基于客流需求的城际列车时刻表模型改进研究

列车时刻表的编制是铁路旅客运输组织的关键问题,如何优化时刻表,最大限度缩短旅客的旅行时间,具有重要的理论和现实意义.然而,既有基于客流需求的时刻表优化模型大多数假设列车顺序固定或不允许列车间任意越行,离实际尚有一定差距.针对这一问题,本文以最小化旅客在站等待时间和在车旅行时间的线性加权为优化目标,综合考虑列车停站、区间运行、安全间隔、列车容纳能力等约束,在定序无越行和定序有限越行模型的基础上,构建了更一般的非定序任意越行混合整数二次规划模型,并利用ILOG CPLEX分别进行求解.最后,以某城际高铁为例进行案例研究.结果表明,本文所提的非定序任意越行模型求解质量最好,且能有效减少旅客全程旅行时间,具有可行性.     

基于客运联系特征的中国城镇空间演变态势

空间运输联系反映地理单元间的经济联系,与城镇化进程和区域发展格局息息相关。随着经济发展和城镇化水平的提高,省内客运联系增长速度显著快于省际,省域客运联系呈现内聚化态势;从各区域变化幅度看,内聚化态势围绕三大核心城市群由内而外逐步加强,并呈现较大的南北差异。省际客运联系呈现以京津冀、长三角、珠三角为核心的中心—外围结构,从发展态势看,沿海城市群的极化效应进一步凸显,中西部区域区内联系加强态势初步显现。研究显示:现状城镇空间不平衡特征仍较为突出,尤其南北分化问题凸显;未来城镇空间布局需突出沿海城镇空间的再平衡、促进中西部城镇空间的多中心集聚和加强南北区域协作。     

交通大数据视角看广佛同城

广佛同城发展由来已久,是中国城市群中同城化程度最高的区域。简要分析广佛同城的交通基础设施发展演变历程,并基于模糊大数据(手机信令数据)和准确大数据(运行监测数据)对广佛通勤交通特征进行分析。结合手机信令数据对广州南站的客流组成及空间分布进行研究,对广州南站选址偏远问题进行解析。结果表明:广佛同城具有双向对等性的联系;地铁在同城化推进过程中起到重要的促进作用,拓展同城化活动范围;广州市机动车交通需求管理政策不够系统,非广佛车牌在通勤小汽车中比例超过40%,需要引起足够的关注;广州南站服务的客流中广州客流与佛山客流比为7:3,与对应的常住人口规模比例相当,初步实现了交通战略规划提出的共享理念。     

基于寿命分布的备件需求计算模型分析

根据指数分布、正态分布和威布尔分布的寿命分布类型,对航海装备的一些维修备件进行分类,并提出了在满足备件保障度下这三种寿命分布类型备件的需求计算模型,对一些备件需求预测实例进行了预测计算。     

基于神经网络的道路通行能力与交通需求匹配度判别研究

交通的供需是否匹配关系到城市和枢纽的发展前景。文中在探讨道路通行能力与需求匹配特性的基础上,用BP神经网络理论建立一种交通匹配预测模型。该模型发挥神经网络的优势,对数据并行处理和分布存储,通过训练、学习产生一个非线性映射,自适应地对数据进行预测。通过相关数据实验证明,该神经网络模型有较高的精度,并有较好的适用性。     

确定性联合补充库存问题的EXCEL规划求解法

提出求解确定性联合补充库存问题的新方法——EXCEL规划求解法：通过数学运算将非线性混合整数规划模型转化为整数线性规划模型,然后在EXCEL中通过“规划求解”工具求最优解．通过算例验证,结果表明该方法不但能有效解决此类问题,而且更简单、更直观、更实用．     

空气净化器风道的计算机仿真

在进行空气净化器风道结构的设计中,风道的结构形式对风量起着重要的影响。本文利用ICEPAK计算机仿真软件在设计阶段对空气净化器的风道进行模拟仿真,建立了风道的仿真模型及建模过程,仿真出风道进口处与出口处的空气流速的变化值,进一步研究离心风机的风量与滤层阻力、流量、流速的影响关系。通过实验比较,在不同滤器种类的情况下,验证了风阻对风量的影响大小,证明了空气净化器风道计算机仿真的正确性。     

