基于弃尾队列的SCTP稳态吞吐量建模与分析

流控制传输协议（SCTP）是一个基于IP网络用于传输信令的新传输协议．由于其具有很多新的特性尤其对多宿的支持,使得其正在成为一种通用传输协议．本文对基于弃尾队列情况下的流控制传输协议的数据传输进行建模,得到一个稳态吞吐量关于丢包率的函数关系,并对结果进行仿真验证和分析．实验结果显示,该模型能够很好的估计流控制传输协议在弃尾引发丢包情况下的稳态吞吐量．     

南京港集装箱生成量预测与发展措施建议

通过对集装箱生成量大小的影响因素的分析,并结合历年海关数据及其他国民经济发展基本数据,得出南京港集装箱生成系数,利用动态因素分析法预测到2015年南京港集装箱生成量。再将其与南京港战略发展定位及省、市政府提出打造"南京长江国际航运物流中心"战略目标进行对比,最后分别从政府政策扶持、口岸单位合作、港口建设和经营等多方面提出了南京港集装箱发展的战略重点和发展策略。     

Next generation mega container ports: implications of traffic composition on sea space demand

ABSTRACT

Demand for sea space brought about by increasing container-shipping traffic has important implications on how this space is managed and used. This is particularly important given the long-term nature, high-asset specificity, high- opportunity cost of investment, and significant economic impact of container port activity on a locality. The challenge is especially pressing for ports, which are facing constraints in seaside capacity where container traffic also has to co-exist with the needs of other types of ship traffic. This challenge is likely be multiplied for next generation container ports, which are expected to handle even larger traffic volumes. These ports are also likely to face competing sea space demands from other economic and social activities especially when they are concurrently major confluences of trade, logistics, and urban populations. This is the first research to investigate in detail the impact and importance of investigating sea space requirements from the perspective of cargo traffic composition and ship capacity. Results show that transshipment containers can generate much higher demand for sea space due to the higher volume of shipping capacity that accompanies such traffic. Sustainability issues and managerial and policy implications pertaining to the development of next generation container ports are provided.     

降凝剂在低输量管线中的应用

低输量输油管道运行风险大,且无法通过调整输送工艺从根本上降低运行风险.降凝剂被认为是解决该问题的有效手段之一.文中阐述了降凝剂对原油的作用机理和其在输油管道上的实际应用效果,分析了在任丘-北京输油管线开展的降凝剂应用试验,通过对比试验结果,可以得出：降凝剂改善了油品凝点、黏度等物理性质,降低了低输量管线的运行风险,提高了管线运营的经济效益.     

三峡船闸通过能力的研究

分析三峡船闸通航现状和船闸拥堵造成的影响,预测三峡船闸通航需求及船闸实际最大通过能力,提出三峡船闸通过能力不足问题的解决办法及相应对策建议.     

复杂工艺条件下的港口煤炭在线筛分装箱系统

针对秦皇岛港块煤筛分装箱业务实际情况,研究了在煤二期原有卸三场地工艺条件下建设煤炭在线筛份装箱系统的工艺方案,分析了该建设项目对煤二期原有吞吐量以及全集团吞吐量的影响。实践表明,该方案有效利用了原场地及设备,效率高,占地少,对原有系统的影响可以忽略不计。     

新冠肺炎疫情对交通运输行业的影响及政策建议

2019年底开始的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对交通运输行业造成了明显冲击。为分析疫情对当前交通运输行业带来的影响,重点从客运、货运、港口生产、交通固定资产投资四方面进行了研究。然后,提出了四方面政策建议,包括加强交通运输疫情防控、积极发挥交通投资稳定器作用、加大高速公路通行服务保障和确保关系国计民生的重点物资基本运输需求,以便为各级交通运输管理部门决策提供参考,争取将疫情对行业的影响降到最低程度。     

广东省港口煤炭吞吐量需求及码头吞吐能力适应性分析

文章从广东省煤炭分区域、分行业消耗结构分析着手,总结了广东省煤炭供应及运输系统现状情况及特点,在重点分析广东省煤炭消耗需求的影响性因素的基础上,分析了广东省煤炭需求、未来煤炭来源地供应以及煤炭运输结构等方面的发展趋势。在预测2015年和2020年广东省煤炭吞吐量的基础上,分析了广东省煤炭码头吞吐能力的适应性,并归纳总结了六点主要结论。     

Research on probability distribution of port cargo throughput

In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships in the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment. Gross cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables determining each aspect of cargo throughput for every cargo ship arriving at the port. Probability distribution was determined using the Wald equation. The results show that the variability of gross cargo throughput primarily depends on the different times required by different cargo ships arriving at the port. This model overcomes the shortcoming of previous models： inability to accurately determine the probability of a specific value of future gross cargo throughput. Our proposed model of cargo throughput depends on the relationship between time required by a cargo ship arriving at the port and the operational capacity of handling equipment at the port. At the same time, key factors affecting gross cargo throughput are analyzed. In order to test the efficiency of the model, the cargo volume of a port in Shandong Province was used as an example. In the case study the actual results matched our theoretical analysis.     

用海港规范公式计算大型石油码头通过能力存在的缺陷和弥补方向

在工程实践中发现,目前测算装卸油品码头年通过能力所用的《港口总平面设计规范》中有关规定的理论条件与实际情况之间有一定的偏离。笔者试图分析这种偏离可划属的理论范畴和可能的纠正方向。