A State-of-the-Art Review: Developments in Utility Theory,Prospect Theory and Regret Theory to Investigate Travellers' Behaviour in Situations Involving Travel Time Uncertainty

Abstract

Despite the wide use of utility theory to model travellers' behaviour, the interest in non-expected utility theories has increased due to their potential to capture more realistic behaviour. A main question raised is whether travellers are better described as utility maximizers or should be qualified differently.

This paper presents a literature review on the use of expected utility theory (EUT), prospect theory (PT) and regret theory (RT) to model travellers' behaviour. Gaps in the literature are identified and a discussion about advantages and disadvantages of each theory is presented. A case study illustrates the differences between the theories.

Under certain conditions, PT and RT restrict themselves to EUT. Their added value, however, is the possibility of capturing loss aversion, risk aversion and risk-seeking (PT) and regret aversion (RT). On the practical level, the use of EUT is well established, while contributions of PT and RT are marginal. On the theoretical level, however, RT seems to be (marginally) more suitable to model travellers' behaviour, while EUT and PT are equally suitable. This suggests that the large use of EUT is highly influenced by its very tractable framework. We do not claim the superiority of any theory, but propose to compare them through a systematic review.     

全垫升气垫船操纵运动研究

本文用大振幅平面运动机构对全垫升气垫船模型进行了约束试验，测得了作用在船上的水动力，在此基础上用计算机解气垫船操纵运动微分方程，预报气垫船的回转性能，并与实船试验的结果进行了比较，两者吻合较好。     

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与发达国家不同,我国正处于快速城镇化发展阶段,迫切需要在运输需求预测理论与方法上的创新.为了更科学地进行运输需求预测工作,从而对运输需求有系统精准的把握,基于"运输系统是一类开放的复杂巨系统"及"运输需求预测是一类复杂性问题"的认知,将系统工程中"从定性到定量"的综合集成方法论引入运输需求预测之中,提出基于综合集成方法论的运输需求预测方法,并给出具体执行操作流程.以浙江省城际轨道交通客流预测为例,将研究成果应用于实际的工程项目之中,验证了其有效性.实践结果表明,"从定性到定量"、"人机结合,以人为主"的运输需求预测综合集成方法能够较好地保证预测结论的准度和精度,同时也具有较强的可操作性.     

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为提高通勤者使用公交出行的比例,有效缓解城市交通拥堵,对应用智能公交系统数据(Advanced Public Transportation Systems,APTS)获得公交通勤出行需求的方法进行研究.采集APTS数据,通过对公交IC卡数据和智能调度系统数据的关联获得公交乘客的上车站点信息.根据早、晚高峰的出行频率判断公交通勤乘客,利用通勤出行的时间和空间特征确定居住地点和工作地点.以此基本思路,提出公交卡乘客通勤OD分布估计算法,并应用海量APTS系统数据对算法进行了试验和分析.最后,通过与基于"出行链"的方法进行比较,分析了算法的精度.本文提出的方法具有精度高、可操作性强的优点,为快速、经济地获取公交通勤OD分布提供了一种新的途径.     

在居民收入翻番的同时如何控制物价大幅上涨

本文从调整国民收入初次分配、改善居民内部分配结构、驱动“三驾马车”均衡发展等三个方面探讨了在居民收入翻番的同时,如何控制物价大幅上涨。提出政府和企业应让利,使居民收入与国民经济增长速度基本同步;控制高收入群体未来8年的收入增长幅度,以免低收入群体收入“被增长;合理提高消费增长速度,适度放缓投资及出口增长速度,使三大需求的增长与供给的增长相协调,既可以保持国民经济的健康快速增长,又可以抑制价格总水平过大幅度的上涨。     

《北京交通发展纲要（2004-2020）》实施情况及评估

在北京市进入社会经济现代化、城市化和机动化高速发展时期,交通形势十分严峻的背景下,北京市颁布了《北京交通发展纲要（2004-2020）》（以下简称《纲要》）。对“纲要》颁布以来北京交通取得的成就进行评估,在此基础上总结北京交通发展的成功经验并反思发展过程中存在的问题,为《纲要》的进一步修编提供参考。     

专业旅游城市综合交通规划技术方法研究——以三亚市为例

为完善专业旅游城市的综合交通规划技术体系,通过总结国外专业旅游城市在综合交通规划建设过程中的经验,在识别旅游交通特征的基础上,分析专业旅游城市对交通体系的基本要求。针对专业旅游城市交通规划面临的关键问题和挑战,指出应将旅游交通特征和规律的研究贯穿综合交通规划始终,实现旅游交通与城市居民常规交通高度融合,进而提出综合交通规划技术体系框架。以三亚市为例,重点探讨了专业旅游城市交通设施合理规模的确定,以及交通设施规划基本思路。     

天津市双城战略下的交通特征与发展对策

为更好地促进天津市双城空间战略的实现以及城市交通的可持续发展,基于天津市4次居民出行调查,总结改革开放30年来城市交通在出行强度、出行分布、出行结构方面的交通特征与规律。从用地布局和交通模式两方面有针对性地提出了发展对策。用地布局方面,提出提升滨海新区核心区城市职能、注重职住平衡、提倡土地混合利用的发展策略;交通模式方面,针对双城间交通、双城对外交通、双城内部交通提出了具体策略。     

High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspective

Abstract

This paper quantifies and evaluates, utilising a ‘bottom-up’ approach, the effect on CO₂ emissions of a modal shift from short-haul air travel to high-speed rail (HSR), based on projected passenger movements, between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2010–2030. To date, peer-reviewed studies assessing the CO₂ emissions from these competing modes of high-speed transportation have been restricted principally to a cross-sectional assessment, with a Eurocentric bias. This present comparative study seeks to address a gap in the literature by assessing, longitudinally, the CO₂ emissions associated with the proposed operation of HSR against the ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario between Sydney and Melbourne. Under the assumed 50/50 modal shift, and the Australian government's current renewable electricity target, an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of approximately 14% could be achieved when compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario. This percentage reduction represents a 62 kt reduction in base year, 2010, and a 114 kt reduction in the final year, 2030. In total, the overall reduction achieved by such a modal shift, under the assumed conditions, during the period 2010–2030, equates to approximately 1.87 Mt of CO₂. Importantly, if the electrical energy supply for HSR operations was further ‘decarbonised’, then it follows that a greater emission reduction would be achieved.