面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持研究

近年来全球新发重大传染病疫情不断出现，已成为人类社会必须防范应对的重大风险。公共交通在传染病疫情防控过程中承担着阻断病毒传播和保障复工复产的功能，疫情期间公共交通运行管理的决策需求和技术支撑体系与日常情况有显著差异。现有研究多针对公交日常运行决策需求展开，虽有少量针对突发公共事件的应急管理决策支持的研究，但多针对自然灾害和事故灾难场景，无法迁移应用于传染病疫情防控。基于此，以新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情为例，综合考虑突发公共卫生事件应急管理流程和疫情防控实际情况，系统梳理疫情不同阶段的防控目标和决策需求，提出一种面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持系统框架，建立基于公共卫生事件案例库、多源数据融合库、公交数据分析技术库和公交防疫策略库的功能架构，并设计不同功能模块的算法模型。研究以厦门为例，对提出的决策支持系统的功能架构和算法模型进行验证。研究结果表明，构建公交乘客出行链的成功率为89.7%，并可应用于疫情不同阶段的关联客流分析、感染者同乘人员的追溯分析、医护人员等防疫人员的通勤出行识别、公交运行满载率监控等方面。研究成果不仅对传染病疫情防控有实用价值，而且对突发公共事件应急管理决策支持方法亦有理论贡献。     

交通运输企业伦理的基本维度研究

交通运输企业伦理是运输企业在生产经营活动中所确认并遵循的价值观念与行为方式。文章运用抽象方法,对交通运输企业的＂安全、便捷、文明、生态＂四个基本原则进行了深入分析,旨在为运输企业的伦理化运营提供理论指向。     

炭纤维复合叠层铝板的制备工艺和实验研究

综合评论了从ＡＲＡＬＬ发展到新一代复合叠层铝合金板的进展。实验研究了新一代的叠层铝板－－炭纤维复合叠层铝板的制备工艺，并提供了所制备的炭纤维复合叠层铝板的性能。结果表明：这种铝板具有ＡＲＡＬＬ板的各种优点，能改进ＡＲＡＬＬ的一些缺点，它的各种性能指标皆优于铝合金板，因此可望取代高强度铝合金板而广泛应用于各类工程项目之中。     

Modeling the relationships among urban passenger travel carbon dioxide emissions,transportation demand and supply,population density,and proxy policy variables

To support the development of policies that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by encouraging reduced travel and increased use of efficient transportation modes, it is necessary to better understand the explanatory effects that transportation, population density, and policy variables have on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. This study presents the development of a model of CO₂ emissions per capita as a function of various explanatory variables using data on 146 urbanized areas in the United States. The model takes into account selectivity bias resulting from the fact that adopting policies aimed at reducing emissions in an urbanized area may be partly driven by the presence of environmental concerns in that area. The results indicate that population density, transit share, freeway lane-miles per capita, private vehicle occupancy, and average travel time have a statistically significant explanatory effect on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. In addition, the presence of automobile emissions inspection programs, which serves as a proxy indicator of other policies addressing environmental concerns and which could influence travelers in making environmentally favorable travel choices, markedly changes the manner in which transportation variables explain CO₂ emission levels.     

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高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.     

公路运输对经济发展的影响分析

结合公路运输的基本特性,以及公路设施对人们生活出行的重要性,详细阐述公路运输对经济发展的影响。公路运输系统的发展,不仅会大大促进国民经济的发展,而且对人民生活水平的提高和社会的全面进步,都有着巨大的推动作用和重要的现实意义。     

Dynamic demand estimation and microscopic traffic simulation of a university campus transportation network

Abstract

This article documents the authors' experience with the modeling, simulation, and analysis of a university transportation system, using the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System (TRANSIMS). The processes of data preparation and network coding are described, followed by the algorithm developed to estimate the dynamic 24-hour demand, which includes a procedure for estimating the ‘desirability’ of the different parking lots from readily available data. The dynamic demand estimation algorithm is validated by comparing estimated and observed parking lot occupancies, where it is shown that the algorithm is capable of replicating observed results. Finally, an example is included to demonstrate how the developed model can be used in campus transportation planning. Besides serving as a first case study for using TRANSIMS to model a university campus, the study's contributions include the development of a procedure for parking lot desirability ranking and a practical procedure for estimating dynamic demand on university campuses.     

Analyzing the theoretical capacity of railway networks with a radial-backbone topology

In this work we propose a mechanism to optimize the capacity of the main corridor within a railway network with a radial-backbone or X-tree structure. The radial-backbone (or X-tree) structure is composed of two types of lines: the primary lines that travel exclusively on the common backbone (main corridor) and radial lines which, starting from the common backbone, branch out to individual locations. We define possible line configurations as binary strings and propose operators on them for their analysis, yielding an effective algorithm for generating an optimal design and train frequencies. We test our algorithm on real data for the high speed line Madrid–Seville. A frequency plan consistent with the optimal capacity is then proposed in order to eliminate the number of transfers between lines as well as to minimize the network fleet size, determining the minimum number of vehicles needed to serve all travel demand at maximum occupancy.     

基于“聚焦物流”理论的军事运输发展研究

＂聚焦物流＂是美军提出的一种先进物流理念,它要求在准确的地点、时间提供给联合作战各种参战人员和各类装备数量合适的后勤物资供应,它建立在以网络为基础的实时可视化信息系统之上,高效快速地连接战场指挥官和后勤供应机构,通过物流机构和程序的改革,为联合作战提供多功能的后勤保障。＂聚焦物流＂在历次局部战争中得到很好应用,取得良好...