长洲枢纽船闸滞航原因分析及解决方案探讨

文章分析了西江下游长洲枢纽船闸附近江面大量船舶滞航的根本原因,结合国内外船闸管理机构的先进经验,提出了解决长洲枢纽船闸滞航问题的方案以及优化船闸管理与维护的方法。     

考虑乘客需求的城市轨道交通服务质量评价

城市轨道交通服务质量评价是行业监管部门为监督和评估轨道交通运营服务水平,定期开展的考核工作。传统的城市轨道交通服务质量评价采用比较各线路总体得分的形式,对乘客的主体感知和真实需求的探讨较少。为提高城市轨道交通服务质量,基于乘客的感知及需求构建城市轨道交通服务质量评价指标体系,建立基于结构方程模型(structural equation modeling,SEM)及贝叶斯网络的综合评价模型。通过SEM评估模型中变量之间的关系,利用贝叶斯推理与诊断对其进行辅助决策,以更准确地揭示各变量对服务质量的影响程度,有针对性地优化服务方案,多维度地满足乘客需求。最后以昆明市轨道交通为例,对其服务质量进行评价。研究结果表明：设施可靠、人工服务与出行安全对服务质量的影响幅度较大;通过对模型未知参数的拟合优度进行评价,得到偏差信息准则DIC=29>10,验证了本文所提模型的可行性与适用性。     

区域性城际轨道交通客流预测方法研究

分析了区域性城际轨道交通规划与传统交通规划方法的差异,提出了城际轨道交通客流的特点,以及以影响范围、交通小区划分、交通方式分担、诱增客流、时间价值为要点的区域性城际轨道交通客流预测方法。     

市域快速轨道交通线行车间隔优化问题研究

针对市域快速轨道交通线的客流分布和运输组织方式的复杂性,从客流分布特性、列车交路形式和服务水平3方面,阐述了影响行车间隔的主要因素,并分析了不同的行车间隔对实际客流需求以及系统运输能力的影响,给出变化趋势曲线,分析了行车间隔的优化调整。     

潜艇舱室大气中金属元素的X-射线荧光光谱法检测

建立了X-射线荧光光谱仪对潜艇舱室大气中Cr、Mn、Fe、Co、Ni、Cu等10种金属元素的快速分析方法。利用醋酸纤维素微孔滤膜对潜艇舱室大气进行采样,用X射线荧光光谱仪对滤膜进行检测,可同时检测10种金属元素。方法具有简便准确、元素分析含量适应范围宽等优点。方法的相对标准偏差在0.99%~3.04%,回收率在94.2%~98.4%。     

基于出行方式决策过程的价格调控策略辅助措施研究

从提高个体在价格调控策略下的绿色出行意向入手，制定价格调控策略的辅助措施是提升价格调控策略有效性的重要手段.本文基于出行决策行为变化自调节阶段模型，构建了价格调控策略下的居民出行方式决策过程概念模型.利用拥堵收费和奖励策略下的出行方式决策心理调查数据，基于结构方程模型，对比分析了拥堵收费和奖励策略下不同机动化出行习惯强度个体通勤与非通勤出行方式决策心理的差异化特征.最后，针对出行方式决策过程中动机形成阶段，计划行为阶段，以及实施计划阶段的心理特征，分别提出了价格调控策略的辅助措施，为价格调控策略实施提供了更好的辅助决策支持.     

城市跨河通道布局研究——以吴淞江工程(上海段)为例

为了研究城市化进程中城市内河改造后应如何统筹规划跨河通道,从跨河通道方式入题,定性分析国内外典型跨河通道布局方案,基本得出了合理的跨河通道间距。结合吴淞江工程(上海段)跨河通道的布局方案进行实例分析,最终确定了较为合理的布局方案,并对建成后的桥梁布局进行了交通适应性分析,定量验证了间距的合理性。     

Structure and dynamics of non-suburban passenger travel demand in Indian railways

In this paper we derive long run structural relationships for all the three classes, viz. upper, second and ordinary second class, of non-suburban long distance passenger transport demand for Indian railways using annual time series data for 1970–1995. We employ some of the recent developments in multivariate dynamic econometric time series modeling including estimation of long-run structural cointegrating relationships, short-run dynamics and measurement of the effects of shocks and their persistence on evolution of the dynamic passenger transport demand system. The models are estimated using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework, which allows for endogeneity of regressors. The demand systems are found to be stable for all the classes in the long run and they converge to equilibrium in a period of around 2–4 years after a typical system-wide shock. Any disequilibrium in the short-run is corrected in the long-run with adjustments in passenger transport demand and the price variable, i.e. real rate charged per passenger kilometer. Results show that travel demand in all classes would rise with income, although the rise is less than proportionate in the case of ordinary class. High price elasticity in long-run and short-run impulse responses indicate that passenger fare hike could lead to substantial decline in travel demand leading to decline in revenue earnings of the railways. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modal shift in Eastern Germany

The economic and political reunification of Germany in 1990 unleashed a transportation revolution in Eastern Germany. After forty years of public transport dominance under socialism, auto ownership and use skyrocketed with the transition to capitalism. In only three years, ridership on public transport fell by almost 50%, and auto registrations per 1,000 population rose by almost 60%. The main reason for the sudden shift in modal split is the large increase in real per-capita incomes of Eastern Germans. Their purchasing power rose dramatically thanks to massive financial aid from Western Germany and access to hard currency for the first time. In addition, the relative cost of auto use has fallen sharply since reunification because public transport fares rose ten-fold, while gasoline prices and auto prices fell. The massive shift from public transport to the auto has caused severe problems of pollution, safety, equity, and congestion in Eastern German cities, partly because of the suddenness of the modal shift. Urban transport policy in Eastern Germany should adopt some of the strategies used for years in Western Germany to tame the automobile, while at the same time allowing high levels of auto ownership. Such strategies include auto-free zones, traffic calming, extensive bicycle pathways, vehicle emission standards, and parking restrictions. Finally, large investments will have to be made in Eastern Germany's dilapidated roadway and public transport infrastructure.     

信号电气设备空气断路器的种类和选用

城轨交通信号系统的各设备负载都由电源屏和UPS统一供电,而能达到各负载分路供电的电气元件则是通过空气断路器完成.在信号系统的维护过程中,空气断路器选择不当,可能带来很多麻烦.因此,从断路器的种类、功能、应用等几方面,详细介绍了断路器选用时的注意事项.