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631.
A bayesian dynamic linear model approach for real-time short-term freeway travel time prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Xiang Fei Chung-Cheng Lu Ke Liu 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2011,19(6):1306-1318
This paper presents a Bayesian inference-based dynamic linear model (DLM) to predict online short-term travel time on a freeway stretch. The proposed method considers the predicted freeway travel time as the sum of the median of historical travel times, time-varying random variations in travel time, and a model evolution error, where the median is employed to recognize the primary travel time pattern while the variation captures unexpected supply (i.e. capacity) reduction and demand fluctuations. Bayesian forecasting is a learning process that revises sequentially the state of a priori knowledge of travel time based on newly available information. The prediction result is a posterior travel time distribution that can be employed to generate a single-value (typically but not necessarily the mean) travel time as well as a confidence interval representing the uncertainty of travel time prediction. To better track travel time fluctuations during non-recurrent congestion due to unforeseen events (e.g., incidents, accidents, or bad weather), the DLM is integrated into an adaptive control framework that can automatically learn and adjust the system evolution noise level. The experiment results based on the real loop detector data of an I-66 segment in Northern Virginia suggest that the proposed method is able to provide accurate and reliable travel time prediction under both recurrent and non-recurrent traffic conditions. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the economic implications of the liberalization of air transportation across the Taiwan Strait to the region's aviation industries. Our analysis suggests that (1) liberalization has brought substantial benefits to airports and airlines in Mainland China and Taiwan. Negative impacts to Hong Kong are largely compensated by traffic increase in routes linking Mainland China. (2) In general, Taiwanese airports and airlines have benefited more from liberalization compared to airports and airlines on the mainland and Hong Kong. Such asymmetric effect is due to the larger size of the Mainland Chinese aviation market, which allows Taiwanese airlines to exploit network-related benefits. (3) Our investigation suggests that foreign hub carriers and medium sized Chinese airports will benefit most from China's future liberalizations. 相似文献
634.
This paper describes a series of focus groups that were undertaken in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland to examine the challenges faced by older people in rural Ireland when trying to make trips. The paper outlines transport policy in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and describes the activity patterns of older trip makers and the modes they use. It also discusses some of the contrasts between challenges faced by older men and older women. Both older men and older women experience a shrinking in activity spaces and activity participation when older. Older women are less likely to drive and to own a car and so are seriously impacted by loss of a spouse in terms of their unmet travel needs. However, older men also experience difficulties: the alternatives that are available (such as community transport schemes) provide trips and services that are more attractive to women. In addition, the car dependent lifestyles of men throughout their adult lives seems to make them less prepared for life without a car than older women. 相似文献
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针对大连市主城区进行通勤出行方式的意向偏好调查.选取7家企事业单位的200名驾车通勤者作为研究对象,建立以私家车、公共汽车为选择对象的二元Logit模型,研究停车收费及公交服务水平的变化对不同特性停车者的出行选择方式影响.结果表明:停车收费费率及公交服务水平对城市居民的通勤出行方式选择有显著影响.将合理的停车收费体系与提高公共交通服务水平相结合,是一种优秀的交通需求管理手段. 相似文献
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分析了公交站点间车辆运行过程,将行程预测时间划分为交叉口排队等待时间、路段行驶时间和停站时间3个部分,利用交通波理论和延误三角形,分别建立了无公交专用车道和有公交专用车道2种情况下排队等待时间的动态预测模型;根据乘客到站规律和上下车规律,提出了公交车进站停靠时间模型;针对无公交专用车道条件下的时间预测方法进行了实例演算.实验数据表明,基于交通波行程时间预测方法具有较高的精度,可以满足站点间行程时间预报要求. 相似文献
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以一辆2009款丰田卡罗拉自动空调前出风口无风的故障为例,介绍其自动空调系统的基本组成、工作原理、各主要部件的功用以及故障检修方法。 相似文献