Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

铁路交通事故应急救援体系脆弱性评价方法研究

脆弱性评价方法是描述系统及其组成部分的风险评估方法.本文提出基于群体灰色层次分析法的脆弱性评价方法,并运用该方法对铁路交通事故应急救援管理体系中存在的脆弱性问题进行研究,构建铁路交通事故应急救援管理体系的脆弱性评估指标,通过算例分析各脆弱单元的特征和分布规律,计算出需要加强的脆弱性单元.通过与普通层次分析法比较可以看出,群体灰色层次分析法是评估铁路交通事故应急救援预案和应急能力的一种更加有效的方法.     

Assessment of Vulnerability and Integrated Management of Coastal Dunes in Veracruz,Mexico

Dune systems are essential to the ecological balance and sediment inputs of coastal environments and they provide numerous environmental services; however, their existence is threatened by natural and human stressors that contribute to their degradation. Future impacts are expected to be greater because of global climate change in association with further rises in sea level. Beaches and dune systems occupy large areas along the coastline of the state of Veracruz on the Gulf of Mexico. The aim of this study is to establish the intrinsic vulnerability of nine dune fields in Veracruz to current and future impacts and to assess their integrated management status. These dune–beach systems are more vulnerable to the effects of economic activities and land use change than to those induced by natural forces. Results show that six of these dune systems have medium vulnerability and an ecological conservation policy should be adopted; the other three, with high or very high vulnerability, are candidates for a restoration policy.     

破损结构地震反应简化分析法的单自由度破损模型研究

MSP(Multi-step pushover method)法是一种弹塑性推覆方法,可以评估破损状态的建筑结构的地震反应。它以地震反应谱作为输入,根据结构的动力特性分配荷载,逐步推覆,得到破损结构的最大地震反应,简便实用。作者针对MSP法中破损模型的选择和改善问题进行了专门研究和探讨。通过与非线性时程法进行对比,首次提出适用于单自由度体系的破损模型。实例计算表明,本文提出的模型可用,分析误差小,有助于MSP法进一步完善。     

城市轨道交通生产系统网络安全设计方案研究

对城市轨道交通生产网存在的各种网络安全隐患和风险进行了分析总结。根据网络安全等级保护2.0系列标准,从“一个中心、三重防护”的安全技术体系角度深入剖析了城市轨道交通生产网各系统网络安全的主要控制项、应对措施和配套的安全设备。结合城市轨道交通生产网各系统的业务特点和主要控制项,给出了各系统的安全设备具体部署方案,可为城市轨道交通网络安全体系建设提供参考。     

第二代完整稳性衡准的验证与改进研究

国际海事组织正在研究制定第二代完整稳性衡准,根据已经提出的参数横摇和纯稳性丧失的第一层薄弱性衡准建议方案,对我国5艘客滚船、5艘集装箱船、5艘油船和5艘散货船进行实船验证,对第一层薄弱性衡准的建议方案的适用性和合理性,提出必要的改进意见和建议,以完善新的国际完整稳性衡准规则。     

漏洞检测静态分析方法的优化策略

目前软件漏洞静态解决方案大都有针对性的检测某些方面的软件漏洞,无法做到全面、高效、准确的检测出所有漏洞。通过讨论目前已有的一些漏洞检测技术与工具,并研究这些工具与技术各自存在的优势与缺陷。在此基础上提出改进漏洞检测静态分析的优化策略。     

水雷易损性建模与数值仿真研究

以水雷为研究对象,提出了水雷目标易损性研究的总体框架;通过对水雷的结构及功能分析、毁伤级别的确定以及构建水雷功能毁伤树,建立了水雷目标易损性模型;完成了水下射弹对水雷侵彻毁伤过程的数值仿真。仿真结果表明,钨芯射弹能够穿透水雷壳体并破坏引信舱内构件,造成水雷失效。     

Non‐physical barriers to traffic flow and the PTA programme of action: problems and prospects

A lot of resources have .been committed to the provision of transport infrastructure in Eastern and Southern Africa. Some of these resources have been borrowed from outside and have to be repaid. Hence the need to maximize their use. However, this is being minimized by non‐infrastructural bottlenecks to traffic flow. These range from macro‐economic constraints with implications for passenger (bus) transport such as the non‐availability or acute shortage of foreign exchange to slow, cumbersome documentation procedures particularly for cross‐border traffic.

The Preferential Trade Area (PTA) for Eastern and Southern Africa is geared to the reduction and eventual elimination of actual and potential non‐physical barriers to traffic flow, for which it has instituted a number of schemes. After introductory remarks on the sub‐regional economy, its transport sector and avenues for sub‐regional cooperation and the implementation of these schemes is assessed and other non‐physical barriers yet to be addressed by the PTA are examined before conclusions are drawn.     

Social and spatial effects of transforming the private vehicle fleet in Brisbane,Australia

Transformation of the motor vehicle fleet has been an important feature of the world’s peak car phenomenon. Very few urban transport studies have explored such important changes in large urban cities. Using an innovative green vehicle datasets constructed for 2009 and 2014, this paper investigates the ongoing change in urban private vehicle fleet efficiency (VFE) in Brisbane. The spatial patterns of VFE change were examined with social-spatial characteristics of the urban area. The results showed that the social and spatial effect of VFE changes remain uneven over urban space. The inner urban areas have experienced higher level of VFE change, whilst people in the outer and oil vulnerable areas showed a low tendency in shifting to more efficient vehicles. The implication of VFE change for future household vehicle adoption was also evaluated based on a cost-benefit analysis of new vehicle technology costs and expected fuel savings for households that choose a fuel efficient vehicle. The results show that imposing a stronger national fuel economy target in the long term would accelerate evolution of vehicle fleets and oil vulnerability reduction in Brisbane.