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This paper presents a dynamic network‐based approach for short‐term air traffic flow prediction in en route airspace. A dynamic network characterizing both the topological structure of airspace and the dynamics of air traffic flow is developed, based on which the continuity equation in fluid mechanics is adopted to describe the continuous behaviour of the en route traffic. Building on the network‐based continuity equation, the space division concept in cell transmission model is introduced to discretize the proposed model both in space and time. The model parameters are sequentially updated based on the statistical properties of the recent radar data and the new predicting results. The proposed method is applied to a real data set from Shanghai Area Control Center for the short‐term air traffic flow prediction both at flight path and en route sector level. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can characterize well the dynamics of the en route traffic flow, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The mean relative prediction errors are less than 0.10 and 0.14, and the absolute errors fall in the range of 0 to 1 and 0 to 3 in more than 95% time intervals respectively, for the flight path and en route sector level. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
355.
Bluetooth technology has been widely used in transportation studies to collect traffic data. Bluetooth media access control (MAC) readers can be installed along roadways to collect Bluetooth-based data. This data is commonly used to measure traffic performance. One of the advantages of using Bluetooth technology to measure traffic performance is that travel time can be measured directly with a certain level of error instead of by estimation. However, travel time outliers can commonly be observed due to different travel mode on arterials. Since travel mode information cannot be directly obtained from the raw Bluetooth-based data, a mathematical methodology is in need to identify travel mode. In this study, a genetic algorithm and neural network (GANN)-based model was developed to identify travel mode. GPS-enabled devices were used to collect ground truth travel time. In order to additionally compare the model performance, K nearest neighbor (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) were also implemented. N-fold cross validation was applied to statistically assess the models’ results. Since the model performances depend on the model inputs, seven collections of model inputs were tested in order to achieve the best travel mode identification performance. An arterial segment with four consecutive links and three intersections was selected to be the study segment. The results suggested that correctly identifying the three travel modes successfully every time was not possible, although the GANN based model had low misidentification rates. In our study, 6.12% of autos were misidentified as bikes and 10.53% of bikes were misidentified as autos using three links. 相似文献
356.
短时交通流预测在城市交通控制和管理中起着十分重要的作用。然而,目前很多预测模型均假定模型的参数是不随时间变化的,这与实际不符,从而影响了预测的精度。本文提出采用多层建模与灰色建模的综合方法预测短时交通流。该方法把预测问题分为两部分:一是预测模型参数的预测;二是根据参数预测值的交通流预测。其中,对模型参数运用灰色理论预测方法。实例分析表明,本方法有较好的预测精度和实用价值。 相似文献
357.
预制节段梁模板系统结构设计与系统运作 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
结合沪闵路高架二期节段梁的预制施工,介绍短线匹配法预制节段梁的模板系统结构设计原则、设计要求和模板系统的构成以及相关操作设备,并介绍了在预制施工过程中该模板系统中固定模板、匹配节段、底模、侧模等的运行方式和所采取精度控制方法。 相似文献
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从分析高速客运专线牵引负荷特点入手,结合京津城际工程具体实践,分析了从高速牵引负荷引起的电压损失与系统短路容量的关系、电力系统的电压损失与系统短路容量的关系、高速牵引负荷引起的初步电压不平衡与系统短路容量的关系,得出电力系统短路容量与客运专线牵引变压器的电压损失无关、与电力系统电压损失成反比、与电压不平衡值成反比,从理论和远期规划上提出电力系统短路容量应满足4000MVA以上. 相似文献
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宿淮高速公路五河口斜拉桥工程,进行了索塔足尺模型试验。针对环向预应力筋张拉伸长值比理论伸长值偏大这一现象,对环向预应力筋的张拉控制进行了研究,测试了6束预应力筋的摩阻系数。同时,还对初始张拉控制应力进行了试验分析,提出了相应的张拉控制程序。最后,对索塔锚固区共290束环向预应力筋实测张拉伸长值结果进行了概率统计分析,证实了理论伸长值修正算法中各项修正的必要性。 相似文献
360.
考虑到跟驰车流中前车车型对智能汽车跟车行为的影响,采用长短期记忆 (Long Short Term Memory,LSTM)神经网络,基于 NGSIM 数据集,通过 One-Hot方法编码车型特征,并引入注意力机制 (Attention Mechanism) 生成输入特征的注意力权重,训练并建立了一种可根据前车车型产生不同跟驰行为的智能车辆跟驰模型 (Identifiable Vehicle Type Car-Following Model,IVT-CF)。在不同前车车型的跟车场景中仿真发现,IVT-CF 模型仿真车辆的速度和位移的均方误差 (Mean Square Error,MSE) 比不分车型的 LSTM 模型分别降低了 23.8%、31.7%,比 IDM 模型分别降低了 15.8%、18.7%,仿真精度更高。在混入大型车辆的车队跟驰场景仿真中发现,交通流速度和车头间距的收敛时间为 92 s,该模型能较快收敛,具有较好的稳定性和抗干扰能力。 相似文献