铁路物流的概念与特性分析

在对物流共性要素特性进行分析的基础上,提出铁路物流的概念,阐述铁路物流的网络性、干线性、大宗性、重载性、环保性和快捷性特征。     

对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

Meta-analysis of public transport demand

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.     

Ramp meters on trial: Evidence from the Twin Cities metering holiday

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities have been the subject of a recent test of their effectiveness, involving turning them off for eight weeks. This paper analyzes the results with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Seven performance measures: mobility, equity, productivity, consumers’ surplus, accessibility, travel time variation and travel demand responses are compared. It is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. Ramp metering, while generally beneficial to freeway segments, may not improve trip travel times (including ramp delays). The reduction in travel time variation comprises another benefit from ramp meters. Non-work trips and work trips respond differently to ramp meters. The results are mixed, suggesting a more refined ramp control algorithm, which explicitly considers ramp delay, is in order.     

光缆线路大衰耗点的分析和处理

本文分析了光缆施工中大衰耗点的产生原因及处理方法。     

客专ZPW-2000A移频信号应用研究

ZPW-2000A无绝缘轨道电路,用于列车占用检查和向列车提供前方闭塞分区空闲信息,是现代化铁路信号设备的重要组成部分.简要介绍客运专线ZPW-2000A的原理、日常维护问题及故障分析处理方面的内容,并针对系统通道故障提出快速处理的方法和应该注意的问题.     

轿车车身结构动力学分析

利用有限元分析的方法对轿车车身骨架结构进行了动力学分析，通过对改变车身结构情况分析计算，研究了车身结构与其固有频率和振动的关系，结果表明：对于管式骨架式轿车车身，可改变钢管外径来解决共振问题。钢管外径和壁厚对其振型改变很小。进行局部加强也可改变整个车身结构的频率，而且对减小局部大变形有较好的效果。     

基于LSTM模型的船舶材料成本滚动预测

船舶建造周期长、材料成本占比大,易受大宗商品价格指数和汇率等多个因素的影响,造成实际完工成本与报价估算存在较大误差的情况。采用灰色关联分析（Grey Correlation Analysis,GCA）方法识别材料成本的影响因素,基于长短期记忆网络（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）模型构建船舶材料成本滚动预测模型,并使用某造船企业53艘64 000 t散货船63个月的材料成本数据和对应的影响因素数据进行试验分析。结果表明,预测数据与实际数据误差在可接受范围内,可证明所选择方法和构建模型的有效性。研究结果对船舶建造过程的成本实时预测和控制具有现实意义。     

现浇钢筋混凝土连续箱梁桥裂缝成因分析

从荷载、温度变化、收缩、地基础变形、钢筋锈蚀、冻胀、施工材料质量、施工工艺质量等方面分析混凝土结构裂缝的成因。     

风行MPV车车内噪声分析与控制

阐述东风风行MPV车室内噪声的主要来源,介绍整车隔音降噪工程在东风风行MPV车上的具体运用,通过隔音材料的比较,提出了相应的控制措施,并结合成本控制因素,对降噪过程进行优化。