Predicting the Dielectric Strength of c-C4F8 and SF6 Gas Mixtures by Monte Carlo Method

An improved Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the motion of electrons in c-C_4F_8 and SF_6 gas mixtures for pulsed townsend discharge. The electron swarm parameters such as effective ionization coefficient, [AKα-] and drift velocity over the E/N range from 280～700 Td(1Td=10-21 V·m2) were calculated by employing a set of cross sections available in literature. From the variation cure of [AKα-] with SF_6 partial pressure p, the limiting field (E/N)_lim of gas mixture at different gas content was determined. It is found that the limiting field of c-C_4F_8 and SF_6 gas mixture is higher than that of pure SF_6 at any SF_6 mixture ratio. Simulation results show excellent agreement with experiment data available in previous literature.     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

考虑路网随机性的地铁和道路公交网络优化

为发挥轨道交通的骨干运输功能,优化综合公共交通出行网络,建立了基于既有轨道交通路网的地面道路公交调整双层规划模型。上层规划考虑综合公交网络客运量及轨道交通客运周转量最大化、总社会出行成本及车辆配备成本最小化共4个目标,下层模型以效用理论为基础构建弹性需求下的线路流量分配,其中地面道路公交线路的出行效用考虑了道路通行能力的随机性。采用蒙特卡罗模拟求解下层模型,并采用基于向量的多目标粒子群算法求解整体双层规划,获得最佳调整线路的走向和发车间隔。最后通过算例验证了模型和算法。计算结果表明:所得到的解为一组Pareto解,4个目标间存在相悖关系。在实际问题中,应结合改造成本和现实需要来选取最优解作为调整方案。     

破碎围岩中连拱隧道荷载计算理论解

针对连拱隧道围岩、结构整体受力和受力敏感分析不明确的问题,提出按岩体结构观点对连拱隧道围岩进行分类,即分成连续介质围岩、碎裂介质围岩、块裂介质围岩和板裂介质围岩。将碎裂介质围岩、块裂介质围岩和板裂介质围岩称为破碎围岩。建立破碎围岩的力学模型,求破碎围岩中连拱隧道荷载的理论解。     

驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型

为准确模拟驾驶人跟车行为,提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM)的驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型。建立描述驾驶意愿的HMM模型,模拟驾驶人感知过程,获得期望的车间距;预测模块模拟驾驶人根据交通环境和自身生理、心理状态预测车辆未来轨迹,即决策过程;优化模块描述驾驶人为使预测的车辆轨迹跟踪上期望的车辆间距而采取的操控汽车的执行动作,即操控过程。上述3个模块的滚动过程实现了对驾驶人跟车行为的模拟。利用自然驾驶数据进行算例分析,结果表明,本文模型预测车间距平均误差仅为1.47%,证明了所建模型的有效性及准确性。本文为驾驶行为建模方法的理论研究和应用拓宽了思路。     

马尔柯夫灰色残差模型在剐构桥控制中的应用

文章结合罗天乐特大桥的马尔柯夫灰色残差模型预测实例,介绍马尔柯夫灰色残差模型在线性控制中的原理、计算及应用过程,并根据实际监控经验提出了建议。罗天乐特大桥的具体监控应用实践表明,马尔柯夫灰色残差模型预测精度高,能较好地应用于大跨连续刚构桥的施工线形控制。     

活断层错动位移下衬砌断面型式对隧道结构的影响

以棋盘石隧道为工程背景,采用有限元方法,设置五种不同仰拱半径的三心圆断面,对比研究了活动断层错动下不同衬砌断面型式对链式结构隧道受力及塑性变形的影响。结果表明:断层错动引起隧道二次衬砌受到拉张、剪切、挤压组合作用;断层错动引起的高应力带主要在断层带内的节段拱脚位置,且峰值位于上盘,剪切缝能有效地吸收断层错动产生的拉应力;在隧道断面不断趋向正圆的过程中,二次衬砌最大主应力、最小主应力、剪应力均呈减小趋势,等效塑性应变呈增大趋势。     

Lane changing intention recognition based on speech recognition models

Poor driving habits such as not using turn signals when changing lanes present a major challenge to advanced driver assistance systems that rely on turn signals. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm combining the hidden Markov model (HMM) and Bayesian filtering (BF) techniques to recognize a driver’s lane changing intention. In the HMM component, the grammar definition is inspired by speech recognition models, and the output is a preliminary behavior classification. As for the BF component, the final behavior classification is produced based on the current and preceding outputs of the HMMs. A naturalistic data set is used to train and validate the proposed algorithm. The results reveal that the proposed HMM–BF framework can achieve a recognition accuracy of 93.5% and 90.3% for right and left lane changing, respectively, which is a significant improvement compared with the HMM-only algorithm. The recognition time results show that the proposed algorithm can recognize a behavior correctly at an early stage.     

The price of uncertainty in pavement infrastructure management planning: An integer programming approach

Currently there is a true dichotomy in the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) literature. On the one hand, there are integer programming-based models that assume that parameters are deterministically known. On the other extreme, there are stochastic models, with the most popular class being based on the theory of Markov decision processes that are able to account for various sources of uncertainties observed in the real-world. In this paper, we present an integer programming-based alternative to account for these uncertainties. A critical feature of the proposed models is that they provide – a priori – probabilistic guarantees that the prescribed M&R decisions would result in pavement condition scores that are above their critical service levels, using minimal assumptions regarding the sources of uncertainty. By construction of the models, we can easily determine the additional budget requirements when additional sources of uncertainty are considered, starting from a fully deterministic model. We have coined this additional budget requirement the price of uncertainty to distinguish from previous related work where additional budget requirements were studied due to parameter uncertainties in stochastic models. A numerical case study presents valuable insights into the price of uncertainty and shows that it can be large.     

基于交通因子状态网络的城市交叉口交通流预测

信息技术的快速发展,为交通研究和城市交通管理提供了大规模、多样化的数据资源,并为城市交通状态估计和交通流预测方法的研究提供了有力支持.将城市交叉口视为一个微观交通系统,采用数据驱动与领域知识结合的方式,建立微观层次的交通因子状态网络模型(Traffic Factor State Network,TFSN),考察交通因素...