What determines commute time choices? A structural equation modelling approach

Abstract

Many researchers have been attracted by the phenomenon of constant travel time, and the time spent on travel has been an important indicator of understanding travellers’ behaviours. This paper is based on a survey conducted in a university in London which includes both objective and subjective variables in relation to commute time and some demographic characteristics. Two conceptual structural models are examined in order to explore the factors determining travellers’ choices. Results of the analysis reveal some interesting relationships: (1) a positive relationship between age and commute time; (2) females are more likely to read or listen to music during their journeys, and their ideal commute time (ICT) and current commute time (CCT) generally tend to be longer; (3) academic staff tend to have the habit of working during their commute, administrative staff tend to commute longer while students tend to spend a shorter time commuting; (4) normally, a habit while travelling is significantly associated with CCT; those with a habit of reading or working during their commute journey tend to have longer commute times and (5) the relationship between CCT and commuters’ ICT and tolerable commute time is positive; both hypothesised causal relationships are significant so that a loop is formed between subjective and objective variables, and thus a dynamic modelling process could be envisaged as temporal sequences of those variables.     

Workplace travel plans: can they be evaluated effectively by experts?

Employers are regularly involved in transport planning and characteristic workplace-oriented tools include: (1) travel plans for building projects, (2) mandatory travel plans, (3) subsidies to employers with an advanced travel plan and (4) best travel plan awards. In all cases, experts judge the level of car use. We argue that decision-makers might benefit from a multiple regression-based benchmark modelling tool that estimates the expected share of the car. In this paper, we estimate the share of car users in the commuting modal split at workplaces. However, since the amount of information available to experts differs, we gradually add information to the model to measure the impact of data availability. Without historic data on modal split, the current share can only be predicted moderately well, i.e. within a 20% range. Besides adding the past, results improve by using homogenous and regional subsamples. Nevertheless, quantitative analyses do not make expert knowledge obsolete.     

Optimal stop spacing and headway of congested transit system considering realistic wait times

Abstract

This paper revisits the classical transit scheduling problem and investigates the relationship between stop spacing and headway, considering realistic wait time and operable transit capacity. Headway and stop spacing are important determinants for planning a transit system, which influence the service level as well as the cost of operation. A mathematical model is developed, and the objective function is user travel time which is minimized by the optimized stop spacing and headway, subject to the constraints of operable fleet size and route capacity. Optimal stop spacing and headway solutions are obtained in a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis is conducted, and the effect of model parameters on user travel time is explored.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practical approach for travel time estimation from point traffic detector data

Accurate estimation of travel time is critical to the success of advanced traffic management systems and advanced traveler information systems. Travel time estimation also provides basic data support for travel time reliability research, which is being recognized as an important performance measure of the transportation system. This paper investigates a number of methods to address the three major issues associated with travel time estimation from point traffic detector data: data filling for missing or error data, speed transformation from time‐mean speed to space‐mean speed, and travel time estimation that converts the speeds recorded at detector locations to travel time along the highway segment. The case study results show that the spatial and temporal interpolation of missing data and the transformation to space‐mean speed improve the accuracy of the estimates of travel time. The results also indicate that the piecewise constant‐acceleration‐based method developed in this study and the average speed method produce better results than the other three methods proposed in previous studies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated smart feeder/shuttle transit service: simulation of new routing strategies

The idea of designing an integrated smart feeder/shuttle service stemmed from the need to overcome the problem of using an excessive number of cars arriving and parking at a train station within the same time span. This problem results in high parking demand around the train station. Moreover, some potential train riders will, instead, use their cars and hence become a party to increasing the traffic congestion. This work develops a new idea of an integrated and innovative feeder/shuttle system with new operating and routing concepts. The fulfilled objectives are as follows: (i) to construct and examine different operating strategies from both the user and operator perspectives; (ii) to examine different routing models and scenarios; and (iii) to construct a simulation tool for (i) and (ii). Ten different routing strategies are examined, with all the combinations of fixed/flexible routes, fixed/flexible schedules, a unidirectional or bidirectional concept, and shortcut (shortest path) and/or short‐turn (turnaround) concepts. These strategies are investigated by employing a simulation model specifically developed and constructed for this purpose. This simulation model is used in a case study of Castro Valley in California in which the feeder/shuttle service is coordinated with the Bay Area Rapid Transit service, and the 10 routing strategies are compared in regard to four fleet‐size scenarios. One of the interesting results found is that the fixed‐route and flexible‐route concepts are comparable in performance measures when applying a combination of operating strategies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating Flexible Transport Solutions

Abstract

Flexible transport services (FTS) have been of increasing interest in developing countries as a bridge between the use of personal car travel and fixed route transit services. This paper reports on findings from a recent study in Queensland Australia, which identified lessons from an international review and implications for Australia. Potential strategic directions, including a vision, mission, key result areas, strategies, and identified means of measuring performance are described. Evaluation criteria for assessing flexible transport proposals were developed, and approaches to identifying and assessing needs and demands outlined. The use of emerging technologies is also a key element of successful flexible transport services.     

北京市中小学生出行特征及校车方案设计原则研究

针对近年来私人小汽车接送学生日益普遍,使得学校周边交通状况日益恶化的问题,以北京西部城郊的6所小学和6所中学为研究对象,进行问卷调查,研究了中小学出行特征及学生家长对校车开行的需求及意见.在此基础上,从管理方案、人员及资金、法律监管、线路规划方面设计了校车开行方案.     

引入忠诚度变量的城际出行方式动态选择行为研究

针对中国城市群的快速形成与发展,结合城市群城际出行特点,研究城市群城际出行方式选择行为.基于非集计理论,对效用函数引入刻画动态选择行为的忠诚度变量,抓住了出行者出行方式选择的关联性.利用了平滑指数计算忠诚度变量,既反映了忠诚度的持续性也考虑了突变性.将忠诚度变量作为影响因素引入模型的可观测效用部分,建立出行者城际出行方式选择Mixed Logit模型.在大量调查问卷基础上,通过对引入前后的模型对比分析计算得出,忠诚度变量加入后,模型中其他的出行影响因素效用强度明显削弱,其产生的正效用证明了城际出行选择是一种带有倾向性的行为反应,具有某种出行方式选择的持续性、依赖性和突变性,说明出行者过往的出行体验对选择心理具有显著的影响,也说明构建的模型很好地还原了出行方式选择的动态特性.