基于FTA方法降低涡轮增压器失效风险

故障树分析是一种有效的系统可靠性分析方法,已经广泛应用在机械行业的各个领域。通过故障树分析可以找出涡轮增压器过载的失效原因。对该机型的技术改进证实,所采取的弥补措施能有效降低涡轮增压器的失效风险。     

数据挖掘技术在物流客户关系管理中的应用

通过数据挖掘技术的引入,提出了一种新的物流客户关系管理方法。在对数据挖掘方法作了全面论述的基础上,着重分析了关联分析方法和决策树分析方法,并结合两个实例讨论了方法的应用。     

基于事故树分析的铁路牵引供电系统可靠性评价

提出一种基于事故树分析的可靠性评价方法,用于描述电气化铁路牵引供电系统各失效原因之间的逻辑关系,并通过定量分析方法计算系统失效概率函数。虽然事故树分析方法被用于评价复杂大系统的可靠性时具有良好效果,但不足之处是需要消耗大量的计算时间。因此,本文又进一步提出一种事故树近似评价方法,根据串-并联和并-串联系统的可靠性函数计算事故树顶事件发生概率的上、下边界,然后计算上、下边界的平均值作为事故树顶事件发生概率的近似值。本文以电气化铁路交流牵引供电系统AT供电方式为例建立事故树,并应用本文提出的近似方法对该算例事故树顶事件发生概率进行计算,证明本文方法与传统的准确评价方法的计算结果之间误差很小,且较大程度减少了评价过程所需的计算时间。     

Winter problems on mountain passes – Implications for cost-benefit analysis

Cost-benefit analysis is a tool in government decision-making for determining the consequences of alternative uses of society’s scarce resources. Such a systematic process of comparing benefits and costs was adopted in early years for transportation projects and it has been the subject of much refining over the years. There are still some flaws, however, in the application of the method. In this article we have studied the impact of weather conditions on traffic speed on low traffic roads often exposed to adverse weather. This is an issue not currently considered in the cost-benefit analysis of road projects. By using two analytical approaches—structural equation modelling and classification and regression tree analysis—the impact of the weather indicators temperature, wind speed, and precipitation on traffic speed has been quantified. The data relates to three winter months on the European Route 6 road over the mountain pass Saltfjellet in Norway. Increase in wind speed, increase in precipitation and temperatures around freezing point all caused significant decrease in traffic speed in the case studied. If actions were taken to reduce the impact of adverse weather on traffic (e.g. by building a tunnel through the mountain) this study indicates that the road users would gain a total benefit of approximately 2,348,000 NOK (282,000 EUR) each winter at Saltfjellet if all the weather related benefits were included. We argue that this is a significant number that is highly relevant to include in CBAs. This applies both to the CBAs of new transportation projects as well as when resources are allocated for operation, maintenance, and monitoring of the existing transport systems. Including the weather related benefits would improve the application of CBA as a decision-making tool for policy makers.     

MARK-5型报警器故障树诊断与可靠性分析

利用故障树的方法对MARK-5型油雾浓度监视报警器系统进行可靠性评估,求得该系统的平均无故障时间,对其进行定期检查和维护保养,保证该系统更加安全可靠地运行。     

舰船导航设备故障分析方法研究

研究基于卷积的扩展修正的模糊故障树分析方法。通过该方法在电罗经模糊故障树分析中的应用，证明该方法能够有效解决经典模糊算法在电罗经的模糊故障树分析中出现的结果扩散性大、可解释性不强的缺点，并可广泛应用于其他导航设备的故障分析。     

模糊事件树在船用堆事故分析中的应用研究

对船用堆事故进行事件树分析时,历史数据的缺乏常常导致无法进行事件序列的定量计算。针对这一问题,利用专家对事故的模糊评判,引入模糊事件树进行定量计算研究。在模糊集理论的基础上,结合德尔菲法和判断矩阵法,详细阐述了模糊事件树在船用堆事故分析中的应用过程。研究表明,船用堆事故概率的模糊事件树分析是切实可行的,有助于船用反应堆概率安全评价的发展。     

车用发动机过热故障树分析

应用故障树分析方法,对某车用发动机冷却系统过热故障进行分析。给出了冷却系统过热故障的各种原因及其组合方式,进行了故障树的定性分析和定量计算。遵循故障树定性分析所得出的最小割集,可以方便快捷地查找到引起顶事件的底事件故障,以便采取有效措施预防发动机冷却系统过热故障的发生或减小其发生概率。     

基于遗传算法的固定费用运输问题研究

根据m个源节点和n个目的节点的固定费用运输问题的网络特性建立数学模型,引入运输树的概念,提出了基于运输树的遗传算法,给出了能表示基解的染色体编码方法,通过计算机程序产生初始种群,提出了染色体选择、交配及变异规则。最后运用实例对算法的有效性进行验证,取得了满意的效果。