Air pollution history elucidated from anthropogenic spherules and their magnetic signatures in marine sediments offshore of Southwestern Taiwan

Kaohsiung City and its neighborhood in the southwestern coastal plain of Taiwan have suffered serious air pollution since the region became the largest center for heavy-industry on the island. In order to unravel the air pollution history of the region, four ²¹⁰Pb- and ¹³⁷Cs-dated sediment box cores recovered in 2006 from offshore of this area were chosen for magnetic and petrographic analyses. The data were used to distinguish changes in concentration, composition and grain size of magnetic particles in the sediments due to inputs of anthropogenic magnetic spherules. Sedimentation rates have been reasonably constant for the last one hundred years, except at the core tops which were affected by a turbidite layer induced by a typhoon in 2005. Down-core profiles of mass-specific magnetic susceptibility (χ) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) are similar among the cores, and reflect similar trends to magnetic spherule counts. This reveals that χ and SIRM of modern marine sediments can be used as air pollution indicators for nearby industrialized upwind areas. The studied record indicates that industrialization of the area was gradual during 1950–1980 and boomed afterward, resulting in a high production of airborne magnetic spherules, which is consistent with evidence for poor air quality at that time. Optical and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) surveys of magnetic extracts indicate that the magnetic spherules have grain sizes ranging from a few micrometers up to 50 μm and consist mainly of iron oxides with variable Si, Al, and Ca contents. X-ray diffraction analysis on magnetic extracts from different depths in the cores further indicates that magnetite and pyrrhotite, which are derived from terrigenous detritus, form the magnetic constituents of the sediments before the area was industrialized. In contrast, during the industrial boom, anthropogenic magnetite and hematite spherules became the dominant magnetic particles in the sediments. Down-core profiles of hard isothermal remanent magnetization (HIRM) below the turbidite layer also reveal similar trends to the corresponding magnetic spherule counts, which indicate that the concentration of hematite in the sediments is also closely related to the extent of air pollution. In addition, relatively low values of χ_ARM/χ, which are indicative of coarse magnetic grains, started to occur when large magnetite spherules became significant during the industrialized period. The air pollution history elucidated from our sediment core data not only reflects the development of Kaohsiung from a small village to a highly industrialized metropolitan area in the 20th century, but it is also consistent with the most recent air pollution trends revealed by real time air quality measurements of PM₁₀. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of magnetic parameters for delineating the air pollution history of coastal marine sediments down-wind of nearby industrialized regions.     

交通模型的价值

在既有规划编制导则中,已经明确交通模型和交通需求分析是综合交通体系规划、轨道交通线网规划的重要工作内容。交通模型的价值并非仅仅体现在预测结果和精度上,更在于编制过程中对交通特征和供需关系的分析,对战略方案、系统方案的指导、解释、论证的作用上。但在现实规划编制中,模型的地位和价值在丧失,日益成为项目成果中的摆设品,难以支撑交通需求深入分析,并与战略构思、方案制定相脱节。与此同时,规划实践、大数据、交通模型的发展趋势,亟须重新审视模型的价值,提升模型精细化的定量分析水平。最后,从机制保障、应用推广、功能拓展、科研攻关等方面,提出促进模型价值提升的相关建议。     

大型会展中心交通组织设计研究

对城市大型会展中心进行合理交通组织设计,尽可能减少大型会展中心对周围道路的交通压力,以提高会展中心内外的通畅水平,同时减少城市交通的压力。文章从大型会展中心本身的交通需求特点出发,给出了大型会展中心的交通发生吸引量预测模型,并在此基础上给出了大型会展中心这类建筑的交通组织设计方法及流程,并以成都市"世纪城"新国际会展中心为实例,对其进行交通组织设计,给出切实可行的方案。