Probabilistic assessment of aviation CO2 emission targets

Passenger demand for air transportation is expected to continue growing into the future. The increase in operations will undoubtedly lead to an escalation in harmful carbon dioxide emissions, an adverse effect that governing bodies have been striving to mitigate. The International Air Transport Association has set aggressive environmental targets for the global aviation industry. This paper investigates the achievability of those targets in the US using a top-down partial equilibrium model of the aviation system complemented with a previously developed fleet turnover procedure. Three ‘enablers’ are considered: aircraft technologies, operational improvements and sustainable biofuels. To account for sources of uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to run a multitude of scenarios. It was found that the likelihood of meeting all targets is extremely low (0.3%) for the expected demand growth rates in the US. Results show that biofuels have the most impact on system CO₂ emissions, responsible for an average 64% of the total savings by 2050 (with aircraft technologies and operational improvements responsible for 31% and 5%, respectively). However, this impact is associated with high uncertainty and very dependent on both biofuel type and availability.     

Effects of noise exposure of other people on aircraft noise tolerability using a reference point approach

Reactions to aircraft noise resulting from an airport development vary considerably among individuals. This paper examines whether the noise level tolerated by individuals is affected when they compare their own situation to the situations of other people who are more severely affected by the noise. We modeled the individual noise tolerability by adopting the reference point concept and the value function of prospect theory. A questionnaire assessed different levels of noise-affected zones at a hypothetical airport. Individual noise tolerable level was measured by a prerecorded aircraft noise presented via headphones. Decision-making associated with the reported satisfaction level regarding the changes in operational flight frequency settings at the airport. An interview survey was conducted with residents near Manila airport in the Philippines. We applied genetic algorithm to jointly estimate the parameters for noise tolerability model and the value function. Results showed that individuals tolerated more overhead flights when they considered the situations of other people worse affected by the noise than they were. The tendency of noise tolerability increased with the severity of noise exposure situations of other people, but lower reactions to noise escalation. We also observed diminishing sensitivity to changes in noise relative to the noise tolerable level. The aircraft noise tolerability and the consideration of noise exposure situations of other people appeared to be a vital aspect to be considered in airport noise management and policy.     

基于迷宫问题遗传算法的复合材料铺层数量优化

研究使用最少铺层数量,使产品达到性能指标的复合材料铺层优化问题。使用遗传算法,参考迷宫问题的解决方法,保留普通遗传算法的框架,改变求染色体的适应度值的计算过程,找出满足要求的最少铺层数量的解。在求适应度值过程中增加逐位解释环节,以得不同铺层数量的解。在求适应度值过程中增加解码、剔除无效项、对称环节,以满足复合材料铺层角角度离散、铺层角要少于4层连续相同、对称这些常见要求。结合示例,指出将逐位解释范围分段,可以提高计算效率。该方法实现了对复合材料产品的铺层数量和角度的同时优化,可以实现产品的经济性和轻量化。     

The punctuality performance of aircraft rotations in a network of airports

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of aircraft turnaround performance at airports on the schedule punctuality of aircraft rotations in a network of airports. A mathematical model is applied, composed of two sub-models, namely the aircraft turnaround model (turnaround simulations) and the enroute model (enroute flight time simulations). A Markovian type model is featured in the aircraft turnaround model to simulate the operation of aircraft turnarounds at an airport by considering operational uncertainties and schedule punctuality variance. In addition, stochastic Monte Carlo simulations are employed to carry out stochastic sampling and simulations in both the aircraft turnaround model and the enroute model. Results of simulations show the robustness of the aircraft rotation model in capturing uncertainties from aircraft rotations. The propagation of knock-on delays in aircraft rotations is found to be significant when the short-connection-time policy is used by an airline at its hub airport. It is also found that the proper inclusion of schedule buffer time in the aircraft rotation schedule helps control the propagation of knock-on delays and, therefore, stabilize the punctuality performance of aircraft rotations.     

Exploiting floating car data for time-dependent Origin–Destination matrices estimation

The study evaluates the added value generated by estimating dynamic demand matrices by information gathered from Floating Car Data (FCD).

Firstly, adopting a large dataset of FCD collected in Rome, Italy, during May 2010, all the monitored trips on a specific district of the city (Eur district) have been collected and analysed in terms of (i) spatial and temporal distribution; (ii) actual route choices and travel times. The data analysis showed that demand data from FCD are usually not suitable to retrieve directly demand matrices, due to a strong dependence of this information from the penetration rate of the monitoring device. Instead, origin–destination travel times and route choice probabilities from FCD are a much more reliable and powerful information with respect to FCD origin–destination flows, since they represent the traffic conditions and behaviors that vehicles experiment along the path.

Thus, several synthetic experiments have been conducted adopting both travel times and route choice probabilities as additional information, with respect to standard link measurements, in the dynamic demand estimation problem. Results demonstrated the strength and robustness associated to these network based data, while link measurements alone are not able to define the real traffic pattern. Adopting both the information of origin–destination travel times and route choice probabilities during the demand estimation process, the spatial and temporal reliability of the estimated demand matrices consistently increases.     

A linear complementarity method for the solution of vertical vehicle–track interaction

A new method is proposed for the solution of the vertical vehicle–track interaction including a separation between wheel and rail. The vehicle is modelled as a multi-body system using rigid bodies, and the track is treated as a three-layer beam model in which the rail is considered as an Euler-Bernoulli beam and both the sleepers and the ballast are represented by lumped masses. A linear complementarity formulation is directly established using a combination of the wheel–rail normal contact condition and the generalised-α method. This linear complementarity problem is solved using the Lemke algorithm, and the wheel–rail contact force can be obtained. Then the dynamic responses of the vehicle and the track are solved without iteration based on the generalised-α method. The same equations of motion for the vehicle and track are adopted at the different wheel–rail contact situations. This method can remove some restrictions, that is, time-dependent mass, damping and stiffness matrices of the coupled system, multiple equations of motion for the different contact situations and the effect of the contact stiffness. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective for simulating the vehicle–track interaction including a separation between wheel and rail.     

设计阶段公路工程造价编制存在的问题及预防措施

当今公路建设投资巨大,公路工程勘察设计对公路工程建设的总造价影响重大。在设计阶段由于公路工程造价编制人员本身技术水平以及赶时间赶任务等原因,导致在编制公路工程造价过程中出现若干问题,影响了工程造价的准确性。针对以上情况,本文总结归纳出在设计阶段编制公路工程造价过程中出现的若干问题,提出了相应的预防措施。     

电动汽车动力电池公告检测中存在的问题及建议

以动力锂电池为例,重点介绍其在一致性、安全性和电性能这三方面的公告检测中存在的主要问题并提出建议,为国内电动汽车的研发提供参考,以促进电动汽车动力电池质量的提高和技术的发展.