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Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jan Vespermann Andreas Wald 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2011,45(10):1066-1076
From 2012 on, all CO2 emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design. 相似文献
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Michiel C.J. Bliemer John M. Rose 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2011,45(1):63-79
Discrete choice experiments are conducted in the transport field to obtain data for investigating travel behaviour and derived measures such as the value of travel time savings. The multinomial logit (MNL) and other more advanced discrete choice models (e.g., the mixed MNL model) have often been estimated on data from stated choice experiments and applied for planning and policy purposes. Determining efficient underlying experimental designs for these studies has become an increasingly important stream of research, in which the objective is to generate stated choice tasks that maximize the collected information, yielding more reliable parameter estimates. These theoretical advances have not been rigorously tested in practice, such that claims on whether the theoretical efficiency gains translate into practice cannot be made. Using an extensive empirical study of air travel choice behaviour, this paper presents for the first time results of different stated choice experimental design approaches, in which respective estimation results are compared. We show that D-efficient designs keep their promise in lowering standard errors in estimating, thereby requiring smaller sample sizes, ceteris paribus, compared to a more traditional orthogonal design. The parameter estimates found using an orthogonal design or an efficient design turn out to be statistically different in several cases, mainly attributed to more or less dominant alternatives existing in the orthogonal design. Furthermore, we found that small designs with a limited number of choice tasks performs just as good (or even better) than a large design. Finally, we show that theoretically predicted sample sizes using the so-called S-estimates provide a good lower bound. This paper will enable practitioners in better understanding the potential benefits of efficient designs, and enables policy makers to make decisions based on more reliable parameter estimates. 相似文献
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A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Airport choice is an important air travel-related decision in multiple airport regions. This paper proposes the use of a probabilistic choice set multinomial logit (PCMNL) model for airport choice that generalizes the multinomial logit model used in all earlier airport choice studies. The paper discusses the properties of the PCMNL model, and applies it to examine airport choice of business travelers residing in the San Francisco Bay Area. Substantive policy implications of the results are discussed. Overall, the results indicate that it is important to analyze the choice (consideration) set formation of travelers. Failure to recognize consideration effects of air travelers can lead to biased model parameters, misleading evaluation of the effects of policy action, and a diminished data fit. 相似文献
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Julie Wallace Pavlos Kanaroglou 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2008,13(5):323-333
This study characterizes the dispersion of emissions of oxides of nitrogen and nitrogen dioxide from traffic sources in the Hamilton census metropolitan area. The Integrated Model of Urban Landuse and Transportation for Environmental Analysis software was used to estimate emissions of oxides of nitrogen from traffic sources. The Air Pollution Model, was used to simulate dispersion of the traffic emissions over the city. The models account for the two primary wind directions in this region – the prevailing southwest and a secondary northeast direction. The results show a prominent triangle of high pollution defined by major roads and highways along the periphery of the Hamilton Harbour, at peak-hour. With southwest winds, residential areas along the northern shoreline of the Harbour are affected, while the western sections of the city are affected by northeast winds. High concentrations are persistent in some areas, for both wind directions. The resulting dispersion surfaces characterize the spatial distribution of traffic emissions and thus provide a means of assessing population exposure over the Hamilton area. 相似文献
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Tailpipe emissions from vehicles on urban road networks have damaging impacts, with the problem exacerbated by the common occurrence of congestion. This article focuses on carbon dioxide because it is the largest constituent of road traffic greenhouse gas emissions. Local Government Authorities (LGAs) are typically responsible for facilitating mitigation of these emissions, and critical to this task is the ability to assess the impact of transport interventions on road traffic emissions for a whole network.This article presents a contemporary review of literature concerning road traffic data and its use by LGAs in emissions models (EMs). Emphasis on the practicalities of using data readily available to LGAs to estimate network level emissions and inform effective policy is a relatively new research area, and this article summarises achievements so far. Results of the literature review indicate that readily available data are aggregated at traffic level rather than disaggregated at individual vehicle level. Hence, a hypothesis is put forward that optimal EM complexity is one using traffic variables as inputs, allowing LGAs to capture the influence of congestion whilst avoiding the complexity of detailed EMs that estimate emissions at vehicle level.Existing methodologies for estimating network emissions based on traffic variables typically have limitations. Conclusions are that LGAs do not necessarily have the right options, and that more research in this domain is required, both to quantify accuracy and to further develop EMs that explicitly include congestion, whilst remaining within LGA resource constraints. 相似文献
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Pierre Merlin 《运输规划与技术》2013,36(1):39-52
A decade of increasing Federal attention to urban transportation needs has culminated in the 1970 Urban Mass Transportation Assistance Act. This Act is intended to provide 10 thousand million dollars over the next 12 years in Federal assistance money to urban public transportation systems. This paper examines the needs of selected U.S. cities as a basis for (1) understanding the vast, various and complex transportation needs of urban areas throughout the country, and (2) assessing the sufficiency of these funds. The sample cities have been placed into three broad categories based on the state of development of their transportation systems. In Category I cities, the essential need is to ensure the survival of bus systems for the use of non‐drivers, or to provide some other viable alternative to the automobile; in Category II cities, the primary needs are to relieve auto congestion and to improve public transportation components, while in Category III cities, the primary need is massive investment to improve and to extend public transportation facilities. It is concluded that the presently intended Federal funding level for transportation will not meet the financial requirements of the Category III cities. 相似文献
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通过安装车载测试系统收集香港港岛山区路段正常行驶工况下尾气中的CO、NOx、HC等污染物和油耗并辅助计算机软件进行分析。研究得出,山区道路设计、地形地貌和驾驶习惯对车辆油耗以及CO、NOx和HC排放有直接关系。可以通过坡道加宽、坡道延长、减少坡道红绿灯等措施减少车辆在山区道路行驶过程中速度变化频率,从而减少油耗以及CO、NOx和HC排放。 相似文献