stations identified as either time-saving or time-consuming points are mainly distributed around the urban center. Some suggestions are proposed for improving accessibility of public transportation network in the study area. The results from this study provide a scientific basis and useful information for supporting decision-making on urban planning, and assisting dwellers to travel in a time-efficient manner. The methodology offers a simple, flexible way to the spatial evaluation, metro station identification and network modification of accessibility of public transportation systems with multiple transportation modes.     

400km/h高速动车组变轨距走行系统关键技术研究

为了适应不同的轨距尺寸,以传统动车组轮对结构为基础,进行了400 km/h高速变轨距走行系统关键技术设计,包括车轮和车轴的间隙设计研究、车轮和车轴的横向锁紧机构设计、转矩的传动技术设计、地面装置的设计以及适应高速运行的动力学分析,对各项技术的设计原理及其关键作用进行了详细说明。该设计思路可供国内变轨距转向架的研发提供参考。     

Changes in transport risk perception in urban populations in Norway from 2004 to 2013

Urban populations transport risk perception is interesting because it is associated with travel mode choices and use. This study investigates changes in transport-related risk constructs in the urban population in Norway in 2004 and 2013, and describes whether people perceive private or public to be associated with the highest risk. The results are based on self-completion questionnaire surveys conducted in two independent representative samples living in the same urban areas in 2004 (n?=?592) and 2013 (n?=?1035). Overall, the respondents perceived the risk as lower in 2013 than in 2004. For both time periods, people consistently assessed the risk constructs related to private motorized transportation as higher than corresponding risk in public transportation. The findings suggest that while transportation risk perception in urban populations may change over time, the pattern that private motorized transportation is associated with a higher perceived risk than public transportation remains stable.     

闸墙长廊道输水系统侧支孔均匀布置的水力特性

闸墙长廊道输水系统侧支孔出流不均匀是造成闸室水体流动和闸室水面波浪运动的主要原因。为研究侧支孔均匀布置的水力特性分布规律,通过CFD数值模拟方法分析输水方式、水头差和阀门开启时间对侧支孔出流的影响。结果表明,闸室输水过程中,各支孔流量先增大后减小、支孔流量分配的相对差异也先扩大后减小;闸室灌水时,各支孔流量分配呈由上游至下游逐渐增大然后再稍有减小的趋势,支孔最大流量大致分布在侧支孔出水段的后1/3区域;闸室泄水时,各支孔流量分配从上游至下游逐渐增大;闸室输水时间与水头差和阀门开启时间成正比,闸室灌水比泄水的输水时间稍短。     

侦察接收设备故障实时诊断系统的设计

对监测接收机故障诊断专家系统实时性的条件、状态参量的采集和推理的策略等方面进行具体的分析，对实时诊断系统的设计作了一些探讨，并结合当前的现状，分析了系统设计中的一些问题。     

直流车辆用蓄能器

直流车辆用文中所述的蓄能器能在显著降低功率消耗的同时,又在节能方面迈出了重要一步,而且车辆可在局部无接触导线区运行.样车试验证实了这些设想.