Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

优化运输结构加快铁路发展

交通运输业的发展受资源环境约束,各种运输方式在资源消耗和环境保护等方面存在较大差异,对资源和环境的影响也不同。我国各种运输方式发展的关键是在资源环境约束条件下协调发展。深入贯彻落实科学发展观,加强统筹协调和宏观调控,推进交通运输结构优化,加快铁路发展,提高铁路运输能力,促进节能减排、资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设。     

铁路冷藏车不稳定传热反应系数法的研究与分析

由于铁路冷藏车在结构、运行环境等方面与普通建筑相比存在较大区别,故传热特性不同,反应系数差异大。使用反应系数法研究铁路冷藏车的不稳定传热过程,利用计算机辅助分析方法对冷藏车围护结构的不稳定传热进行数值计算,考察不同车速、不同方程根项数以及不同反应系数项数等对冷藏车负荷计算精度的影响。研究表明:冷藏车运行速度对整体计算精度影响不大,取200 km.h-1时的相关数值最佳;方程根值取至-25,车顶的反应系数项数取至第30项,车壁和车底的反应系数项数取至第15项,即可满足求解精度要求。     

铁路物流的概念与特性分析

在对物流共性要素特性进行分析的基础上,提出铁路物流的概念,阐述铁路物流的网络性、干线性、大宗性、重载性、环保性和快捷性特征。     

铁路提速与信号规范

研究提速后信号机间距离与制动距离的关系、信号显示制度的变化及机车信号显示的原则。根据中国铁路的提速特点,对信号运行基础的参数和理论进行重新审视,分析了铁路信号相应的标准、规范、制式和设备技术原则的适应性。研究后提出的信号机间距离必须满足速度级差制动距离的要求;信号显示必须向速差式发展;机车信号显示原则由"显示相符"改成"显示含义相符";四显示自动闭塞制式等建议,并落实在技规和规范的适应性修改中,基本上适应了提速的需求。     

Impacts of motor vehicle operation on water quality in the US – Cleanup costs and policies

This paper investigates the costs of controlling some of the environmental impacts of motor vehicle transportation on groundwater and on surface waters. We estimate that annualized costs of cleaning-up leaking underground storage tanks range from $0.8 billion to $2.1 billion per year over 10 years. Annualized costs of controlling highway runoff from principal arterials in the US are much larger: they range from $2.9 billion to $15.6 billion per year over 20 years (1.6–8.3% of annualized highway transportation expenditures). Some causes of non-point source pollution were unintentionally created by regulations or could be addressed by simple design changes of motor vehicles. A review of applicable measures suggests that effective policies should combine economic incentives, information campaigns, and enforcement, coupled with preventive environmental measures. In general, preventing water pollution from motor vehicles would be much cheaper than cleaning it up.     

基于和谐理念的出租车客运系统发展研究

从行业管理角度出发。采用和谐理念．分析当前出租车客运系统的“负效应”。探讨其表现形式和成因。通过对目前出租车客运系统和谐状态的判断。指出相关的和谐要点和简单措施。     

Multiphysic modelling of railway vehicles equipped with pneumatic suspensions

This article presents a multidisciplinary approach of railway pneumatic suspension modelling: both multibody and pneumatic aspects are taken into account. The work aims at obtaining a realistic model of the secondary suspension and coupling it with a multibody model of a train. Various components of the pneumatic circuit such as bellows, tanks, pipes and valves are taken into account. The article focuses on the bellow-pipe-tank subsystem for which several modelling approaches are presented and compared. Differences between differential and algebraic models are highlighted, and an application-dependent choice between them is suggested. A complete model of the pneumatic circuit is then obtained and coupled with a multibody model of the train. As a result, the behaviour of a suburban train equipped with a pneumatic secondary suspension is analysed, in particular undesired oscillating motions which affect the comfort. Topological modifications and improvements of the suspension are also investigated and discussed.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Managing transportation during highway reconstruction: A recommended process

Major highway reconstruction can cause significant disruptions to existing travel patterns and economic activity. Reducing these impacts on travelers, shippers, businesses and residents requires that innovative and effective transportation management actions be developed and implemented. This paper reports the major findings and recommendations of a research study on managing transportation during highway, reconstruction. The primary objectives of the study were