Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

低温储罐失效分析及预防措施

文中对低温设备温差应力循环所产生的疲劳失效事故进行了分析,目的是防止低温储罐在使用中出现疲劳破坏。文中通过对失效低温设备断口形貌特征的勘察,采用断口分析、焊接缺陷分析、温差应力循环与疲劳载荷分析的方法,得出了低温液体储罐设备在使用中易出现疲劳失效模式的结论。同时,从设计结构、施焊控制、安全泄放装置维护等方面,对低温液体储罐疲劳失效提出了预防措施。     

Superpave-13沥青混合料高温稳定性分析

文章结合天水过境高速公路路面实体工程,对不同孔隙率条件下的Super-pave-13高性能沥青混合料进行了车辙试验及SPT试验分析。结果表明,要保证Superpave-13沥青混合料具有较好的高温稳定性,其压实孔隙率应控制在4%～6.5%范围内。     

调距桨桨叶连接螺栓过渡圆角光弹性试验研究

苛刻的空间尺寸要求和严酷的使用环境使得调距桨桨叶连接螺栓设计极为重要,为研究连接螺栓螺帽螺杆圆角过渡区域因截面形状突变存在的应力集中情况和应力分布规律,以某型调距桨桨叶连接螺栓联接组件作为试验模型,采用光弹性试验方法测得其应力分布和应力集中系数,并与有限元仿真分析结果进行了对比验证,为桨叶连接螺栓组件结构设计及其优化提供重要支撑。     

无梁板式高桩码头温度效应分析

气温的年变化会引起结构内温度的均匀变化,从而使得结构内部产生变形和内力,在高桩码头工程中温度作用往往会引起不利影响。为了研究无梁板式高桩码头的温度效应,基于无限板的热传导规律,以工程实例为依托,利用有限元软件ABAQUS建立三维模型。结合杭州地区的逐时气象资料,研究了气温变化特征、面板温差场以及结构变形与位移的变化规律,并对基本气温的选取进行讨论。结果表明:气温在无梁面板中呈现以厚度方向为主的一维传热特征,温度场在水平向分布均匀;气温年变幅在面板内几无衰减,日变幅对面板温度影响不可忽略;面板的整体温差与竣工时气温和年平均气温差,以及年变幅、日变幅的衰减值有关;无梁板码头基桩的温度响应受面板的整体温差控制,两者瞬时同步变化。     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

大体积混凝土凝固过程中的温度控制

进行大体积混凝土施工时必须根据混凝土水化热的具体情况,配备相应的监控系统—混凝土温度测试系统,对大体积混凝土凝固过程中的水化热进行实时温度检测,并对凝固过程进行全程检测和控制,采取相应的控制措施。     

半径250m曲线无缝线路稳定性分析及加强措施

本文通过分析不同工况对半径250 m曲线无缝线路临界轨温的影响,合理确定半径250m曲线作业轨温范围及稳定性影响因素.结合现场养护维修过程中遇到的问题和设备整修方法,从钢轨选用及修理、轨枕选用、道床修理等方面提出半径250 m曲线稳定性控制措施.     

燃料电池气体温湿度与电堆性能分析

系统性能指标是实现燃料电池工程化应用的瓶颈之一,系统搭建和调试过程中,空气与燃料温湿度是影响质子交换膜燃料电池性能的重要因素,对系统控制策略和辅机搭配方案的制定产生很大影响。本文通过实验与统计相结合的研究方式,研究15 kW燃料电池电堆在增湿温度分别为60℃、70℃和80℃条件下分别进行氢空单侧增湿、双侧增湿和不增湿时的输出功率、发电效率和单电池电压一致性。其中输出功率采用测试台直接测量、发电效率通过经验公式计算、电压一致性则通过巡检记录和统计方法相结合的方式评价。结果表明70℃时各增湿方案下优于其他温度同等湿度条件下的电堆性能,有增湿条件明显优于无增湿方案电堆性能,而双侧增湿和氢空单侧增湿对电堆性能影响不大。     

橡胶阻滑板与抛石基床摩擦系数统计特性与影响因素

长江口工程北导堤NⅡB标段采用在半圆形沉箱底板设置橡胶阻滑板的方法提高沉箱与抛石基床之间摩擦系数,作为抗地基土动力软化的工程措施。利用该项目试验数据,分析橡胶阻滑板与抛石基床的摩擦系数的统计特性与影响因素。分析结果表明,同一基床应力下摩擦系数试验值的概率分布接近于正态分布,摩擦系数的总体平均变化趋势随基床应力的增加略有降低,但全部试验数据的统计假设检验不支持这一观点,摩擦系数随基床应力的变化规律需要进一步研究。